Showing posts with label PUBLIC INTEREST. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PUBLIC INTEREST. Show all posts

Friday 8 October 2021

AFGHAN REGIME CHANGE AND US: THE SWORD OF DAMOCLES WE DON'T SEE

 

Men From Skies

The whole world watched in horror, live on TV, the crowd either ignorant of the consequences or hopelessly desperate to find space inside or outside, running along the huge military aircraft taxiing out for takeoff.

Few smuggled themselves into the undercarriage space that offered safety till the retracting landing gear claimed its space and spill out human remains before landing. Many clambered onto the wings and held on to each other and whatever else they could hold. Hopes seldom secure one against airstream of a plane in flight. Sooner than they thought, they gained height, only to fall from the sky. Men rained down from the skies above! Those who managed space within the aircraft escaped, at least for now.

The human tragedy that unfolded itself in Afghanistan in the month of Aug 2021 will haunt humanity for long. The photograph of Major General Chris Donahue, Commander U.S. Army 82nd Airborne Division, walking back, consumed in the ‘night vision device green’, will remind US lawmakers for long, of another regime change gone wrong.

Regime Change

Successful or not, Americans have either carried out or attempted to carry out ‘regime changes’ across the world. But, the Afghan story remains unparalleled.

It all started on 7 October 2001 with a night bombing to decimate enemies of the US. It ended up as chaos on 30 August 2021. USA suffered more than 2,400 combatants and 1,800 civilian dead and more than 20,700 combatants wounded. It created 26 Lakh Afghan refugees and displaced 35 Lakhs internally. It took USA 20 years and $ 3 trillion to remove Taliban from power and reinstall Taliban!

The mighty US, turned hapless and negotiated with those, they once declared terrorists. The regime change presented the world with the Hobson’s choice of accepting or recognizing Taliban regime at the helm in Afghanistan. What an irony, those at the high table of geopolitics are already racing against each other to negotiate their terms of business with the same very people they called primitive, barbaric and fanatic. While governments the world over are trying to find reasons and excuses to reach common grounds with Taliban, they blissfully turn blind eye to something sinister, the ‘Sword of Damocles, emanating from the graveyard of empires.

What could it be ?

The Sword of Damocles

Damocles the obsequious courtier of Dionysius I, the 4th-century BC ruler of Syracuse, Sicily at least realised in time, the perils of the razor-sharp sword hanging over his head on a slender single strand of horse tail hair. We as individuals or as societies don’t realise there is one over each one of us! 

What is it that we must look out for?

Geopolitically it's a mess out there. No one knows who is in control. Anyone worth anything is trying to find ways and means to connect with those once considered pariahs. There are groups within trying to upstage each other for control of the landlocked country, forever in turmoil. Where it will lead to and when; nobody is sure. 

Under conditions of geopolitical uncertainty, countries often review bilateral relations, trade and business.  Everyone still there is either trying to hold on to a turf, a bargaining chip or create a new one.

As far as India-Afghanistan is concerned, bilateral trade is truly insignificant both in volume and importance. Geopolitically we seem to have been edged out as of now and our projects worth $ 3 billion, as of today, is a candle in the wind. However, it could become the seed, if it ever happens, for rekindling the much talked about ‘people to people’ relationship. Irrespective of what ‘people to people’ relationship means or ever meant, it is the very same people who chose to sideline and ignore India.

As regards domestic politics, reassuring for the ruling dispensation, the opposition seems to have switched on the ‘silence mode’ on the Afghanistan. There seems to be convergence on what various political parties think about the crisis and how it should be handled. 

Unfortunately, nobody seems to notice the sword of Damocles! It is present everywhere across the world, in every nook and corner of our neighbourhood and they have their origins in Afghanistan! It’s about opium and its drug derivatives.

Menace is Around the Corner

Talk of anything out of Afghanistan, one is tempted to first consider the spread of fundamentalism and Terror. But it is opium and its derivatives from Afghanistan that is now consuming the world. Though news emerging out of Afghanistan tend to indicate that Taliban is cracking down on drug trade in the country, it is believed that drugs had a significant role in financing Taliban’s come back.

The surge in supply of Heroin the world is witnessing is being attributed to crackdown by Taliban, forcing drug traders to ship out huge quantities of drugs in various forms into safe havens. But it is also common knowledge that they are in dire need of hard cash! If reports are to be believed, Taliban could be earning sixty percent of their annual revenue from illicit narcotics.

Whatever be the role of Taliban in drug trade or their intent to curtail it, the fact remains that there is a huge pile of drugs already out in the streets around us. More is likely to arrive. It has to be sold and it will find clients. They will create clients somehow. Some of us or our acquaintances may already be under its capitulating influence. Each gram of the substance found, captured and destroyed, represents a mountain of it already in the streets on sale. 

Anyone could be prey!

Drugs and drug trafficking brings along its wake a series law and order issues. It impairs societal peace and wreaks havoc wherever it reaches. it finally kills the society itself.  With such large quantities up for sale, law enforcing agencies must be up on the lookout. 

Politics and ideologies apart, if we all as responsible citizens do not come together, we may end up paying a deadly price.

Saturday 7 August 2021

Figures: Truth Opinion and Challenge

Destroying Models

Opinion and truth, make a strange couple. Opinions, are created. It can even destroy truth.  Loud anchors and doctored visuals dish out facts distorted beyond recognition, tell-tale marks intact, persuading us to believe. As truth lie buried deep, opinions cloud our thoughts and dictate our actions. Welcome to the world of prime-time TV discussions!

The prime-time discussion one day was dedicated to the figures of seroprevalence in the country. Results of the fourth round of national sero-survey conducted by the ICMR had just become 'known'. Some participants seemed genuinely concerned. One, visibly upset, was breathing fire.  

Look at the serosurveillance figures! Kerala is the lowest in the country! Their immunity is the lowest. One of the smallest states, the biggest contributor to covid cases in the country, more than half the country’s cases from there.

In another outburst on a regional channel a self-depreciating participant lamented,

The Kerala model, touted as the best was an illusion.”

A state, acknowledged for its efficiency in handling epidemics, was under intense criticism.

People with poor immunity? Super spreaders?

What is the Truth?


Speaking Figures

Yes; Kerala really has the lowest seroprevalence figures in the country.

State

Seroprevalence

State

Seroprevalence

MP

79.00%

Punjab

66.50%

Rajasthan

76.20%

Telangana

63.10%

Bihar

75.90%

Jammu & Kashmir

63.00%

Gujarat

75.30%

Himachal Pradesh

62.00%

Chhattisgarh

74.60%

Jharkhand

61.20%

Uttarakhand

73.10%

West Bengal

60.90%

UP

71.00%

Haryana

60.10%

Andhra Pradesh

70.20%

Maharashtra

58.00%

Karnataka

69.80%

Assam

50.30%

Tamil Nadu

69.20%

Kerala

44.40%

Odisha

68.10%

 

 

Kerala is also reporting large incidence of daily new Covid infections. Kerala component exerts significant influence on the national figures.

     * Figure corresponding to 23rd Jul seems to have been clubbed with that of 24th. [i]

On 3rd Aug, of all the new cases reported in India, 55.54% was from Kerala alone, a huge jump from 45.78% the previous day.


In all fairness to seething anchors, most of them clearly with not-so hidden agenda, and party spokespersons, present solely for pushing political ends, every word of the facts placed were indisputably true. However, the inferences drawn and accusations being heaped were bordering the ridiculous. Claims of great work by spokespersons of parties in power and accusations of incompetence by others, both beg rebuttals. Commercial and political compulsions demand rhetoric. 

 

Implications of Seroprevalence

Seroprevalence indicates the population segment that has developed antibodies. People develop antibodies to novel coronavirus, either through infection or vaccination. One doesn’t necessarily have to fall sick with infection to acquire antibodies. Asymptomatic and unreported infections also produce antibodies.

According to the survey, 79% of the population in Madhya Pradesh, as against just 44.40% in Kerala, has already acquired the antibodies. As a corollary, it also means that above 65% of those in Kerala are still susceptible to covid infection. States with high seroprevalence are likely to have lesser cases of covid infections since they may be close to achieving herd immunity.

Why does Kerala have such low seroprevalence?

  

Complacency?

Initial days of infection clearly overwhelmed the infrastructure. There were countless heart wrenching stories of people dying without getting beds in hospitals. Many having managed beds, faced shortages of ventilators and even oxygen. Isolation of patients was the only way to control the wildfire-like spread. Thus came the National lockdown, followed by series of State controlled lockdowns. Everyone, everywhere was shouting “social distancing” to flatten the curve’! The flat curve containment strategy aimed to slow down the rate of infection, preventing medical facilities from being overwhelmed.

Kerala was the first state to report covid infection. Given an estimated total population of 3,53,36,581as on 08 Aug 2021, it has cumulatively reported 34.9 lakh cases of covid, second only to Maharashtra, leaving all populous states behind! It means that only 9.88% of its population has contacted covid! What about seroprevalence numbers? There is a gap to be bridged!

The apparently low, 44.40% seroprevalence effectively means Kerala succeeded in restricting infection and keeping about 65% of its population away from infection even well into the second wave, no mean feat for the densely populated state. The state actually flattened the curve and successfully staggered the spread. By any standards, it is an amazing epidemic control activity. Political animosity, inability to read and understand figures should not diminish the sheen of a gigantic achievement.


Mortality and Infection

The numbers in the public domain are those which the states officially report. It is commonly believed that all states, despite vehement denials, underreported covid infection and mortality. Such reports with statistics are in the public domain, though not officially authenticated. Interestingly, even those reports reveal that Kerala has the least under-reporting!

Deaths, irreparable loss for those affected, do become statistics. Despite best efforts Kerala too reported many deaths.  



Deaths, when considered as a percentage of infection, Kerala seems to have controlled, despite rising figures of infection. Primary health centres and the medical fraternity deserve credit.


The state’s covid mortality rate is also well below the national average. 


Achievements aside, why is infection increasing?

Policy flaws? Implementation deficit? 

Is there something that we are missing out?

 

Price of Compliance?

Experts hold the aggressive delta variant responsible for the return and increase in infection world over. If the delta variant alone was responsible, then numbers would have shot up across India. That is apparently not happening.

Why is Kerala then different from others?

Wide spread underreporting aside, it is possible that the population in other states have already been exposed to the virus and have already acquired antibodies. Therefore, they now show lesser numbers. Kerala enforced masks amongst the population. Keralites who had taken instructions very seriously now find themselves most susceptible to the virus! Numbers certainly point to it.

With neighbours insisting on RTPCR tests each time, ignoring vaccination certificates, crossing over into Tamil Nadu and Karnataka has become a costly affair for Keralites.

Kerala seems to be paying a price for compliance.

 

Boundaries of Science

The scientific community has consistently changed its opinion about Covid and its spread. From ‘spread by physical contact’ that led to harsh ‘social distancing norms’, medical fraternity seems to have now settled for ‘aerial route’ as the favoured mode of spread. The society has moved a long way from patient victimization to home isolation and micro containment policies. 

Accept it or not, it is very clear, that Covid is here to stay for good and that we will have to live with it. Our survival so far, is less about our scientific and medical competencies but more about survival compulsions of the virus itself. Corona virus is mutating fast, not for acquiring more lethality, but with the aim of prolonging its own longevity, which can happen only if its human host is alive.

Hold our pride and arrogance back, it is the existential compulsions of the virus that grants us the mercy of survival. We need to augment our efforts in that direction. Hitting herd immunity at the earliest is our best escape route.

 

We, The Herd

Coronavirus is not bound by geographical, political or religious boundaries. It does not differentiate between caste, creed, colour, gender, and doesn't bother for any reservation schemes. Politicians can manage data and manipulate visibility. But the virus seems to deliberately ignore them and prove all divisive theories wrong. The only effective way forward is to consider all the people around as part of the same herd. Faster the herd attains immunity, better it is for each member of the herd. This is possible only through very aggressive vaccination programs and not by sustained isolation.

 

Vaccine Management

Vaccination may not prevent infection. but as of now we know, it protects. It hits even those vaccinated but with relatively less severity.

The most susceptible region as of now is Kerala. Authorities must move in quickly and vaccinate each one in Kerala. It’s a tall order considering the current process of vaccination. As on 08 Aug, only 62,69,657 people in Kerala have received both the doses. It makes just 17.74% of the population. That leaves the authorities a humongous 82% of the population to be protected.

In absolute numbers, considering the total requirement of 7,06,73,162 doses for 3,53,36,581 people, a total of only 2,13,03,626 doses (1,50,33,969 first & 62,69,657 second) have been administered till 6th Aug. It leaves the administration with the burden of administering 4,93,69,536 doses more. Considering the state’s vaccination abilities, (5,06,397 doses on 24 Jul and 4.91 lakh doses on 24 Jul) the target is not difficult to achieve. If Kerala can earnestly adhere to four lakh shots a day, it will still take 124 days to cover the population.

 

The Challenge

The Health Minster has a challenge on her hands. The real challenge is vaccine availability. That rests with the Central Government. It will be prudent for the central government to push the maximum quantum of vaccines to Kerala, with lowest seroprevalence.  With an efficient network of primary health centers and medical workers at par with the best in the world, the task can be considered accomplished.



[i] All figures used for the graphs here have been culled from the government site in the public domain. The figures against 23rd Jul have been shown as zero. However, the figures of 24th show substantial spike indicating likelihood of the two days figures getting added.

Wednesday 21 July 2021

Watch Out! This Solution Too Could Be A Problem Soon!

 

Solutions! Really?

The earth is infested with discarded PET bottles and plastic carry bags. Bobbing along waves, choking waterways and making up most of landfills, each piece a folly of mankind. Micro plastics have invaded potable water and aqua marine food source and our existence contaminated. Plastics, once touted as the solution to many a problem, have become the most pervasive environmental risk! Solution becoming a problem?

Computers determine how we live, whether we use it ourselves or not. It is deployed even to influence our thoughts and emotions, thereby dictating our choices and actions, in ways beyond what we can fathom. Nothing is beyond the reach of these binary logic machines. While we enjoy benefits of information technology applications, we also suffer unstoppable loss of privacy and hopeless dependence. Control of mankind is slowly coming to rest at the mercy of these machines. Once purely meant for mathematical applications, they now evoke both awe and shock with what it can do. Just one machine and a pair of mad hands, things could truly go haywire! Another solution becoming a problem?

National and international politics, business, economics, science, governance, in fact every possible field relevant to human existence has a history of problems incarnating as solutions.

You think it is restricted only to such mega issues?

Take a close look at one’s personal life!  

Many current problems might have roots in those very solutions that one might have adopted. Toxic relations, broken marriages, financial losses, stress and strain and maybe every personal problem could be the by-product of a ‘solution’ adopted.

Can’t find it? Maybe one is not looking close enough.

 

Longevity of Solutions

Solution is an answer to a problem, the means chosen amongst available or generated choices to mitigate a situation. Both, the process of generating choices and choosing one amongst them, are input dependent and time relevant. To a large extent it depends on our understanding of the problem, its root causes and implications. Longevity of the solution’s relevance depends primarily on the designer’s ‘etiognosis - diagnosis- prognosis’ skills.

Change inputs, solutions differ. Change time coordinates solutions become irrelevant. It is impossible to create fit-all solutions relevant for all times to come. Does it mean that, there are no perfect solutions? Yes; almost impossible.  Then what?

 

Designing Solutions

There is always the probability of having missed an input or a chance to get more inputs about the problem at hand. Waiting for all possible inputs to emerge for designing solutions could indefinitely delay finalising solutions and render it irrelevant. Inadequacy of inputs and urgency of situations are challenges to finding solutions. Securing acceptance and implementation is no less challenging.

Ability to diagnose problems and pinpoint causative factors help understand situations. Most have it in fair measure, or so we think. Prognostic skills help visualise how situations unfold in time. Most claim to have it, so they think. Application of the three skills helps us design practical solutions. Solutions that transcend time make visionaries out of mortals who designed them. But, not even the best solution is timeproof.

Solutions that reap instant relief, receive instant traction, wide acceptance and garner followers to defend. But over time, popular support notwithstanding, efficacy of solutions diminishes and flaws become glaring and undefendable. Even the best thought solution could sometime become a problem by itself.

Why do solutions become problem?

 

Confirmation Bias?

A solution becomes a problem, when it has lost its relevance but is still allowed to continue its redundant existence. Circumstances that necessitated its birth would have long ceased to exist but solutions continue to persist. Local, regional, national and international landscapes are littered with such solutions.

Persistence to continue with it rather than discarding it might be due to economic, political administrative or other compulsions. The whole world knows about plastic-contamination. Yet, we continue producing it by the tonnes each day. Why? Economic and political reasons? Greed and inability? Inertia or fear? Personal problems likewise have definite reasons. Why not reconsider? Ego or inability? All listed and unlisted reasons are fuelled by confirmation bias, cognitive in nature.

Prevalent all over and residing in all of us, confirmation bias is powerful enough to create and sustain disputes and misunderstandings. We tend to favourably reason for what we, believe in, are used to, support or hold sacred. Though there could be serious flaws in what we believe in, support or practice, we tend to be blind to its cons and deaf to reasons against, often knowingly. Confirmation bias lethally compromises our etiognosis-diagnosis-prognosis skills. Since society, as a matter of contemporary practice responds aggressively to opinions that do not conform to those held by the voice of the powerful, confirmation bias, the easy safe way ahead, thrives.

 

Beat The Bias

Success of the Wright brothers is attributed to their ability to endlessly argue, but constructively, about what each thought and believed in. This essentially snuffed out confirmation bias. Ruthlessly contested ideas gave wings to their dreams.

Ideation unless vigorously contested, tend to be short-sighted, flawed and hence hopelessly short-lived. Allurements or fear of repercussions keep things going till they can persist. Eventually they fall apart. Ideologies, and empires have fallen.

The best way for a solution to remain relevant for long is to remain linked to times. That necessitates changes as per diktats of changing inputs. Solutions are mere inanimate processes. The key lies with the man behind it!

 

Give It Up

It is human to be emotionally attached to ideas and decisions, though it may not be the best way forward. Normally we don’t take kindly to criticism of our ideas. It is often considered a personal affront. With career, livelihood or even existence at stake, most do not express reservations. Many use the opportunity to curry favours and harvest benefits by singing praises. Wisdom easily differentiates!

If one is willing to throw ideas to the wolves, the best would survive. The easiest way is to detach oneself from one’s own ideas. Willingness to accept existence of better view and perception helps everything but ego. It needs us to tune into actively listening without being hurt. It needs us to dissent without hurting. Craving for success and its ownership is better served if solutions emerge post contest.  

It can happen, only if we are willing to give up ownership of our ideas!

Points to Ponder

Why do societies continue with  discriminative practices although everyone speaks against it? 

Why do people preach but not practise?

Inability? Convenience to few  at the cost of others?


PS

1. Do please subscribe to the blog to be notified. 

2. Discussions on the subject are welcome. 

3. You may initiate discussions by posting your comment under the blog.

 

Wednesday 26 May 2021

COVID: MISSING SOMETHING AMONGST THE NUMBERS?

 

 All About Numbers

Ever since COVID broke ground, Nations, states within federal structures, local governing bodies and various organisations collect, collate and publish numbers relating to the pandemic. Covid performance is now about numbers; number infected, hospitalised, recovered, dead etc. These are available in the public domain. Each of these can be used the way one wants to. When performance is about numbers, it can also be contested. Here numbers in the public domain are considered, uncontested.

Data Base

The daily numbers reported are in absolute terms. However, to even out spikes, a moving seven-day average is considered. It provides better understanding of the trend. Linking confirmed cases to deaths as percentages gives the prevailing covid mortality. Details with respect to three states, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are given below was collated. ‘Death/Case’ has been calculated from data available. Increase in cases and deaths as percentage growth from the previous day has also been plotted for each state. 

 

 

Maharashtra

Karnataka

Kerala

Date

Cases

7 -Day Avg

Death

7 -Day Avg

Death to

Case Ratio

Cases

7 -Day Avg

Death

7 -Day Avg

Death to

Case Ratio

Cases

7 -Day Avg

Death

7 -Day Avg

Death to

Case Ratio

16-May

34,404

941

2.74%

36,209

427

1.18%

31,791

93

0.29%

17-May

32,594

909

2.79%

35,291

420

1.19%

30,439

96

0.32%

18-May

31,125

928

2.98%

33,925

449

1.32%

29,721

100

0.34%

19-May

29,880

1,009

3.38%

32,428

446

1.38%

29,228

107

0.37%

20-May

28,778

970

3.37%

31,635

461

1.46%

29,133

119

0.41%

21-May

29,138

969

3.33%

30,473

470

1.54%

31,066

124

0.40%

22-May

29,278

963

3.29%

30,506

469

1.54%

30,360

131

0.43%

Coronavirus statistics - Bing[1] 

 Linearity

Test positivity Rate (TPR), represents the ratio of those found infected against the numbers tested. Higher TPR means more infected people amongst those tested. Ideally, number of cases, TPR and number of deaths are linearly related. Conversely, as afflictions fall, TPR must fall and death must recede. Fortunately, TPR has been on the decrease for some time. It means that daily infections and therefore deaths should be coming down. But data suggests that even as TPR and daily confirmed cases were coming down ‘Death-to-Cases’ was behaving differently. 

 

Cases To Death Ratio

 DATE

INDIA

MAHARASHTRA

KARNATAKA

KERALA

28-Feb

0.71%

0.65%

1.24%

0.48%

05-Mar

0.58%

0.48%

0.73%

0.60%

10-Mar

0.53%

0.37%

0.71%

0.69%

15-Mar

0.50%

0.36%

0.37%

0.72%

20-Mar

0.45%

0.32%

0.48%

0.81%

25-Mar

0.45%

0.33%

0.35%

0.60%

30-Mar

0.51%

0.38%

0.47%

0.58%

04-Apr

0.52%

0.51%

0.43%

0.46%

09-Apr

0.51%

0.52%

0.47%

0.33%

14-Apr

0.50%

0.52%

0.43%

0.21%

19-Apr

0.59%

0.68%

0.52%

0.13%

24-Apr

0.73%

0.99%

0.56%

0.10%

29-Apr

0.89%

1.33%

0.58%

0.12%

04-May

0.94%

1.40%

0.60%

0.15%

09-May

1.07%

1.57%

1.06%

0.17%

14-May

1.26%

2.12%

1.14%

0.26%

19-May

1.59%

3.38%

1.38%

0.37%

Note: The second wave commenced in March, hence data from March

 

Data indicates that through March 2021, death to cases ratio decreased, stabilised in April and then increased. Though interstate differences are significant, the increasing pattern is similar.

Kerala stood out different. Through February to mid-March Kerala posted growing death rates but controlled it and brought it down by mid-April. Obviously, there was something at work. It had to be identified and addressed to control deaths.




 

Discounting Lag

A comparison of daily numbers and deaths show the difference. On 05th May, ‘All India’ number of daily cases hit the highest at 4,12,262 (39,1280, 7-day average). The deaths reported that day was 3,784 (3770, 7-day average). Considering the incubation period of 2 to 14 days, once contacted one can test positive within 14 days. The patient’s condition could deteriorate during this time or later. Therefore, a lag between daily confirmed cases and death is inevitable. This also could also range between 7 to 14 days. Thus, number of dead could continue rising for 7 to 14 days after the cases peak but should ideally fall thereafter in line with the decrease in cases. If cases peaked on 5th May, death should have peaked latest by 19th or 20th May and then descend.

The Mystery

Progress of cases and deaths, plotted as percentage growth from the previous measure mark, gives a clearer picture. The graph clearly debunks linearity between cases and deaths. Even as number of cases decreased more people were dying!  Another intriguing aspect is that, though growth of ‘death’ generally overtook growth of ‘cases’ during the period, end march - early April, there has been no uniformity in the difference. Each state shows different patterns, strongly suggesting regional influence. However, clearly the increase in death shows an upward trend compared to the downward trend of cases.

 

 
    




 

















Solving the Mystery

Is increasing death rate driven by shortages? Oxygen, hospital beds, medicines?

The second wave acceleration commenced in March. It peaked by end- April. Hospital beds and oxygen ran short. Many deaths could have been avoided but for such inadequacies. Soon facilities were augmented and situation declared eased. Since infrastructural inadequacies impact linearly, death should have increased when oxygen, beds and medicines were running short and eased when these were addressed. Moreover, with cases falling, load on infrastructure should have eased and deaths should have fallen even further. Vaccination, despite what it is, should also have had some impact. The graph gives a different picture.

Believing numbers available, all India growth in rate of death crossed growth in cases around 26 March. It fell back only to run away in the third week of April. Soon it started showing congruence to the drop in cases. This may correspond to the period when shortages were addressed. However, by second way of May, even as oxygen and bed shortages were addressed, gap in rates between the two started increasing. Clearly more people amongst the infected were dying compared to the previous periods even when medicines and oxygen were being made available. Why?









Deadly Second Wave?

Is the second wave virus deadlier?

The primary aim of the virus is replication, for which virus needs to spread. Spread depends on virulence. Scientists have confirmed enhanced virulence of the mutated strain. Though people die from covid, dead body is ‘dead end’ for the virus. After all, herd immunity is the ecological equilibrium between the virus and its host. No proof has emerged for enhanced lethality. With no scientific basis to prove, we cannot attribute increasing deaths to enhanced lethality. The second wave virus may not be deadlier than the first.

Comorbidity? It is said that those with underlying medical conditions are more likely to succumb to covid than others. Since comorbidity is common to both the waves, it cannot be causing such a dissonance in linearity of relations.

What else could be the reason?

Have we missed something about virulence? Are we doing something differently this time from what we did earlier - something impacting management or treatment protocol?

Plausible Argument?

During the first wave people who contracted the virus were isolated early and treated at medical facilities. This time around, people testing positive are advised to stay home till, they have real difficulties.  This has been done primarily to reduce the load on medical facilities. Now consider these: -

1. Almost everyone with some means is now in possession of a pulse oximeter and a covid treatment kit.

2. Most have managed oxygen concentrators or cylinders and if they haven’t, they at least have the promise of one.

3Almost everybody believes that there is no treatment for corona and treatment is required only for complications that develop from it.

4. The confusion about which medicines to be administered or not as well as the shifting stands on treatment protocols, publicly aired on National Television also seem to suggest elements of incoherence in how covid is managed.

5.    Under such circumstances people prefer staying home as long as they can.

6.   Most of them report to hospitals when they are critical.

7.Are the increasing deaths attributable to worsening complications that could have been avoided if they had accessed medical care earlier?

Is the policy shift, allowing people to stay home till conditions worsen, silently pushing the death rate up?

Kerala Model

Despite the surge and continuing influx of overseas Indians, Kerala continues to have very low mortality rate.

The public health infrastructure of Kerala is at par with that of Europe or America. Citizens have access to professional medical care close at hand.  Most primary health centres are manned by qualified medical and paramedical professionals. Despite rising infections and high incidence of hypertension and diabetes even in rural areas, death rate of the state remains the lowest. The increase in death rate and surge in numbers of cases are within the lag period of incubation and deterioration. The continued hike in cases in April especially in the last week, seems to push up death rate. The rate shows fall in line with cases. Could early access to professional medical care be the factor?

 Vigil - The Need

Early access to professional medical care may just be one reason. There could be one or more of it. But there is a need to identify it as soon as possible.

With the third wave imminent, there is no way it can be wished away. Law makers, administrators, medical professionals and citizens need to put their heads together and find that cause. It may help us save lives. Confusion is inherent to pandemics, but getting over it, the lifeline to millions, faster the better.

 


[1] All these data has been picked up from the public domain  (Coronavirus statistics - Bing ). It has been rechecked as on 25 may 1718 hrs. The data used is only for discussion purposes and is NOT from any government officials