CORONA TIMES AND INVADING CORPORATES

Silent Take-over?

Ever since 2020 dawned, world has been compulsively riveted to ‘covidian’ statistics - the infected, recovered and dead. Incidents of heroism, sacrifice and stupidity add realism and uncertainty to the emerging survival story. In its attempt to contain the pandemic through social distancing, the world locked itself down. To survive with minimal damages, organisations, that could remotely pursue business, took the ‘Work-From-Home’ (WFH) route, effectively taking over homes.  WFH keeps hopes alive but could soon be the new norm.

Irresistible Goldmine

Creating office Space at Home  

Irritable domestic disruptions notwithstanding, internet generally ensured seamless connectivity helping entities overcome restricted work-related movement, imposed by lock-down. Though organisations, especially production places mandating physical presence, reported loss of business, many where work could progress without such presence reported higher productivity. For many, especially IT related, it was ‘almost’ business-as-usual even with skeletal staffing. In addition to the unexpected savings in real estate and logistics costs, ‘lock-down’ provided, it also seems to have helped companies discover an irresistible goldmine - 24x7 willing WFH employees with their own real estate at no extra costs. This could trigger a ‘post-lockdown’ review of HR assets, pruning of rolls and redeployment of residual resources. Markets can also expect new paradigms in talent acquisitions and retention.

Spin-off and Trade-off

If crude oil price  is an indicator, world economy is in a tail spin and businesses will be devastated. In the ensuing bloodbath, companies will resort to drastic measures to stay afloat. Unprecedented unemployment would be the first manifestation. Sensing looming pink-slips, employees have become more productive during WFH, than ever before. If 24X7 captive workers and real estate savings are the beneficial spin-offs for organisations, employees could find themselves ending up in an unhealthy trade-off, surrendering personal life for job security. Fixed and flexi-timings could soon become ancient practices, as employees could find themselves tied to ‘any time’ schedules. Secure high-speed network and domestic workstation could soon become mandatory requirement for being hired. Once hired, bosses, colleagues and subordinates can virtually walk into the privacy of each other’s homes. Corporate invasion of private space would be complete. 

Sub-optimal Output 

Organisational activities are possible 24 X7. Application of individual’s physical and mental abilities without break, however sincere it may be, yields sub-optimal results. Shift systems and time limits were introduced to overcome this efficiency drop. Somehow, higher management, assuming indispensability, seems to have excluded itself from such consideration. Middle level follows suit and lower rungs relentlessly replicate rituals to remain relevant. 

Considering oneself superhuman to command astronomical compensations and accelerated career progression is acceptable. But everyone around is unfortunately bound by laws that define mortals. Fatigue is undeniably human and law of diminishing returns universally applicable. While ensuing uncertainty may keep employees endlessly logged in and force them to attend calls, apparently pleased, it will be naive to think that charades could be productive in the long run.

Organisations resorting to such practices, by design or inadvertently, is exploitative and not worth working for. Worthy assets would flee sooner or later for better pastures.

Work Space

“Work is worship”, the often-quoted proverb, lends sanctity to workplaces. Interpersonal work relationships are best developed at the workplace, uniform and insulated from home conditions. Differentials in work conditions, if any, are motivators. Time together, as a team helps develop bonding and unity of purpose, indispensable elements in evolving productive organisational culture. Despite reckonable short-term savings, WFH essentially erodes workplace dynamics and in the long run be injurious to the organisation.

Home – Nursery for Value Systems

Home is where employees recuperate between work shifts. It is where employee goes to return recharged for productivity. That is why great organisations go to great lengths to make family lives of their employees meaningful.

Homes, like workplaces, too have distinctive and sanctified identity. Irrespective of the locality, size and comfort levels, home is where values systems are sown. It is where customs, traditions and culture are nurtured. Tinkering with ‘home-atmosphere’ by inducing office into the four walls of the house has serious implications with unbearable future costs for the society. Such infringements can alter the way, children, the future generation, is raised. Adverse impact of parental absence from children is well documented. Bringing offices home, may physically place parents at home longer but effectively and perpetually steal parents from children.

Costs of Infringement

Managements are not legally responsible for creating well-balanced, just and productive society. But they certainly have an important role. Compensation to the employee is only a peripheral act of society building. Organisations may do well to remind itself that the very same children whose development they consciously impair today would either be their potential employees or clients. Companies must understand that businesses thrive most in just and happy societies.

Defining Paradigms

If businesses plan to continue with WFH, then there is a need to define parameters of the proposed paradigm, clearly enunciating socially acceptable terms of engagement. Individuals may be willing to compromise long-term societal needs out of sheer greedy ignorance, but organisations can ill afford to remain oblivious to societal needs.

Intention makes the difference.

POST COVIDIAN KERALA : ADDRESS CRUMBLE ZONES FOR A BETTER TOMORROW

Better Than The Best

God's Own Country

Kerala’s fight against COVID-19 has been remarkable. The efficiency with which the state managed the pandemic is trending on social media.In the ‘covidian’ fight, Kerala has proved to be better than the best. Miles ahead in many social indices, other Indian states will take eons to catch up with Kerala.

Crumble Zones

Amidst euphoria of ‘success’ against COVID, some disturbing headlines also appeared. These were about Karnataka sealing its borders, Tamil Nadu controlling flow of goods, dumping of 80,000 litres of milk, protest by migrant workers, ‘nokku kooli’ (gawking charges) problems, impending return of jobless expatriates, loss of revenue from liquor sales, death of patients denied medical care and an estimated loss of 80% GSDP, each a pointer to socio-economic crumble zones integral to the state.

Fragile and heavily dependent food security, inadequate industrial production, industry-unfriendly environment, ever looming return of expatriates, native unemployment amidst plentiful opportunities, alcoholism and alcohol dependent exchequer, ironic inadequacies of an efficient public health system and high per capita debt burden are visible crumble zones of the state. Unlike crumble zones in a car which absorb impact shocks and save occupants, socio-economic crumble zones can on impact wreak havoc.

Vulnerable Existence

Hardly any agricultural or industrial production to talk of, the rain-washed, ‘God’s own country’ is a consumer state dependent on the rest of the country for survival. Kerala neither produces enough for its own consumption nor provides environment conducive to industrial production. Kerala's economy is driven primarily by expatriate remittances. Alcohol and lottery earnings do help.

Tiller-Abandoned Land

While land reforms[1] transferred ‘land to the tillers’, it sounded death-knell to profitable agriculture. Micro holdings of cultivable land and dearth of native labour turned land fallow. Native dietary items like jackfruit and tubers like tapioca, yam, once abundant, are hardly cultivated. Kerala is dependent on others to fill its stomachs. Cash crops like rubber, pepper, coffee and cardamom are on laboured breath. Coir industry, once Malayalee monopoly and livelihood for thousands, is also almost dead. Incidentally, the state derives its name from ‘Kera’ or coconut. Cashew industry, once another monopoly, is on ventilator.

Hara-kiri, Malayalee Style

Unreasonable demands, unrelentingly bargained, along with ‘Nokku-kooli’ precipitated conditions unfavourable to industrial and agricultural investment. Labour disputes, with political patronage irrespective of ideologies, ‘locked-out’ many production facilities that eventually closed shop. Kerala became land of ‘bandhs’ and ‘hartals’. While Malayalees in Kerala ‘enjoyed’ committing economic hara-kiri, Non-resident Malayalees, especially expatriates toiled, many in inhuman conditions, to feed needs and greed back home.

Outward Migration

Education and literacy are not synonyms and don’t necessarily make people employable or create jobs. In Kerala, literacy created an environment where natives became reluctant to take up manual labour. Literates discarded traditional occupations and the few who did, became unaffordable and overbearing. Armed with useless degrees, Malayalees couldn’t find enough blue or white-collar jobs of their choice, at home. Local opportunities, in plenty, went unsubscribed.

Malayalees, aware of opportunities elsewhere and managed foothold, migrated, first a trickle, then a torrent. Lured by petro-dollars, they swarm the middle east, mostly doing the very work they shunned doing at home. Doctors, engineers, nurses, paramedics, technicians, anyone and everyone followed. By conservative estimates more than 25 lakh Malayalees live abroad, more than 18 lakhs in middle east alone. Wherever possible they become citizens.

Kerala finds itself in a very a peculiar situation. Plenty of able-bodied natives are unemployed and live off others while forty lakh migrants find work.

Dwindling Breed

One can easily take a Malayalee out of Kerala but never take Kerala out of a Malayalee. Today there is no country in the world without a Malayalee sweating it out, home sick and longing to comeback albeit on vacation.

If migration was not enough, Kerala suffers from the lowest decadal population growth rate[2] (4.9 % against a national figure of 17.6 %). Pathanamthitta has already posted negative figures. In a decade, few more will. Malayalee, natives of Sage Parasuam’s land, is now a dwindling breed.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’?

Outward migration and low birth rate have created a population vacuum. This vacuum and plentiful opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour triggered inward migration of labourers[3] from other states. Kerala is now a miniature India.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’ is a great philosophy, as long as local and regional existence is not threatened. Four million people of non-native ethnicity packed into the small geographical confines will have serious impact on societal life. Cloistered in ghetto like communities for safety in numbers, migrants pose serious law and order challenges.

Signs of irrevocable demographical change, is openly visible on the streets. Native customs, traditions and culture are already stressed. Sooner than later, it could assume serious socio-ethnic and political tones. Assam-like situation in Kerala is not unlikely. It just needs a trigger.

But for now, most have fled the pandemic. Those who could not, will, as soon as travel is permitted. Though the exodus will temporarily cripple Kerala’s economy, serious thoughts needs to go into the matter.

Kerala Can

Given the conditions currently prevailing, if Karnataka and Tamil Nadu seal their borders, Keralites[4] could starve. Despite death of few critically ill patients and interventions by the centre, Karnataka refused to open national highways. This won’t be the last time, it happened. Armed with precedence, closure of all routes to and out of the state, in future crises, can’t be ruled out.

Inadequate food production and poor local employment opportunities has made Kerala a dependent consumer. Promotional sales of white goods and branded apparels in other states if compared would reveal that Kerala is a sellers’ delight, a hapless buyer. Goods and services, when profit driven, will flow.  Markets will force open even stubborn blocks. Even if it doesn’t, it is not an existential issue.

Food grain is a different issue. States can’t achieve self-reliance in everything, but adequacy in native food grains is achievable, especially when blessed with fertile lands. Given its abilities, if it resolves, Kerala can.

Food for Thought

In crisis situations, Kerala must NOT find itself short of grains and pulses. Impoverished can at best bargain alms. Self-sufficiency in food must be achieved. Terrace grown vegetables and symbolic farming cannot replace sustainable and profitable agriculture. Food adequacy can come about only if the entire bank of cultivable land comes under the plough. With eco-friendly technology under control and political will, Kerala can produce native food grains, enough and more for its population.

Agro-industry especially, those processing locally grown items must be promoted. If the state had adequate capability to collect, store and process milk, colossal wastage of milk could have been avoided during COVID. Opportunities for eco-friendly ventures are immense in Kerala. Societal support is what is required.

While tourism is a big-earner, it is difficult to sustain 

Backwaters remain the most favoured location
Photo- courtesy Chemicos(76-79)

it without long term ill-effects on local environment, customs and traditions. Money, however plenty, can’t buy food if there is nothing to eat. Moreover, with covid raging and re-infecting the world, when tourism would pick up remains a question. There is an urgent need to regulate tourism and look for alternative sources of income. Regulated tourism, is niche tourism and can earn more.

Labour Activism

Trade union serve as guardians against exploitation but collective bargaining beyond reasonable limits become counter-productive.

Eradication of parasitic activism can help create industry friendly environment. Contrary to official declarations, ‘nokku-kooli’ persists. Despite killing many a golden goose, few still venture home to roost.

Conducive environment helps germination of ideas and creation of wealth. If provided, many expatriates would return to invest and set up ventures. Public must understand that creation of wealth is not always at someone else’s cost. On the other hand, it creates opportunities and accrues wealth to many.

Adversity or Opportunity?

Migrant labour is inevitable for Kerala’s survival. Agriculture, construction, hospitality, housekeeping, tourism, in fact every aspect of economic activity, organized and unorganized, legal and illegal, has a large component of migrant labour. Industrial output of the state today is mostly moved by migrants, while local unions remain relevant lending brains to disruptions.

For 25 lakh Malayalees who migrated out for work, about a lakh or so busy in queues outside liquor vends and few lakhs living off the benevolence of others, there are about 40 lakh migrants in Kerala earning more than 25,000 crores annually. Even if all expatriates return, Kerala can absorb all of them, provided conditions become industry friendly and there is attitudinal change in the society.

A large number of expatriates, especially from the middle east is expected to return having lost their jobs. If the state administration accepts the challenge posed by migrant exodus as an opportunity, Kerala can kick-start the process of redemption, productively absorbing many returnees.

The crisis provides ideal conditions for change on a platter.

Decoding NREGA

Average daily wages for unskilled labour in the state hovers between Rs 600 to 800. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act provides limited days of work at much lesser wages. If four million migrant labourers can find daily work and remit home Rs 25,000 crores annually, why natives have to line up for NREGA doesn’t need much intellect to decipher.  Windfall awaits Kerala if it deploys NREGA initiatives to reclaim fallow lands.

Reorganizing Infrastructure

The state’s response to the floods and Nipa virus attack was commendable. Responsibility of loss of lives cannot be solely rested on insensitivity of a neighbouring state but must be accepted as symptom of deficiency in public health infrastructure.

State’s public health infrastructure must achieve self-sufficiency at district level itself. It will also eradicate ambulances flying on the roads, from one end of the state to the other sirens blaring, endangering many lives for saving one.

Alcoholism

Alcoholism is an issue that Kerala needs to address. This social problem stems from easy money and free time. Winding orderly queue outside liquor vends is not indicative of inherent discipline but of helpless dependence.

Keralites drank more than Rs 14,508 crore worth liquor in 2018-19, sending Rs 2,521 Crore into the coffers. While this may seem substantial, it amounts to just about 2.4% of the state income (compared to the projected revenue of Rs 103136 crores excluding borrowings).

The social cost inflicted by alcoholism is terrible and irredeemable. Prohibition is not the answer. It is time for Malayalees to tighten their belts (or mundu) to meet the challenge head on.

Hope Ahead

While it is easy to find faults and lament about the past, it is better to create history looking forward and putting in place appropriate policies. While geographical limitations can't be wished away, vulnerable dependence can be minimized. While population decline yields excellent social outcomes, inward migration should be controlled to safeguard native culture. While outward migration reaps economic dividends, encouraging natives to take up local opportunities may yield better economic dividends. Current situation requires great planning and greater societal participation.

Kerala is the best administered state in the country. It can also become the best place on the earth, truly Gods own country.

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[1] Kerala Land Reforms Act,1969.

[2] Economic Review 2016, spb.kerala.gov.in .

[3] 2.5 million according to a study by Gulati institute of finance and taxation 2013. A recent estimate pegs the figure at 4 million (V B Unnithan; Mathrubhumi.com ) repatriating to the tune of Rs 25,000 crores per annum to their states from Kerala.

[4] Population residing in Kerala inclusive of migrants.

PREDICTIONS OF A BLOOM AFTER GLOOM

There is Sun Even Behind The Darkest Cloud

Predictions ?

"Are these your predictions for the world? An interesting private message I got, in response to my mail on my article, “Covid-19- Shape of things to come”[1]. What I wrote, under "Change for Sure", is how I feel the world would emerge post COVID.  Amidst predictions of doom and gloom,I see the post-covidian world boom and bloom.

 I have reasons.

Embedded in The Problem Rest its Solutions

It was 1976 and ‘board exam’ was around the corner. Cheating was, neither smart nor cool. Moderation non-existent and application questions in plenty, inadequate preparation guaranteed failure. I was struggling with theorems of congruent triangles and its applications. I was, and still am, miserable at memorising by rote. Coincidence or act of God, I saw EN Prince, my batch mate revising ‘congruent triangles’. I sought help. While explaining application of the theorem, he said "Look carefully, you can find the solution within the problem". Too young to realise how profound the statement is, teenagers both, we saw in it nothing beyond a technique to answer. 

In the journey of life, it helped me weather many a storm.

Viral Campaign!

Societies across the world are struggling to contain the raging pandemic. The virus has found its vector to reach even Amazon jungles. Hundreds of thousands have already been infected.In due course, COVID will reach each one of us. Lock down will not stop but will certainly slow it down..

With medical services overwhelmed, a hundred thousand is already dead. Sadly, many more will die.Most of us will remain asymptomatic, some will suffer a little and few others would need intensive care but eventually Integral and herd immunity will save most of us.

With world economy so entwined, nobody remains untouched. Assembly lines have fallen silent, capacities idle, services unutilised, orders cancelled, loans un-serviced, unemployment sky rockets and markets are as good as dead. Amidst unprecedented human displacement, world is filled with suspicious uncertainty as rumours rage unabated.

Yet, emerge we will, albeit transformed. History is proof. 

Global Afflictions and Outcomes 

The plague of AD 541, the first recorded pandemic, killed till there was ‘no one left to die’. The most afflicted were labourers. Defying Justinian orders, workers demanded double and triple wages, bringing down wealth disparities. Then, population surged and disparities resurfaced with vengeance. 

The Bubonic plague (1347-1351), seemed like ‘end of the world. Resultant shortage of labour, despite the crown’s ‘Ordinance of Labour’, doubled income of the unskilled, reduced income disparity and drove down real estate value. Soon, it was, as if nothing had happened. 

The Spanish flu of 1918 that killed 25 to 50 million people was not any different. 

The great depression of 1929, wiped out 15% of world GDP in 43 months, shrank international trade, busted banks, contracted economies, generated unemployment and created unrest. The Indian freedom struggle officially commenced on December 31, 1929, with Pandit Nehru unfurling the tricolour and declaring complete independence as the goal of Indian National Congress. It also triggered the civil disobedience movement. The recession of 2008 triggered by American subprime crisis, bled stock markets, wiped out many MSMEs, crippled industries and rendered millions jobless. Efficient handling of the crisis helped government of the day in India, ride back to power. 

Pandemics, recessions and global crises also trigger inventions, innovations and interventions. While Keynesian initiatives by governments stimulate consumer demand and revitalise economies, entrepreneurship mushrooms and blooms. Unfortunately, social disruption and generalised mistrust associated with pandemic conditions, evident even today, impact individuals, societies and conduct of business. 

Impact 2020 Fatal Casualties 

COVID -19, unlike previous pandemics, will spread faster and reach farther. Connected world makes it inevitable. Despite overwhelmed medical facilities, COVID is unlikely to cause as many deaths as the first two. Indians, blessed with higher levels of integral immunity are likely to suffer much lesser fatal casualties. Mere survival promises opportunities. 

Exodus 

As countries locked borders and expatriates frantically tried to return, world witnessed large scale evacuation. India also witnessed domestic displacement, mostly of migrant labourers, on a scale ‘never-seen-before’. While previous pandemics eroded economies by depleting farm labour, COVID crippled the economy by forcing closure of businesses and migration of skilled, semiskilled and unskilled labour. It will be naive to believe that migrant labourers will return any time soon and things will pick up from where it was left. 

Home bound migration doesn't mean that agricultural sector will benefit. All migrant labourers, back home, cannot be absorbed by domestic farming. Large number of them will find themselves out of work. Added to this will be the load of foreign returnees.  This unexpected convergence can also create food shortages. Such conditions are ideal to seed social unrest. Planners must be wary of such eventualities. 

Size Zero? 

Covid made ‘work from home’ an acceptable medium of organisational interaction. While companies saved from reduced infrastructural and operational costs it could also have improved productivity. Though it temporarily assured continuation of existing livelihood for those on its pay-rolls, heartless it may sound, it exposes weak links and gives organisations opportunities to right-size. Right-sizing is only a humane synonym for manpower reduction. Survival now necessitates jettisoning baggage.

Companies may sugar-coat termination with ‘furlough’ and short ‘garden leave’. As situation looks up, they will hire, but rarely re-hire. Hiring and staffing is likely to see a paradigm shift. Focussed on core-competencies and profitability, companies will look at ‘size-zero’ structures and outsource non-core activities. This is likely to present a new set of opportunities. Angel funding is also likely to surge. Reorienting and retraining will be the buzz word. 

Forex: Torrent to Trickle 

Lakhs of people employed abroad could return jobless, unsure of the flight back. Significant part of forex reserves was piled up by these very people. World’s highest flow of forex could soon become a trickle precipitating resource crunch. This could become a serious concern for the economy. The well accounted and production-based work culture they are accustomed to, if absorbed, can increase domestic productivity manifold. It can be the catalyst to actualise the “Make-in India” programme. The emerging market will be shaped by Covidian dynamics. Superficial bonhomie and camaraderie apart, covid, will trigger new market realignments. It presents us with both opportunities and challenges. If agile, India can grab markets abroad and even fill HR vacuums abroad. 

Adapt to Thrive

It is not only the manufacturing sector which has been hard hit. Inexplicably linked, each sector of the economy, has felt the impact.  Some will perish but others would survive. Those which adapt to emerging conditions would survive to thrive.

Sky and Sea

Restrictions, on international and domestic travel, might have grounded aircrafts and held ships at sea, but cargo still moves. Fuel and maintenance costs have plummeted. Up in the air, hovering costs have vanished and carbon footprints obliterated. At ports ships berth and leave faster having unloaded and loaded. But these capital-intensive investments are bleeding from ‘unkindest’ of covidian cuts. Survival and profitability would call for well-crafted consolidations and collaborations, mostly government supported. Sky is the limit and fathomless the opportunities.

Land

Land movement is the most affected. While human movement is still restricted, essentials continue to move, in fact, faster while white goods have been relegated. Prioritisation and categorisation of goods for interstate movement is redefining logistics. Source-to-destination containers are making logistics easier and faster. After initial panic that emptied out stores, shelves are full. Retailing has taken a new shape. Home delivery is the new normal. Households having experienced it under restricted mobility will not shun it even if controls are removed. There is no end to opportunities for logisticians.

Services

With, people mostly home bound, tour operators, mobility aggregators and hospitality providers have been hit hard. It will take, more than a while, before business gets back to usual. “Adapt’ will be the new success mantra and ingenuity the key. Those who can reorient, repackage and relaunch services fastest could have the early bird advantage. Others could learn from their ‘experience’.

It is also clear that nothing will remain untouched by COVID. everything will be redefined post COVID. Remotely connected function will be the accepted norm. Education, medicine, governance and every possible service will see paradigm shifts, all based on connectivity. it also offers chance for governments to individually track each citizen. The avenues are countless, advantages immense and if misused terrible.

Connectivity Providers

The ones who will dig gold will be those providing connectivity. With physical movements curtailed and likely to remain so, data connectivity will be the new gold mine. Market could coronate 5G. With digital transactions being the norm, business and business-related activities would primarily be transacted online. The potential is unimaginable.

Catapult

This is not the first-time mankind is encountering a catastrophe. We have seen and weathered many.This too, “we shall overcome”.  Economies too have experienced setback before. Each setback was like a catapult. It pulls economies back only to launch them even higher into the stratosphere.

‘Covidian Crisis’ is no different. It’s a sea of opportunities awaiting explorers. 

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[1] COVID-19- Shape of things to come, jacobshorizon.blogspot.com