PREDICTIONS OF A BLOOM AFTER GLOOM

There is Sun Even Behind The Darkest Cloud

Predictions ?

"Are these your predictions for the world? An interesting private message I got, in response to my mail on my article, “Covid-19- Shape of things to come”[1]. What I wrote, under "Change for Sure", is how I feel the world would emerge post COVID.  Amidst predictions of doom and gloom,I see the post-covidian world boom and bloom.

 I have reasons.

Embedded in The Problem Rest its Solutions

It was 1976 and ‘board exam’ was around the corner. Cheating was, neither smart nor cool. Moderation non-existent and application questions in plenty, inadequate preparation guaranteed failure. I was struggling with theorems of congruent triangles and its applications. I was, and still am, miserable at memorising by rote. Coincidence or act of God, I saw EN Prince, my batch mate revising ‘congruent triangles’. I sought help. While explaining application of the theorem, he said "Look carefully, you can find the solution within the problem". Too young to realise how profound the statement is, teenagers both, we saw in it nothing beyond a technique to answer. 

In the journey of life, it helped me weather many a storm.

Viral Campaign!

Societies across the world are struggling to contain the raging pandemic. The virus has found its vector to reach even Amazon jungles. Hundreds of thousands have already been infected.In due course, COVID will reach each one of us. Lock down will not stop but will certainly slow it down..

With medical services overwhelmed, a hundred thousand is already dead. Sadly, many more will die.Most of us will remain asymptomatic, some will suffer a little and few others would need intensive care but eventually Integral and herd immunity will save most of us.

With world economy so entwined, nobody remains untouched. Assembly lines have fallen silent, capacities idle, services unutilised, orders cancelled, loans un-serviced, unemployment sky rockets and markets are as good as dead. Amidst unprecedented human displacement, world is filled with suspicious uncertainty as rumours rage unabated.

Yet, emerge we will, albeit transformed. History is proof. 

Global Afflictions and Outcomes 

The plague of AD 541, the first recorded pandemic, killed till there was ‘no one left to die’. The most afflicted were labourers. Defying Justinian orders, workers demanded double and triple wages, bringing down wealth disparities. Then, population surged and disparities resurfaced with vengeance. 

The Bubonic plague (1347-1351), seemed like ‘end of the world. Resultant shortage of labour, despite the crown’s ‘Ordinance of Labour’, doubled income of the unskilled, reduced income disparity and drove down real estate value. Soon, it was, as if nothing had happened. 

The Spanish flu of 1918 that killed 25 to 50 million people was not any different. 

The great depression of 1929, wiped out 15% of world GDP in 43 months, shrank international trade, busted banks, contracted economies, generated unemployment and created unrest. The Indian freedom struggle officially commenced on December 31, 1929, with Pandit Nehru unfurling the tricolour and declaring complete independence as the goal of Indian National Congress. It also triggered the civil disobedience movement. The recession of 2008 triggered by American subprime crisis, bled stock markets, wiped out many MSMEs, crippled industries and rendered millions jobless. Efficient handling of the crisis helped government of the day in India, ride back to power. 

Pandemics, recessions and global crises also trigger inventions, innovations and interventions. While Keynesian initiatives by governments stimulate consumer demand and revitalise economies, entrepreneurship mushrooms and blooms. Unfortunately, social disruption and generalised mistrust associated with pandemic conditions, evident even today, impact individuals, societies and conduct of business. 

Impact 2020 Fatal Casualties 

COVID -19, unlike previous pandemics, will spread faster and reach farther. Connected world makes it inevitable. Despite overwhelmed medical facilities, COVID is unlikely to cause as many deaths as the first two. Indians, blessed with higher levels of integral immunity are likely to suffer much lesser fatal casualties. Mere survival promises opportunities. 

Exodus 

As countries locked borders and expatriates frantically tried to return, world witnessed large scale evacuation. India also witnessed domestic displacement, mostly of migrant labourers, on a scale ‘never-seen-before’. While previous pandemics eroded economies by depleting farm labour, COVID crippled the economy by forcing closure of businesses and migration of skilled, semiskilled and unskilled labour. It will be naive to believe that migrant labourers will return any time soon and things will pick up from where it was left. 

Home bound migration doesn't mean that agricultural sector will benefit. All migrant labourers, back home, cannot be absorbed by domestic farming. Large number of them will find themselves out of work. Added to this will be the load of foreign returnees.  This unexpected convergence can also create food shortages. Such conditions are ideal to seed social unrest. Planners must be wary of such eventualities. 

Size Zero? 

Covid made ‘work from home’ an acceptable medium of organisational interaction. While companies saved from reduced infrastructural and operational costs it could also have improved productivity. Though it temporarily assured continuation of existing livelihood for those on its pay-rolls, heartless it may sound, it exposes weak links and gives organisations opportunities to right-size. Right-sizing is only a humane synonym for manpower reduction. Survival now necessitates jettisoning baggage.

Companies may sugar-coat termination with ‘furlough’ and short ‘garden leave’. As situation looks up, they will hire, but rarely re-hire. Hiring and staffing is likely to see a paradigm shift. Focussed on core-competencies and profitability, companies will look at ‘size-zero’ structures and outsource non-core activities. This is likely to present a new set of opportunities. Angel funding is also likely to surge. Reorienting and retraining will be the buzz word. 

Forex: Torrent to Trickle 

Lakhs of people employed abroad could return jobless, unsure of the flight back. Significant part of forex reserves was piled up by these very people. World’s highest flow of forex could soon become a trickle precipitating resource crunch. This could become a serious concern for the economy. The well accounted and production-based work culture they are accustomed to, if absorbed, can increase domestic productivity manifold. It can be the catalyst to actualise the “Make-in India” programme. The emerging market will be shaped by Covidian dynamics. Superficial bonhomie and camaraderie apart, covid, will trigger new market realignments. It presents us with both opportunities and challenges. If agile, India can grab markets abroad and even fill HR vacuums abroad. 

Adapt to Thrive

It is not only the manufacturing sector which has been hard hit. Inexplicably linked, each sector of the economy, has felt the impact.  Some will perish but others would survive. Those which adapt to emerging conditions would survive to thrive.

Sky and Sea

Restrictions, on international and domestic travel, might have grounded aircrafts and held ships at sea, but cargo still moves. Fuel and maintenance costs have plummeted. Up in the air, hovering costs have vanished and carbon footprints obliterated. At ports ships berth and leave faster having unloaded and loaded. But these capital-intensive investments are bleeding from ‘unkindest’ of covidian cuts. Survival and profitability would call for well-crafted consolidations and collaborations, mostly government supported. Sky is the limit and fathomless the opportunities.

Land

Land movement is the most affected. While human movement is still restricted, essentials continue to move, in fact, faster while white goods have been relegated. Prioritisation and categorisation of goods for interstate movement is redefining logistics. Source-to-destination containers are making logistics easier and faster. After initial panic that emptied out stores, shelves are full. Retailing has taken a new shape. Home delivery is the new normal. Households having experienced it under restricted mobility will not shun it even if controls are removed. There is no end to opportunities for logisticians.

Services

With, people mostly home bound, tour operators, mobility aggregators and hospitality providers have been hit hard. It will take, more than a while, before business gets back to usual. “Adapt’ will be the new success mantra and ingenuity the key. Those who can reorient, repackage and relaunch services fastest could have the early bird advantage. Others could learn from their ‘experience’.

It is also clear that nothing will remain untouched by COVID. everything will be redefined post COVID. Remotely connected function will be the accepted norm. Education, medicine, governance and every possible service will see paradigm shifts, all based on connectivity. it also offers chance for governments to individually track each citizen. The avenues are countless, advantages immense and if misused terrible.

Connectivity Providers

The ones who will dig gold will be those providing connectivity. With physical movements curtailed and likely to remain so, data connectivity will be the new gold mine. Market could coronate 5G. With digital transactions being the norm, business and business-related activities would primarily be transacted online. The potential is unimaginable.

Catapult

This is not the first-time mankind is encountering a catastrophe. We have seen and weathered many.This too, “we shall overcome”.  Economies too have experienced setback before. Each setback was like a catapult. It pulls economies back only to launch them even higher into the stratosphere.

‘Covidian Crisis’ is no different. It’s a sea of opportunities awaiting explorers. 

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[1] COVID-19- Shape of things to come, jacobshorizon.blogspot.com