MEA CULPA ELIZABETH !! MEA CULPA...

 The Promises!

An affordable ala carte of tests from a large array, possible on a tiny drop of blood drawn from a finger prick!

No more uncomfortable, scary and painful veinal blood draws!

The Story

An unbelievable biotech feat that can change diagnostics the way we now know. Defiantly disruptive an idea, marvellous the stated mission, formidable the connections, acclaimed investors and bountiful their investments, nothing could have stopped the young lady, who dreamt it all up, from endless possibilities, opportunities and an eternally enviable place in history. She was indeed crowned the youngest woman billionaire entrepreneur on the planet. 

The story of Elizabeth Anne Holmes, former American biotechnology entrepreneur is a lesson for materialists, spiritualists, philosophers, scientists and every one else living and aspiring.

In 2003, she founded the health technology company Real-Time Cures in Palo Alto, California to "democratize healthcare”. She later renamed the company Theranos, the name, a portmanteau of “therapy” and “diagnosis’. She also put together the most illustrious governing board in U.S. Corporate history, for Theranos, essentially securing powerful connections and a sense of immunity from prying eyes. By end 2014, her name appeared on 18 US patents and 66 foreign patents. In 2015, based on the $9 billion evaluation, Forbes named her world’s youngest self-made American female billionaire who “rebooted laboratory medicine”.

The dream run, however, was short-lived.

The very next year Forbes revised its estimate of Holmes’s net worth to zero. Fortune featured her in its article “The World’s 19 Most Disappointing Leaders”. Eventually, on November 18, 2022, Elizabeth Anne Holmes was convicted on multiple counts of fraud and sentenced to 135 months in prison by U.S. District Judge Edward Davila.

A phenomenal trajectory that traversed both through dizzying heights of fame and fortune, and then plunging into the abyss of dismal ignominy, a roller coaster ride from being hailed as the next wonder kid drop-out from Stanford to being dumped as a fraudster! The all black looks and turtle neck that reminded others of Apple’s Steve Jobs didn’t help her much.

She a Con Artist?

With many patents under her belt irrespective of how she bagged it and the audacity to commercialise one out of it, she cannot be called a con artist. She had a dream, developed a design out of it and got a patent too. She truly believed in it and went ahead though a learned professor cautioned her that the idea was unworkable.

But isn’t that the case with each and every disruptive technology that has finally found its way?

In her own words; "This is what happens when you work to change things; first they think you're crazy, then they fight you, and then all of a sudden you change the world.”

She saw it all; glory, money, honour and fame. She was out to change the world, driven by intense personal experiences. She believed, she was the change. She wasn’t a con act; not a bit.

A Brilliant Idea Sabotaged?

With unbelievable layers and levels of secrecy in everything she did or said, with each bit of information generated, moved within or moving in and out being monitored like state secrets,, employees sworn to secrecy and subject to severe and overwhelming legal repercussions the organisation had turned into an opaque labyrinth. In such an environment of mutual suspicion sabotage was a distant possibility. Looking at how things unfurled, it was evident that the focus of all secrecy and security was about guarding even a whiff of inabilities and failures getting out. There were serious design defects! They did everything to hide it.

There was nothing going right enough to be sabotaged!

How Did It All Go Wrong?

She had invested so much time, efforts and money into an idea she thought could revolutionise diagnostics. But it just did not work as expected.

But Isn’t that normal for almost all inventions?

With luminaries on the board of governors, too much of media glare, glitz, exposure and publicity, and early declaration of success ostensibly to attract more investments into a closely held private venture, the burden of failure could have been unbearable and unacceptable. Success had to be bagged and bagged at all costs, even if it was through dubious means. She seemed to believe that success was around the bend and it will come. So rather than retracting and re-examining the idea she continued to reinforce failure.

Each successive failure made the need to succeed faster more intense. Despite her claims of ignorance about what was happening on the lab floor, she seemed to have been party to resorting to dubious means to buy time till they succeed. She pushed herself and her company into a retrograde cycle. The harder she struggled in the quick sand, the more she got sucked in to it. The air of infallibility so meticulously crafted turned counter productive.

What Could She Have Done?

Rather than reinforcing failure and adopting deceit to buy time she could have easily gone public about the problem her design had encountered. A mere mea culpa would have in all likelihood won her the required trust and time to pursue her dream. After all, every idea that became a design and eventually a product did encounter problems and required time to mature. Unfortunately the young lady, gave herself the mantle of perfection and allowed herself to be immersed in the mantle of genius the media gave he. She even used the very same media to launch a counter attack to cover up. Failed counter attacks can have disastrous consequences. It sealed her fate and hastened the fall.

Lessons

Belief in oneself is good but allowing oneself to believe in flattry is nothing short of foolishness. Deliberately turning blind to one’s own flaws is an open invite to failure. It is normal for projects to take unexpected directions or encounter obstacles. To approach design and development arena with an air of infallibility or invincibility is recipe for disaster. Errors and setbacks are inherent to all developmental efforts.

When obstacles are encountered, it is important to pause, evaluate and then progress. When things don’t go as planned it is important to be honest and open about it. It helps reset, recalibrate and relaunch.

It's not for Elizabeth alone. It’s for all of us. It’s applicable to each venture we undertake in life. It holds true in relationships too. Sense of infallibility precedes every fall!

For Elizabeth the story isn’t over yet. The patent still belongs to her. If it can be dreamt about, it can also be created. After all, whoever first thought man could fly would have been ridiculed. That dream became reality. Elizabeth can still work on her design, prove the professor wrong and revolutionise diagnostics. After all, we all need that contraption.

It's not in falling but not in attempting to rise up and run each time one falls, failure is complete. 

Elizabeth, the essence is time. Ideas need gestation time. Elephantine ideas need elephantine gestation. Keep greed and greedy people as far away from you as possible. 

In every atom resides the element and every atom the element. Certainly every drop of blood must tell us our physiological story. It's for us to find ways to read it. You had the audacity to dream of doing it. Patiently persist, you will find a way. Edison will work.

Elizabeth Anne Holmes, I hope you do it. I hope to see you in the very same black redeeming your pride.

Woods are Lovely Dark and Deep: The Secret of The Woods

Life is intriguing, yet most go through it without casting a second glance. Many amongst us spend a lifetime content enough eking out an existence, dying many a daily death.  Rich or poor, few dare to look beyond livelihoods and wealth accumulation. When one dares to ask questions to oneself about oneself, the quest begins.  Quest  gives meaning to life and questions that arise, on their own slowly reach their answers.

A persistent question, the ‘why’ of people’s behaviour came up in a late evening discussion with two friends, a young couple both achievers, located in San Francisco. The cause and effect notion of life, means with which it gains currency and its short lived utility found home in that discussion.  Weeks later by sheer coincidence, another persistent one ‘purpose of life’ came up for discussion with, a spiritually evolved, material minimalists and unbelievably large hearted couple, our hosts in Tustin, California. It was in one of many such discussions about programming and reprogramming ourselves the ‘secret of the woods’ became clear to me. Let me share that with you.

Most of us are led by narratives fed to us right from our childhood. Slowly, over time as we grow, we absorb these as day-to-day requisites and internalise them as a program that we all become well accustomed to. In effect,  we voluntarily live a life dictated and programmed by others. These countless lines of internal coding that covers almost all areas of our life dictate how we think, perceive and even decide between right and wrong. In fact, it governs everything we do. We seldom dare to deviate.  

The ‘secret of the woods’, I learnt was like that. But something else was revealed that day.  It was not revealed to me during any  meditation session.  It was not passed on to me by any teacher. I just stumbled up on my own version of the secret  in one of these discussions.

A favourite of statesmen like Pt. JL Nehru and Nelson Mandela and very often used for recitation competition, the poem ‘Stopping by the woods on a snowy evening'  by Robert Frost, is a captivating read. The last of the four stanzas, is widely quoted by teachers and elders alike to drill in the need to set goals for life and focus on them as destinations, as we travel forward in life.

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep

But I have promises to keep,

And miles to go before I sleep,

And miles to go before I sleep.”

The wise use these four lines to egg us on to ignore the beautiful deep woods in front of us and get on with life’s goals. In this widely accepted taught and propagated explanation, a sense of immorality and guilt, in the act of watching snow fill up the woods that doesn’t belong to you seems to be inherent. Even the horse seems to sense something "queer" with the poet stopping near the woods on the darkest evening to see the beauty of nature. Such explanations make, mutually exclusive binary choices, the norm, compelling readers to denounce one in favour of the other. That is how we have been programmed.

Is that the only explanation? May be there could be others too.

Poets like other artists tend to be driven by the heart more and less by arithmetic equations. Best of poems come out from intense emotions of love,  won or lost, beauty or  passions.

Look at those lines bit more closely. 

Isn’t the poet portraying immense inner conflict between the urge to stay on watching the beautiful woods and the diktats of society asking him to set and pursue goals? Does the Poet say that he ditched the lovely woods for the ‘promises’ that lie miles away? He leaves us at the cross roads to decide! 

Somehow we are programmed to choose the 'miles ahead' dumping the spectacular show nature has put on for us. We also forget that the beauty being unravelled is fleeting.

While falling snow and the beautiful woods , according to many, are mere temptations that distract us from real goals that lay far ahead, isn't the poet telling us that it is such beauties, though fleeting, in life that make the journey beautiful and despite compulsions, one must stop by.

Sadly, most of us are wired such that we easily  immerse ourselves in pursuit of destinations of the journey, given in to compulsions of an uncertain future casting away the beauty of living in the present. Our actions are often investments for  future little realizing that the road ahead ends only at the pyre or in a casket. The most powerful, resourceful, richest and wisest have all had to shed their power, fortunes and intelligence behind as they were carried out on the final journey.

Life, is all about experiences rather than material accruals. Somehow we seem to hold the two mutually exclusive though they can comfortably coexist. We need things to live and comforts too. But dying to get that forgetting to live?

We are on an one way street with no chance to retrace our steps. Not one man has found a way. Every possible scriptures says so, yet believers and non believers alike have drowned themselves in futile pursuit dumping the beautiful present.

To me the secret has been unravelled.

Would you like to take a relook?

 

 

 

 

Is Descent Inevitable after Ascent – Strategy to Stay on Top for Long

Newport in Rhode Island is a beautiful place. Situated by the Atlantic Ocean it offers visitors with frames for perfect pictures. It also houses some stunning mansions.  I had never heard of Newport before, but was the recipient of the large heartedness of Issac Simon, my brother-in-law who not only suggested the trip but even offered to take us on the eighty-five  mile drive to the mansion town. The drive, one of the many such, he graciously hosted so far, was beautiful from the word go with the fall painting the entire route with colours, I had seen never before.

With tickets in hand, we actually walked into a piece of American history. Ahead of its times, each room stood out well appointed carefully planned and exquisitely executed. In fact, everything about the mansion was bathed in audacious opulence and grandeur, all funded by slices from the immense riches the individual had amassed over his lifetime. We spent almost three hours within, what was once, someone’s summer house, admiring each inch of space and every piece on display. To top it all, the Atlantic Ocean right outside the mansion premises gave it a touch of magic. I walked out of the mansion in awe of the owners and headed for the blue expanse of Atlantic ocean.

The wind was picking up and I started feeling cold even through the bright sun. As I gathered my jacket closer, and turned around to look at the grand mansion, a sudden thought occurred to me;  how are their descendants living now? Are they still rich and living like their ancestors ?

One of the first things I did, on my return, was to search for details. I was surprised to find that the wealth they had once amassed, barring few patches of comfort, had all but been either diluted or  squandered away. What a tragedy! What about other rich families of the yore?

I searched for other known rich families across the world. The story wasn’t much different. Almost all of them had their wealth either completely wiped out or they were just pale shadows of their glorious past. It  then occurred to me that it was not just rich families! Great empires, kingdoms and  organisations were no different!

Is descent then the inevitable next, after the ascent?

I recall my elders talking of the four-stage cycle of ‘rags, riches and back'. Depending on the diligence exercised by individuals in the family or those in control, the cycle may gather or lose momentum. However, the cycle, according to the elders, is inevitable. 

Starting from abject poverty, the poor (‘Daridran', in my native language Malayalam) spends his life in misery. His children having seen, experienced and driven by poverty dream of better life.  They, with fire in their bellies, strive with all their might to change their state of existence. They essentially live out their life in hard-work accumulating wealth slowly. They are mostly misers (‘Lubdhan’) and seldom spend anything on themselves.

Having seen what the parents have gone through and inheriting the seed capital and better footing, a lubdhan's  children continue to work hard and soon become rich (Dhanikan). Born into affluence and plenty, children of the dhanikan have no clue of the hard ways the family had come through and therefore have no qualms about splurging and squandering their inheritance. This is the generation of the prodigals (Dhoorthan). 

With floodgates open, wealth flows out of family vaults and soon they fall on hard times completing the cycle. Children of the Dhoorthan inherit empty vaults and debts and soon are divested of anything that is left over. They soon become Daridrans! The cycle is completed.

Despite this universal truth being known by everyone, the cycle continues to play out, day in  and day out across the world. Each stage, however,  could accommodate more than one generation depending on diligence applied.

The same principle applies to emperors, kings and family run institutions. We have learnt of ancient civilizations and their magnificent existence. What happened to them? Why did they vanish? Did this cycle-rule apply to them too?

A close look at our self, our family or even the organization that we work for could reveal the stage we are at in the cycle. It would then be natural to ask; can we  prevent the downward arm of the cycle from befalling upon us and our family?

To my mind, it all depends on how much of our hunger for growth we can pass on to our next generation and how much we have insulated them from realities of life. In the garb of making things easy for our progenies, we tend to insulate them from the rough and tough of life and end up making them unfit and inadequate to face challenges of life. We end up extinguishing the fire within their bellies rather than fuelling  it. Our misplaced love end up depriving them of opportunities to attempt, fail, learn and then relaunch themselves. In other words the current generation has a strong influence in what the next is up to.

Most of us, irrespective of where we are in the cycle, believe that we have come up the hard way. We tend to exaggerate our sufferings and discount what we got. Many believe that it is their divine duty to provide their progenies with whatever they were denied or couldn’t afford.  In the process they create the next generation that, might or might not, have an idea of the cost or price of their possessions but they certainly have no clue about its value. Even those in the splurge mode do find ways to lament their lack of avenues and resources.

It is for us to decide weather to accelerate the growth phase or let a freefall occur. But first let us check where we are? That calls for real introspection.

 

Cherry Picking in an Apple Orchard

English is a very interesting language. There are words with letters in it that don’t make themselves heard. They just add length and complexities but without them the word itself is misspelt. Then there are words, that individually meaning something, but collectively with other words say a lot different. They call it idioms.

To a large extent even life is like that; interesting from many perspectives. There are many people around us, easily visible but insignificant to our existence. Their presence adds to complexities to our lives yet they remain unavoidable. Without them around, we would not have become the individuals that we have become and in the journey ahead what we will be. Similarly there are people who  individually may behave in one manner and in groups they could surprisingly be different, good bad or ugly, just like idioms.

‘Cherry picking'  literally  and literarrily are different; so is ‘apple picking’. Cherry picking literally means picking cherries and literarrily; it means one’s act of choosing from amongst many available options. Apple picking, on the other hand literally means plucking (picking) apples from the tree and as one of the newly coined idioms, refers to theft of ‘Apple’ devices mostly by snatching.

Recently, I went apple picking, literally of course.

Apple picking is an annual ritual that many farms organise in the USA. They allow visitors to pick as many apples as they can and carry it home; naturally on payment. The amount payable is not calculated based on the number or weight of apples picked, but on the number of people in the group plucking apples and the bag they ‘have to' choose. More the number of people in the group, bigger the bag that has to be bought; and more apples that can be carried home.

People, come for apple picking tours, essentially not for getting apples cheaper than the market but to experience the walk through the apple orchard and plucking apples of their choice right from the trees with their very own hands. The bag is more, a means to carry memories home than apples. We too went for the experience.

At the farm, there were counters that sold tickets and bags. We stood in the queue and when our turn came, paid the amount, got our family bag and reached the orchard. There was a person who told us how apples should be picked and also showed us the different varieties of apples that could be plucked that day. I was more keen on practice and less inclined to be preached to! Without wasting any time, I wanted to be there  in the orchard, picking.

Once inside, I couldn’t believe my eyes.  Rows after rows and rows after rows of apple trees stood fully laden with apples ready to be picked.  Apples of various shades of red, bright golden yellow and lavish green; apples and apples, I had never seen so many different types of apples together. I stood overwhelmed by the sheer numbers.  

It's then I noticed that there were many apples lying on the floor, many of them with clear signs of having been bitten off. Since visitors are allowed to taste and eat as many as they can, I saw people picking tasting and dropping. Possibly one need not eat the whole apple to taste it! What a colossal waste? I said to myself.

Having paid a tidy sum at the counter, my mind focused on making the best out of my investment. Walking around the orchard and feasting with my eyes was the experience that I had come for, but with the bag in hand, the money having been paid, the aim somehow seemed to have silently meandered off from its original course. I became focused on filling my bag with the best possible apples in the world.

The weather was beautiful, bright and sunny. The cold wasn’t biting any more. I had two choices.  I could walk through the entire orchard once to decide on what I should pick or without wasting time, I  could start plucking from where I stood, proceed gradually picking one or two from each variety eventually filling my bag by the end of the walk. The very conscientious person, I often think I am, I decided to start picking from where I stood. I was determined to pick just about one or two from each variety, cover the entire garden and then if need be, get back to filling the bag. Fair deal or so I thought!

The story actually starts here at this point. It is here that apple picking turned cherry picking!

The first tree was very easy, just two apples picked, one to taste and eat. Every tree looked inviting and each apple tempting. But then with so many trees to choose from and each tree with so many apples to select from, it was cherry picking at its best or worst! With few varieties still unvisited, our bag became full. Unlike many who dumped, what was already picked,  here and there, only to resume plucking more,  we, conscious of wastage, decided to stop. There were a few who had stuffed their bags with apples but soon either apples spilled out rolling all over or their bags gave way. Either way, they couldn’t carry what they intended to.  Since walking around with a heavy bag of apples was the last thing we wanted to do, we left the orchard.

Wanting to know more about the tradition of apple picking, I came back home and looked up for details. As I read through various texts,  words of the person who told us how to go about apple picking became clearer, louder and more meaningful. “Redder the sweeter” and “farther from the trunk riper the fruit”, he had said. “Shake the tree while plucking and spoil the yield next year” he cautioned us. “Don’t hold the apple with the thumb and fingers and press the fruit to see if it’s ripe but cup it in the palm and feel if it’s firm. Give it a slight lift and gentle twist if it’s ripe it will come to you easy”, he told us the secret of picking. “Once in hand, don’t drop it in the bag but place it gently, one over the other so that it doesn’t get damaged” he had advised.

Reflecting on what I had done that day, I realised that it was profound lessons in life that, I had experienced. The experience of walking in an apple orchard was paid for, but the lessons for life came from reflections in solitude.

Life is actually like a walk in the apple orchard. There is enough apples for everyone to pick and the orchard is large enough for a leisurely stroll for all of us. Once the bag is full, we will have to leave the orchard. If we don’t, then what we had picked up as coveted soon becomes a burden. We have just one life and it is we, who decide which all varieties of apples we need to pick and fill our bags with.

In our exuberance of having found ourselves in the orchard and the greed to bag all of it or most of it at once, we forget two cardinal truths. First, the bag is just one and it has finite capacity to hold. Second, the orchard is vast and with greater pickings as we walk along.  Yet, what we often do is different. To maximize our pickings, we greedily push our hands deep into the tree and not only hurt ourselves but break branches and even unripe ones. Shaking the tree to get the fruit we want, we damage the tree for times to come and also drop many fruits to the floor rendering it unfit for consumption. To be sure that we are getting the right apple, we press it between our fingers injuring it permanently and then having broken it from the tree we drop it into the bag rather than carefully placing it only to realize later that the apple we gathered have been damaged by us. Rather than gratefully cupping what we get, we are mostly judgemental and having got it carelessly toss it away as yet another trophy bothering little about its utility later.  Wanting more out of everything, we try stuffing our bags, little realising that we could  end up losing.

The apples I picked that day is long gone but the lessons I learned, has gone deep within me. For what is left of my life, I shall just walk in the orchard of life, absorbing all that colour of daily life, the aroma of goodness, savour the taste of love and not greedily stuff myself for a later day.

May be, you too can take a look at your bag, decide to keep it away for a while and just take a stroll in the garden of life.

Falling in Love with a Fall in Boston - Beyond What The Eyes See

I had heard a lot about the Boston fall and the dramatic change in colours from green to hues of yellow and red. I timed my visit to Boston to see the faint footsteps of fall, experience it getting louder and more colourful as it sweeps the entire area awash in colours.

I am enjoying every bit of it.

 'Autumn' and 'Fall’ are used interchangeably to capture the same essence of time bridging summer and winter. Autumn wears an attire of formality whereas fall brings along a poetic and philosophical feel appropriate to the annual event.

In the northern hemisphere fall commences with the autumnal equinox, the day, sun crosses the celestial equator, the imaginary extension of Earth’s equator in space. It normally happens between 21st to 24th September. Fall ends with winter solstice. Also called ‘hibernal solstice’, winter solstice occurs when the poles reach its maximum tilt away from the Sun. Winter solstice, therefore has the shortest day and longest night of the year. Then on, days start creeping upon nights till summer solstice gets revenge with the longest day and shortest night. The cycle, like it ever was, continues. Naturally both hemispheres have separate fall, winter and summer solstice.

The fall is interesting as it signals change in seasons offering us a spectacular feast for the eyes, a foliage that continuously changes colours. All trees do not change colours. Only the deciduous trees take part in this spectacle. For the cursory eyes, it may just be a change in colours, but for nature it is a complex process and for the trees a survival mechanism. In fact, it is the signal that the tree is shutting down its kitchen, the leaves, because it is running short on its fuel, the sunlight. Chlorophyll that gives trees its green and does photosynthesis, the process of converting sunlight into energy, starts breaking down. As chlorophyll breaks down, it exposes the underlying yellow (xanthophylls), orange (carotenes) and red (anthocyanins) pigments within the leaf. The catalyst for the change are primarily temperature and moisture. Since there are countless permutations and combinations of these two variables, no two falls can be alike! As fall progresses, each leaf starts gradually taking new colours, simultaneously weakening at the stem. Then having put on a spectacular show takes a final bow and falls down. The fall is all about swan songs; swan song of each leaf that once started its life journey with the tree as hope and goes on to contribute its might to the tree irrespective of the size of the tree .

The science behind what we see is important to understand why and how it happens. My interests, however in the fall was less for scientific reasons and more for what lessons it can give me.

Accept it or not we are part of nature and are inseparably linked to everything around us. There is so much beyond what eyes can see. Look close; Fall is a great lesson for all of us.

We all have our seasons of springs, summers, autumns and winters. For some of us life could be enviably long springs and summers. Life could be a dream run with neither autumns nor winters. But for many of us life could be very different. 

Barely noticeable springs and inconsequential summers that seem to finish even before it started could be condemned to obscure oblivion by immer challenging falls leading to extremely severe winters that linger till eternity. For reasons known or unknown life could just turn nasty.

 Like it or not; life’s like that.

We all respond to crises differently. Some like the evergreen trees may show no sign of approaching winter. They may easily weather challenging winters in life or even wither without warnings. But most of us show signs like the deciduous. When tough times come calling, signs show up in many ways, however hard we may try.  As life's winter gets closer and harsher, many, who we think will stand by us, fade away into unfriendly shadows or outright give up on us pretending they haven’t seen us in their life time. Worst are those who will confront us with often heard unjustifiable “I told you".

We could lose our greens, turn yellow in loneliness and go red in sorrows and losses. It's then that we should call to play our inner strengths

If we are rooted well in our belief of a better tomorrow, even while we face losses, we can let go of our leaves with dignity and conserve to weather the storm ahead. It’s autumns in life that help us know our true friends and strength.

Every winter however long and severe it may be, will have to end in spring.  Reassuring sunlight will come and with it new opportunities and hope. If the roots are intact, be assured, life will send shoots out, buds will emerge and the tree shall be full of greens once again.

As you enjoy the colours of fall, remember it’s the swan song for leaves but not for the tree. For the tree spring is about to come. Concentrate on sending the roots even further down.

Of Boundaries, Barriers and the Forbidden Peach

COVID, lockdowns and the consequent uncertainty ensured that the journey I planned happened two years late. On the 15th September, finally I managed to fly out to fulfil the last item on the bucket list written way back in 1999. It’s also time to draw up on a fresh one soon.

Jet lag and the associated fatigue is no match to time zone induced insomnia. Body and mind gets into an invisible conflict where there are no winners. However hard I tried, my body clock just wouldn’t align itself to the new geographical time zone. I was left with no other option but wait for the daylight to break.

Patience a virtue, for most is nothing but helplessness. Armed with the newly acquired virtue, I decided to walk out to explore the neighbourhood.

Hardly had I commenced my walk, something strange caught my attention. There were many beautiful houses in the area, not far from each other. However, the conspicuous absence of boundary walls and fencing between them baffled me. The landscape was distinctively different from what I had experienced all my life. Properties without boundaries?

Native to a community that prides itself in making houses and enclosing it within boundary walls and fencing, the sight was nothing short of a cultural shock. The entire colony barring just one house, had neither fencing nor boundary walls separating one property from the other. On enquiring about the ‘ odd man out' I learned that the owner had raised the fencing to ensure that his pet and small children don’t trespass into other’s property.

 Considered a highly competitive and capitalist society where everyone is believed to be strongly individualistic and known to zealously guard their privacy, every property should have been well-fenced off from each other. This colony was different. May be others won’t be like this; I thought.

A drive around the area was good enough for realisation to sink in that across the landscape the story was same. There were no boundary walls or fencing that separated one property from the other.

Walking around the house that I was staying I noticed two pear plants laden with fruits. Some had fallen to the ground. My first question to my host was; can I pluck one? His answer was that we could not because that was in the neighbour’s property. Small things but great lesson!

Clearly everyone around knew their boundaries and never crossed the barrier they had imposed on themselves to infringe upon somebody else’s property. Truly impressive.

 Later in the day I took a drive out to the local grocery store . I was impressed with the manner in which common people conducted themselves on the road driving their cars. At every crossing, traffic light or not, without fail people actually stopped their cars just because a ‘Stop’ sign was painted on the road! They looked for other traffic and gave way to the person with the right of way. At many places I saw them being extra polite giving way to someone they thought deserved priority. How could I be not impressed?

On the few occasions I went for a walk, I was greeted by individuals, total strangers, whom I crossed. That too was a novel experience to someone who crossed many in such walks back home. Most refused to return a smile or acknowledge my presence. It was not that everybody here was polished civilized and good. But those who didn’t smile or wish were mostly exceptions rather than norm.

The boundaries between right and wrong seemed to be distinctly clear and deeply ingrained in almost everybody. Societies where distinctions between right and wrong, privileges and obligations, rights and duties, entitlements and expectations are internalized and practiced, there maybe no need to erect boundary walls or create unsurmountable barriers between neighbours, people and citizens. In such societies, people themselves set barriers for themselves and do not cross it.

They don’t need to blow their trumpet about how great they are. It just shows.

I have a lot to learn. I have more to internalise. May be I can start doing it myself. I am eager to get home. My new bucket list, however small it would be, considering the residual existence, would be significantly be influenced by what I learned here. It may or may not make any significant dent but my earnestness will not be insignificant.

Harvesting Cognitive Dissonance

 Go Along 

Comical acts online or on TV, invariably comes along with an abundant dose of ‘canned laughter [1]’. We might miss the joke but not the laughter. Sooner than later, we too tend to laugh along; even when we don't quite get the joke. Our compulsion to go along is more pronounced when there are people around!  

WhatsApp group discussions play it out best. Anyone could have initiated it but inevitably, it gravitates to align with the opinion of an individual or a group of individuals. Initially there could be many widely differing views; strong, loud and clear. As discussions progress, differing voices either fall in line, or just fade into silence. Views that differ from the majoritarian are gradually given up, willfully or under pressure. It is not always necessary for the majoritarian opinion to be correct legal or valid, yet everyone goes along! Don't believe it ?

Revisit previous discussions on your mobile; it could provide undeniable proof! You can easily identify the dominant ones, the dormant mutes and the browbeaten. Eventually everyone tends to go along; to be in the group.  

Two seemingly isolated events but connected by a profound human compulsion called cognitive dissonance; the compelling desire to be with the dominant majority! 

 

Do We Always Go Along  

When our thoughts run contrary to the one predominantly held there is a sense of discomfort within us and we are driven to address it. The easiest way is to align oneself with the majority in view. Individuals to start with, homes, society and even Nation States are not exempted from this behavioral aspect. The degree and intensity of the dissonance experienced differs from person to person. More rooted one is to one’s belief, higher is the intensity of discomfort. If the dissonance has existential risk attached, likelihood of ‘going along’ is stronger.  After all North Koreans adore their leader!  

What happens when there is no existential threat? 

 

Conscience versus Pragmatism 

Mob lynching has become a common occurrence in many places. Individually nobody likes to kill or be killed. But seldom do we find anyone from within trying to prevent the mob from lynching the hapless. At least momentarily conscience of each individual in the mob goes dead.  

Many a time, people tend to go along even when they know, what they're going along with, may not be right. The discord within one’s conscience is often drowned in rudimentary survival need of being part of a group; the predominant human trait that helped us survive the wild, create societies and nation states and even wage wars against one another! Deeply imprinted into our genes, as an acquired  trait and perfected in the course of one's life, giving in to the majoritarian view guarantee us our place in the group and provides a sense of protection irrespective of what we hold as right or wrong. After all; it is more important to be alive to fight another day for another cause that may be more important to us: though that day may never come! In the choice between living by one’s conscience and being alive, spine gives way to survival instincts.   

The debate necessarily need not be on survival issues. Yet; it is it easier to be part of a group even though one knows that the group’s view or decision is wrong. It is our innate quality that draws us closer to the group even against the call of our conscience, justifying the unjustifiable. Those who stand firm by their conscience are either expelled from the group or forced to get out. They either perish in solitude or emerge separately creating groups that hold another set of views seemingly driven by their conscience. This is the path seldom trodden.  

Understanding Majority

Majority may not necessarily be defined in numerical sense always. One strong man can create a majority being the nucleus. Others, join for selfish reasons and the bulk, is made up of people often referred to as silent majority. They are there for fear of being seen holding contrary views. They easily shift to another power center when the wind blows that way. 

Driven by incompetence to voice, impotence to stand up and be heard, they are easily afflicted by cognitive dissonance. Organisations, associations and such bodies are infested with such people; certainly selfish and often scheming.   

Can Cognitive dissonance be productively channeled? 

 

The Mantra for Corporates

Getting teams to deliver and meet deadlines is one aspect that every organization wants. While diversity in skills, domain expertise and opinions add to the quality of options generated, success depends on convergence of thoughts post decision on the way forward and unity in action thereafter. Cognitive dissonance can be ‘managed’ effectively without impinging on individual’s esteem and eroding his skill set and willingness to deploy it. If such a conducive climate is created it can help the organisation reap rich.  

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[1] Canned laughter or laugh track is the pre-recorded laughter inserted into a audio or video programme. It is essentially a cue for those watching or listening to laugh.

DECIDING HOW TODAY WILL BE VIEWED IN HISTORY

 

Background   

Defence ministers, do address the press. But the one on 14th of June 2022 will remain indelibly etched in history of modern India. The RM, flanked by his service chiefs unveiled the new recruitment policy for ‘Personnel Below Officer Rank’ (PBOR) of the Indian defence forces. They named it ‘Agnipath’ (the path of fire) and called those to be recruited under this scheme ‘Agni Veer’ (fiery warriors). It is claimed to be the boldest and most transformative intervention the Indian defence forces has ever had in its lifetime. 

Officially, it is claimed that the scheme would achieve “National Integration providing equal opportunity” and nation building nation “through empowered disciplined youth with military ethos in civil society”. For the Army it is supposed to “improve battle preparedness through transformative evolution”, select the best “with rigorous and transparent selection process”, achieve “youthful profile through optimal balance of youth and experience”, and help Army become tech savvy through “induction (of individuals) from technical institutes”. Quantitatively put, lower the age profile of the Indian army. 

There are six specific promised takeaways for individuals. Barely put, the scheme envisages recruiting 46,000 youth between the years 17 1/2 to 21 every year to the defence forces for a period of 4 years on a “customised” monthly compensation of Rs 30,000 in the first year, Rs 33,000 in the second, Rs 36,500 in the third and Rs 40,000 in the fourth year. 30% of it will be retained by government to be returned to the individual at the end of the four year term with equal contribution from it along with interests, totaling to 10.04 Lakhs (excluding interests) as Seva Nidhi package. On completion of the term, 25% Agni Veers would be retained based on merit and others released, into a eagerly waiting civic society ready to absorb them and give them a great start to a second innings in life.

Rosy in deed. 

A very attractive package especially considering the current unemployment rate. The youth should have lapped it up. However, as soon as the scheme was unveiled, all hell broke loose. Regardless of opinions, the Government is adamant in seeing Agnipath through the ‘Agni Pareeksha’ (Trial by Fire).  

Ripples  

The political and social environment of the country has not remained same ever since. Opposition called it murder of democracy because the government did not consult them on such a far reaching reform. With a brutal majority in executive, niceties were not required. When opposition representatives became loud on prime time discussions, they were met with even louder shriller government supporters, drowning reasons in din. 

Many veterans were aghast because, they believed that Agnipath sounds the death knell for Indian army, destroying the ethos and culture evolved over times and many an adversity. Most of them went public, in print, visual and social media against the scheme. Few applauded the scheme and called it yet another masterstroke and claimed it to be the timeliest intervention capable of creating tech-savvy, efficient lean mean defense forces, capable of handling future military challenges. Never has the veteran community been so vociferous against a government scheme that affected the forces yet felt so inconsequential. Never has the veteran community been so divided professionally and politically. 

No one seemed to give any credence or attention to either opposition parties or veterans who disagreed. 

But it was different when the youth rose in opposition. The government clearly had not anticipated the scale and intensity of nationwide agitation youth would launch. They decided to take matters into their hands. Their ire, was targeted against public property, laying it waste, vandalized destroyed or burnt.  Agnipath protests spread and raged across states, literally setting streets on fire.  

No amount of injustice real or perceived can justify or condone violence of any sort. For a country that won its independence through nonviolence or ahimsa, this was a stark departure from the most powerful weapon of Indianness. The violence and manner of protest adopted need to be condemned in the strongest possible manner. Action deemed appropriate must be taken against the perpetrators of violence. Some state Governments had earlier shown that it is capable of instant retribution but that resolve seemed to be missing in handling Agnipath protests.   

The government immediately announced a slew of measures to allay fears of the youth and make it more attractive, despite its claim of deep research over all the aspects of the scheme. It included one-time age relaxation, higher insurance cover and reservations in other government jobs. 

The official attempting to be as convincing as a convinced can be, clarified that these measures were not a consequence of the violent protests but we're already in the pipeline. He also categorically stated that the scheme will not be rolled-back. Soon, industrialists, industries and state governments joined the bandwagon with post contract job offers.    

Contest or Comply  

Change is the only constant in life. But change, especially those with long term ramifications, must not be undertaken just for the sake of change. Contesting change merely for the sake of opposing or just because it questions status quo isn't productive. Unquestioningly complying with anything pushed down from top, in the name of change, also does not augur well for progressive civic societies. Change must be for valid reasons. With no options other than complying, one has to comply and bear the consequence, good bad or ugly. 

Yet, the proposed scheme can certainly be dissected objectively to be understood from differing perspectives, even if it may not end up of being any use.   

Profile Correction  

One of the major takeaways from the scheme, it is claimed, is that it will, in few years, lower the age profile of the army from the existing average above 30. Prima facie it looks true too. 

But is it?  If yes; how? If No; why? 

To statistically reduce age profile of a sample under study, there is only one sure way. Increase the numbers in lower age group and decrease the numbers in higher age group. Isn’t that what Agnipath is doing?  No.

It quantitatively reduces induction, from 60,000 to 46,000 every year.  Moreover, the rate of attrition at the lower age group is designed to be 75% as against 5% normal attrition at at the top. Thus, as the ‘oldies’ wither away slower in comparison to the Agni veers, the age profile will NOT reduce dramatically as picturised. In absolute terms, keeping the current figures as the constituents, it will be only in 2042, twenty years from now, that Agni veers constitute over 50% of the force.  

 

{Caveat - The figures 46,000 as annual intake of Agni veers as well as the attrition rate of 5% considered for old school combatants are as on date. when these figures change, much like the EMI and term of loans change with change in interest rates, the figures for manpower will change too.}

By that time, at the rate now decided, 9, 66,000 youth would have joined the scheme from which 5, 86,500 would have been asked to leave, a whopping attrition of 60.71% at the bottom. The existing regular combatants at 5% attrition would have shrunk from 10,65,150 to 3,81,841 a reduction of 6,83,309 combatants putting it at 64.2%. By that time the youngest Agni veer joining the forces now, if he or she decides to stay, would be 37.5 years. 

Are we merely creating a turbulent vortex at the bottom that offers no credible advantage?  Have planners missed the real math? 

NO. The math is different. In long term perspective, age profile will slowly reduce due to the attrition at the top through releases but mostly through reduced induction of regular combatants and the high turnover of Agni veers. Essentially unnoticed, there is a significant overall reduction of force strength.

Yes; Agnipath essentially extinguishes the existing vacancy and restricts future intake to 46,000 a year. Dramatic short term take-away and infinitesimal erosion over long term.  But, what is wrong in reducing army strength?  

Doctrinal Diktats  

Many influencers feel that Indian army is too big, unwieldy and needs to be trimmed. How this opinion has taken roots in the society and on whose behest is unknown. This narrative has garnered traction enough to be considered an unquestionable imperative. If nothing else, Agnipath certainly addresses this concern. But there is a flipside and a grave one too!  

Size of a country’s defense forces and how it should be equipped is dictated by threats it perceives and how it plans to deal with it. Most countries document it in their national security doctrine. There is no information in the public domain to suggest that India has such a doctrine. In the absence of such a document-stipulated force level, numbers could remain subjective and ambiguous. Considering our friendly neighbourhood what should be India's force levels?   

Numbers  

According to information available, India has an authorized army strength of over 12 lakhs. The attrition rate of the Indian army under normal circumstances is about 5% and therefore the annual recruitment intake is about 60,000 balancing attritions with accretions. However, depending on actuals, figures get corrected. Every year depending on the adjusted requirement, vacancies are allotted to states depending on its Male Recruitable Population (MRP). With induction of female PBOR appropriate modifications would have been done.    

The current sanctioned strength of Indian Army is believed to be 12, 23,380. How we arrived at this figure, is not available in the public domain. Certainly, we can presume that it is based on the deployment requirements of Northern, Eastern and Western borders as also for counter- insurgency. NOT one man can be added without approval of the government and government approvals irrespective of who helmed it, was never easy. 

In 2019, India had only 11, 85,150 PBOR. Recruitments did not happen during the two COVID years, accumulating a deficiency of approximately 1, 20,000. Taking all that into account, the strength of PBOR in Indian army now is only about 10, 65,150, already deficient by 1, 58,230.   

It has been announced that, henceforth all recruitments to Defence Forces will be only through Agnipath. This will further increase the deficiency every year by 14,000. Yes; every year! So in ten years (by 2032), even if nobody retires from army, the strength will automatically deplete by 1, 40,000 more bringing down the strength to 8, 71,893. 

Considering inherent attritions even at 5% to the existing cadre, numerical strength of Army will fall to 8,70,357 by 2032 and to 7,42,249 in 2042, out of which 3,62,749 could be 'old school' combatants and 3,79,500 would be the Agni Veer category. The senior most amongst them would have 16 years’ service, barring the four year contract period. Stretching it theoretically a bit more, the last of the old school combatants would have left Army in 2062 having attained the age of 60 and four years later the Army would reach the theoretical maximum strength of 6, 55,500! 

Given the geographical diversity of India and the military challenges it faces, in addition to the widespread deployment now obtaining, the questions that we should be asking ourselves are: -  

What should be the strength of the defence forces and how should it be equipped to be a credible deterrent? 

Have we drawn up a national security doctrine?  

Are we visualizing significant reduction in external threats? 

Have we finalised an approach that reduces military manpower from the exiting 12 lakhs to about six lakhs and yet ensure national security?   

Diplomacy is a great mode of power projection. We have very articulate  effective and highly respected diplomats to represent us abroad. However suave, articulate and efficient be diplomats, their bargaining strength depends on the ability of the country's military, back home, to project and deliver decisions when and where required.   

What does this year on year reduction mean to us?

Fiscal Savings?? 

Penny-wise  

One of the reasons believed to have fuelled this master stroke, is that bulk of the defense allocation is consumed as pay, allowances and pensions leaving pittance for modernization.   

It is said, that a lie repeated a hundred times ends up being the truth. This seems to be the case here too. A large chunk of the allocations for pay and pensions actually goes to civilians drawing from the defense estimate. The fact remains that the lesser non-uniformed chunk consumes more of the pay and pension chunk.  

That apart, there is a cost that the country must incur for its security. Cost cutting is important. Even If the economy is ailing, should sacrificing sovereignty be the first choice?    

Tech Savvy Army   

One of the declared aims of Agnipath is to make Indian army tech savvy by ‘harnessing benefits of skill India by induction from technical institutes’. If this is translated to recruitment QR, only those who have got some ‘Skill-India’ certification and are piped through a recognised ‘technical Institute’ can find their way in! If implemented, it could exclude millions of otherwise eligible youths from being enrolled. Certainly, the slogan couldn’t be meaning what it says!  

Just being acquainted with technology in a ‘Skill-India programme’ outside the military domain doesn't make a person fit enough to handle military technology. Competency to handle militarized technology and acquire mastery over it to achieve combat aims is a long way of, far beyond the glitz and glamour of catchy slogans, unless we equate video games to military actions. What is important is to induct weapon systems that use the latest military technologies, the fastest possible. Yes; it costs. Survival demands investments.  

Once individuals are inducted into the forces, it has inherent competencies to impart the required training so as to make combatants competent enough to achieve operational aims.  

Agnipath essentially doesn’t deliver on this aim too. 

Future of the Unselected  

Agnipath essentially sowed uncertainty amongst the youth. Youth in lakhs had undergone various tests and were waiting to be called for the written examination for recruitment. With one stroke of a pen, all their efforts over the last few years were wiped out. Anger was the response. Reasons that triggered spontaneous unrests across the country needs to be understood.  

A job with the defense forces offers great amount of security. Pride and dignity the uniform provides and the romanticism associated with it apart, job security it provides is what attracts the not-so studious and academically bright youngsters mostly from villages flocking to join the armed forces. Take that away, a job in uniform loses all its attractiveness. Agnipath precisely did that.  

A lot has been said about the financial package the scheme offers. People seemed to have read through the fine print. People also realised that the ‘huge amount’ of Rs 11.71 Lakhs, promised as severance package, is half their own contribution and its interest, much like a contributory scheme.   

Promises! 

A number of guarantees of job offers suddenly came from all over. 

People seem to attach little credibility to promises of lateral induction into other police organizations and reservation in jobs in the central and state governments. There is a specific chapter titled “Lateral Movement of defence Force personnel” in the recommendations of the 6th Pay Commission. How much of these have fructified is a question those making guarantees now must ask. The number of vacancies for ex-servicemen lying unfilled across the country and in many states could jolt conscience if there is any.

 

The last nail on the coffin of credibility was driven when the highest court while hearing the case on OROP said that “A minister's statement given during a budget speech is not enforceable”. If that is the legal position on statements made by the government on the floor of the house, what credibility can one assign to open air proclamations?  

May be, a concerted drive can be undertaken even now to restore what was lost.

Emotional Industrialists

Industrialists with large followers on social media took to emotional posts and tweets promising jobs. Some industries also suddenly sprung up promising jobs to Agni Veers after four years. They may do good to themselves and their conscience if they review what they have done over the last decade or more to alleviate unemployment amongst young veterans coming out after 15-20 years of color service. It isn’t late still to make amends. 

Gullible people may appear; gullible they may not be.  

For & Against  

Many reasons have been put forth in support and against the proposed scheme. Proponents of the scheme have given examples of conscription across the world as against the form of recruitment in the country. Flaws in that argument have been in public domain. Some veterans have highlighted the serious damage it could inflict on operational efficiency, tactical cohesion and the much-revered regimentation. For every point in support of the scheme there are equally compelling reasons against it. Some critics have gone to the extent of comparing customs and traditions of Indian Army with remnants of British Raj and the insistence to hold on to them as colonial hangover. Contesting such arguments gives ignorance a place on the high table.   

Some veterans have gone to the extent to saying that the government has promulgated the scheme and there is no going back and therefore it must be tried out. Under the given circumstance, is there another option? 

Yes; we may save a lot of money in pay and allowances in the next five years or even a decade. But if it weakens the very sovereignty of the country would that be acceptable?  That is for those in power to ask. That is for each citizens to contemplate. 

Forward 

Even well thought-out initiatives have bitten dust. Certainly most ill-conceived ones have played havoc and wreaked terrible consequence. History hosts both differently. These are times when everyone everywhere is re-examining and rewriting history to suit contemporary socio-political needs. Those who scripted events then, we now know as history, are not around to explain what actually happened, why and how. 

Agnipath is certainly a significant event in the history of Indian Military. 

How it will be perceived when it becomes history is not for us to decide. Yes; we can now decide what comes out of it in the near future.

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