Killing the Goose For The Golden Eggs - Where is the Goose?

 Stories for Life

We all love stories and we all grew up hearing stories, countless and each with a message. Each one of us certainly remembers at least a few stories. Few would recall the embedded message. How many amongst us would have internalised those lessons for life?

Two stories that I heard as a child and never forgot growing up were that of the Goose that laid the golden egg and of the greedy dog. The owner of the goose, overcome with greed, tried to rip off everything at one go. Rip off he did, unfortunately of himself. He lost the very source that could easily have been his means of livelihood, sustenance and growth to being rich, surely but slowly. The dog already had something in his secure possession but tried grabbing, a reflection, something well beyond his reach and anyway not his by any claim. In the process he lost forever even what he had. 

While scanning today's newspaper I came across a piece of news that reminded me of both the stories together. Reading through the newspaper, I realised that these stories were timeless. It happens everyday, all around us and in different forms.  We only have to look around. 

Destination Kerala

Kerala has long been marketed as the ultimate tourist destination with the tagline “God’s Own Country”. Blessed with a climate that remains conducive for tourism throughout the year, domestic and foreign tourism can easily fuel a large part of the state's economy. With one of the highest density of allopathy hospitals in the world and as home to countless outlets of traditional Ayurvedic and naturopathy treatment, medical tourism is another area that the government can easily promote to run the local economy. Kerala, if well managed, can give Thailand, Bali and Sri Lanka and other southeast asian tourist destinations a run for their money. Tourism has been a money earner for the state but if indications are to be believed, it is declining.

Mega conferences and melas where ‘Who is Who' of glitterati as brand ambassadors showcase ‘Brand Kerala’ as a sought after tourist destination are not rare. Government proclamations and initiatives are regularly declared to promote each region and locality in the state as a tourist hub. The reality, if the news item is to be believed, seems headed in the opposite direction. It points to a fundamental fault line that has been the bane of Kerala's growth prospects.

 

Whom Should the Tourist Go With?

"Whom should the tourist go with? Apprehension that Cruise liners may give Cochin the go by'', read the caption of an article in the 31st March edition of a widely read Malayalam daily. The details indicated that the taxi unions operating at the port have made it clear that they won't allow coaches of the tour operators to ferry tourists from cruise liners to various local destinations of tourist interest. The tourists, they insist, must use those vehicles affiliated to their union. According to the article, about 52 Cruise Liners come to Kochi and about 200 to 800 tourists come out from each of the liners for sightseeing in and around Kochi. This is the pie being contested for. The news also expressed the apprehension of Cruise Liners avoiding Cochin if the tour operators are not allowed to operate their AC coaches.

Economics

It is common knowledge that each tourist wants to spend the least and have the most. Coaches maintain the integrity of the tourist group,  take on guides, some of them have inbuilt toilets, provide better sightseeing facilities and are far more cheaper than taxis. World across, tour operators rely on coaches to ferry tourists. Bigger coach translates to more tourists, easier to manage, fewer guides and  better economy of volumes. It keeps prices down for the tourist and ensures better margins for the tour operator.

But  taxi operators seem to have nothing to do with the choice of the tourist, his concern for costs or the tour operators' bottom lines. They want coaches to stay away. In the reconciliation meeting, the news item said, they seem to have agreed to split the pie half-half. If their demand is acceded to, tourists will have to forgo the far better and cheaper option. To the tourists it is clearly a rip off. To the practical and cost conscious tourist, it will appear that the union is asking more for the right to rip off than the right to livelihood. Expecting foreign arrivals to abide by the diktats of the local taxi unions is asking too much, especially when equal or better options are not far away.

Economic transactions integral to  tourist activity provide impetus to the local economy. Tourism does not limit itself to being money for drivers. It actually energises a lot of small associated businesses. Keeping it cheap ensures high volume turnovers. If the options are available and costs are right, tentacles of economics spinoff spread to other areas, even remotely linked. Thailand, Sri Lanka and Bali are classic examples. If Cruise Liners sail past Cochin, then not just the taxi drivers but the entire ecosystem related to tourism stands to lose. 

The stand of the union prima facie seems to be “If for anyone, why not for us?”, apparently harmless. But their demand drives up costs and that is detrimental to business interests and therefore the entire community. It is not the first time that Kerala has lost opportunities because of  unreasonable demands by unions.  Claims of a friendly industrial climate in the state notwithstanding, many industrialists and entrepreneurs have flagged bitter experiences as truth. But we are either drowned in delusions of denial or we have started believing in the reflections of the narrative we created for ourselves. A third possibility is that the majority has resigned to afflictions as inevitable. Whichever is the truth, it is counterproductive.

 

Killing the Geese! But Who is the Goose?

Kerala and Kerallites must ask themselves as to why services like Ola and Uber are shunning the state. If it is the opportunity to work and earn that people are looking for, then services like ola and uber that effectively operate world over and take first time visitors without problems should have thrived here too. The domestic requirements especially, that of the ever increasing share of  geriatric population in the state, itself should have fuelled growth of such services. It could also have achieved large volumes across the state and provided employment to many locals. The hesitation of most taxi and auto drivers in Kerala to go metered is a well known fact. 

Many aspects of the Malayali society's daily life have an abundance of “paise wise and rupee foolish” (replacing the “penny wise - pound foolish”) acts. The abrupt end of the metro at Alwaye rather than finishing it at the airport, is a classic example of foresight akin to institutional blindness. The taxi unions movement to stop or make it difficult for call-taxi operators to operate at the airport is another example. Even the call-taxi operators have joined hands and have found ways and means to rip off subverting the call taxi app. It will provide short term success and gains but in the long run it deals a very bad hand for the local economy. The rip off attitude is not confined to the tourism sector alone. The malice has spread across every segment of the service industry. People, sooner than later, will adopt means to escape being milked. 

Whether it is the greed to lay hands on all the golden eggs now and all at once or the greed to grab the bone even if it is only a reflection, the end result is the same; loss. Unfortunately malayalees, much touted as the most educated in India, have neither adopted productive ways nor stood up against such counterproductive steps by unions. Has collective bargaining, once a tool for survival, become a means of coercion?

The question remains

Are we killing the Goose that lays the Golden egg? 

And by the way are we not the Geese ourselves ?

OVERSIGHT: ALL ABOUT CONTAINING OVERSIGHT

Contranym

Oversight is an interesting contranym! Too many incidents of oversight prove absence of oversight!

Contranym?

A contranym is a word with the same spelling but the opposite meaning. In other words, it’s a homonym that’s an antonym. A homonym is a word spelled like another with a different meaning while an antonym is a word with the opposite meaning, context in which it is used deciding the meaning.

Oversight, in the context of ‘overseeing’, is about supervision but in its contranym context, it’s about errors unintentional or otherwise. Frequent incidents of oversight indicate systemic rot in the system due to ineffective oversight; disastrous and fatal for organisations.

I can't help but narrate such a story I witnessed being scripted! 

Sun Like Nowhere Else

The story unfolds in the most unbelievably beautiful settings of the backwaters in God’s Own country. To believe, one has to experience the morning sun, reflecting itself in grandeur over the still waters of the Punnamada, an extension of Vembanad Lake. It is refreshing to the soul, like nowhere else. As the dusk cloaks the lake, flares of the refinery in the far distance, a stark reminder of the pollutants we spew, gives another side of life.

The Front Office

I arrived at the front office of the reputed resort after prior intimation and having provided the required documents online. I reached as per the schedule intimated. However, the front office was vacant. I had to look for the executives. Little while, not one but three of them emerged from the room behind.

Once they arrived, they asked me for my documents. I replied that I had already forwarded those except photo ids which I had refused to give online. While the executives busied themselves rummaging through a pile of documents, I went off to park my car as valet parking facilities had been discontinued due to covid. It took me a while to find space and park. Though I was the only guest to check in at that time, it still took them time to successfully ‘excavate’ my documents and complete the formalities of check-in. Clearly all that pre-check in calls and intimation of arrival time for fast smooth check-in remained on paper. 

Their inefficiency, cost us the customary reception and our welcome drink.

Was it an oversight; an inadvertent error of a few youngsters enjoying themselves at the cost of work or deeper malaise, deteriorating work ethics; lack of oversight? 

The Restaurant

The most important element of any vacation, after 'location', is dining experience. Thus, one of the key departments of any resort is the food and beverage Department, visible to all as the resort restaurant.

A good restaurant stands out from others with its range of spread, quality of food, hygiene, ambiance and the quality of service. Each good restaurant develops a consistent signature quality. Over time, this signature becomes its USP.

Punctuality is a key element of service. When the board outside clearly indicates that the restaurant will be open from 7:30 AM for breakfast, it requires the first batch of the mandated spread laid out and the staff to be at station, ready to receive the first guest latest by 7:30 AM. The room should have been aired well, lights and fans or air conditioners functional. Tables should have been laid with clean tablemats, cutlery and crockery and stewards of the morning shift at stations with welcome smiles.

Incomplete spread even at 8:15 AM and staff trickling in well after 8 o'clock, as a matter of practice, for breakfast engagement at 7:30 AM and no one to question is clear indication of deep-rooted rot. An order from the live kitchen counter when served dead cold and flies perched fearlessly on the platters say a lot about the management. Coffee in burnt milk clearly shows the quality controls in place. The extent to which the rot had already been internalised became evident when concerned individuals did nothing about the issues flagged. 

No attempt to correct it and not even an apology! Surely these just couldn’t be random instances of oversight. The rot was real. 

An Oasis

It is not that everything was bad. There were oases in the desert of insensitive incompetence.

The ‘activity department’ seemed to be purpose driven. They made sure anyone who came around was engaged.

Housekeeping did justice to the brand image. The efficiency with which issues brought to their notice was attended to is commendable. Once the issue was settled, feedback from the guest was taken by those higher in the chain of housekeeping. It clearly showed that the organisational system caters for oversight and redressal mechanisms. Some seemed to hold it dear, while others had no fear. 

Oversight Mechanisms

All organisations create oversight mechanisms to promote functional efficiency and organisational growth. Oversight structures are subsumed in organisational hierarchy and come with clear enunciations of authority, responsibility and accountability. When effective, it reduces the probability of instances of oversight, builds better controls and improves productivity. 

Process of oversight normally involves continuous evaluation and periodic reviews of performances against standards expected and well-defined parameters, by and through channels of reporting. It includes aspects of organisational feedbacks that finally result in differential growth amongst employees. Customer feedback, especially in hospitality and service organisations, is one tool that oversight mechanism heavily relies upon, but often distorted.  

Eliciting Feedback

It has become a practice to elicit favourable feedbacks at the time of check out. The process is so well ‘crafted’ that the guest checking out is ‘subtly managed’ into giving ratings better than what he or she would have given, if left free. This practice has become rampant amongst almost all service providers. 

This actually is the “most unkindest” cut that can be inflicted by employees on the organisation. It actually destroys from its very roots, any meaningful feedback from patrons. A managed feedback not only hides systemic flaws, it reinforces failure and accelerates disintegration. Unfortunately, when quality is blindly quantified and wilfully distorted at source, the soul of true feedback is dead; buried alive. 

Modern Don Quixote

Leader of an organisation who insulates himself or herself from flaws and problems, relying on manufactured feedback is like the foolish captain of a ship, happy seeing the bow rise, ignorant of the stern taking in water. Elicited feedbacks can bloat egos, but do little to stem the rot. Leaders, who create and perpetuate such an organisational culture and thrive on such make-believe spectacles are modern-day Don Quixotes busy transforming their organisation into ‘Rocinante’ the half-starved horse.

As incompetence becomes the norm, discontent ripples over and organisations disintegrate. Don Quixotes can feign gallop on the gasping Rocinante  till the ground gives way.

POST COVIDIAN KERALA : ADDRESS CRUMBLE ZONES FOR A BETTER TOMORROW

Better Than The Best

God's Own Country

Kerala’s fight against COVID-19 has been remarkable. The efficiency with which the state managed the pandemic is trending on social media.In the ‘covidian’ fight, Kerala has proved to be better than the best. Miles ahead in many social indices, other Indian states will take eons to catch up with Kerala.

Crumble Zones

Amidst euphoria of ‘success’ against COVID, some disturbing headlines also appeared. These were about Karnataka sealing its borders, Tamil Nadu controlling flow of goods, dumping of 80,000 litres of milk, protest by migrant workers, ‘nokku kooli’ (gawking charges) problems, impending return of jobless expatriates, loss of revenue from liquor sales, death of patients denied medical care and an estimated loss of 80% GSDP, each a pointer to socio-economic crumble zones integral to the state.

Fragile and heavily dependent food security, inadequate industrial production, industry-unfriendly environment, ever looming return of expatriates, native unemployment amidst plentiful opportunities, alcoholism and alcohol dependent exchequer, ironic inadequacies of an efficient public health system and high per capita debt burden are visible crumble zones of the state. Unlike crumble zones in a car which absorb impact shocks and save occupants, socio-economic crumble zones can on impact wreak havoc.

Vulnerable Existence

Hardly any agricultural or industrial production to talk of, the rain-washed, ‘God’s own country’ is a consumer state dependent on the rest of the country for survival. Kerala neither produces enough for its own consumption nor provides environment conducive to industrial production. Kerala's economy is driven primarily by expatriate remittances. Alcohol and lottery earnings do help.

Tiller-Abandoned Land

While land reforms[1] transferred ‘land to the tillers’, it sounded death-knell to profitable agriculture. Micro holdings of cultivable land and dearth of native labour turned land fallow. Native dietary items like jackfruit and tubers like tapioca, yam, once abundant, are hardly cultivated. Kerala is dependent on others to fill its stomachs. Cash crops like rubber, pepper, coffee and cardamom are on laboured breath. Coir industry, once Malayalee monopoly and livelihood for thousands, is also almost dead. Incidentally, the state derives its name from ‘Kera’ or coconut. Cashew industry, once another monopoly, is on ventilator.

Hara-kiri, Malayalee Style

Unreasonable demands, unrelentingly bargained, along with ‘Nokku-kooli’ precipitated conditions unfavourable to industrial and agricultural investment. Labour disputes, with political patronage irrespective of ideologies, ‘locked-out’ many production facilities that eventually closed shop. Kerala became land of ‘bandhs’ and ‘hartals’. While Malayalees in Kerala ‘enjoyed’ committing economic hara-kiri, Non-resident Malayalees, especially expatriates toiled, many in inhuman conditions, to feed needs and greed back home.

Outward Migration

Education and literacy are not synonyms and don’t necessarily make people employable or create jobs. In Kerala, literacy created an environment where natives became reluctant to take up manual labour. Literates discarded traditional occupations and the few who did, became unaffordable and overbearing. Armed with useless degrees, Malayalees couldn’t find enough blue or white-collar jobs of their choice, at home. Local opportunities, in plenty, went unsubscribed.

Malayalees, aware of opportunities elsewhere and managed foothold, migrated, first a trickle, then a torrent. Lured by petro-dollars, they swarm the middle east, mostly doing the very work they shunned doing at home. Doctors, engineers, nurses, paramedics, technicians, anyone and everyone followed. By conservative estimates more than 25 lakh Malayalees live abroad, more than 18 lakhs in middle east alone. Wherever possible they become citizens.

Kerala finds itself in a very a peculiar situation. Plenty of able-bodied natives are unemployed and live off others while forty lakh migrants find work.

Dwindling Breed

One can easily take a Malayalee out of Kerala but never take Kerala out of a Malayalee. Today there is no country in the world without a Malayalee sweating it out, home sick and longing to comeback albeit on vacation.

If migration was not enough, Kerala suffers from the lowest decadal population growth rate[2] (4.9 % against a national figure of 17.6 %). Pathanamthitta has already posted negative figures. In a decade, few more will. Malayalee, natives of Sage Parasuam’s land, is now a dwindling breed.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’?

Outward migration and low birth rate have created a population vacuum. This vacuum and plentiful opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour triggered inward migration of labourers[3] from other states. Kerala is now a miniature India.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’ is a great philosophy, as long as local and regional existence is not threatened. Four million people of non-native ethnicity packed into the small geographical confines will have serious impact on societal life. Cloistered in ghetto like communities for safety in numbers, migrants pose serious law and order challenges.

Signs of irrevocable demographical change, is openly visible on the streets. Native customs, traditions and culture are already stressed. Sooner than later, it could assume serious socio-ethnic and political tones. Assam-like situation in Kerala is not unlikely. It just needs a trigger.

But for now, most have fled the pandemic. Those who could not, will, as soon as travel is permitted. Though the exodus will temporarily cripple Kerala’s economy, serious thoughts needs to go into the matter.

Kerala Can

Given the conditions currently prevailing, if Karnataka and Tamil Nadu seal their borders, Keralites[4] could starve. Despite death of few critically ill patients and interventions by the centre, Karnataka refused to open national highways. This won’t be the last time, it happened. Armed with precedence, closure of all routes to and out of the state, in future crises, can’t be ruled out.

Inadequate food production and poor local employment opportunities has made Kerala a dependent consumer. Promotional sales of white goods and branded apparels in other states if compared would reveal that Kerala is a sellers’ delight, a hapless buyer. Goods and services, when profit driven, will flow.  Markets will force open even stubborn blocks. Even if it doesn’t, it is not an existential issue.

Food grain is a different issue. States can’t achieve self-reliance in everything, but adequacy in native food grains is achievable, especially when blessed with fertile lands. Given its abilities, if it resolves, Kerala can.

Food for Thought

In crisis situations, Kerala must NOT find itself short of grains and pulses. Impoverished can at best bargain alms. Self-sufficiency in food must be achieved. Terrace grown vegetables and symbolic farming cannot replace sustainable and profitable agriculture. Food adequacy can come about only if the entire bank of cultivable land comes under the plough. With eco-friendly technology under control and political will, Kerala can produce native food grains, enough and more for its population.

Agro-industry especially, those processing locally grown items must be promoted. If the state had adequate capability to collect, store and process milk, colossal wastage of milk could have been avoided during COVID. Opportunities for eco-friendly ventures are immense in Kerala. Societal support is what is required.

While tourism is a big-earner, it is difficult to sustain 

Backwaters remain the most favoured location
Photo- courtesy Chemicos(76-79)

it without long term ill-effects on local environment, customs and traditions. Money, however plenty, can’t buy food if there is nothing to eat. Moreover, with covid raging and re-infecting the world, when tourism would pick up remains a question. There is an urgent need to regulate tourism and look for alternative sources of income. Regulated tourism, is niche tourism and can earn more.

Labour Activism

Trade union serve as guardians against exploitation but collective bargaining beyond reasonable limits become counter-productive.

Eradication of parasitic activism can help create industry friendly environment. Contrary to official declarations, ‘nokku-kooli’ persists. Despite killing many a golden goose, few still venture home to roost.

Conducive environment helps germination of ideas and creation of wealth. If provided, many expatriates would return to invest and set up ventures. Public must understand that creation of wealth is not always at someone else’s cost. On the other hand, it creates opportunities and accrues wealth to many.

Adversity or Opportunity?

Migrant labour is inevitable for Kerala’s survival. Agriculture, construction, hospitality, housekeeping, tourism, in fact every aspect of economic activity, organized and unorganized, legal and illegal, has a large component of migrant labour. Industrial output of the state today is mostly moved by migrants, while local unions remain relevant lending brains to disruptions.

For 25 lakh Malayalees who migrated out for work, about a lakh or so busy in queues outside liquor vends and few lakhs living off the benevolence of others, there are about 40 lakh migrants in Kerala earning more than 25,000 crores annually. Even if all expatriates return, Kerala can absorb all of them, provided conditions become industry friendly and there is attitudinal change in the society.

A large number of expatriates, especially from the middle east is expected to return having lost their jobs. If the state administration accepts the challenge posed by migrant exodus as an opportunity, Kerala can kick-start the process of redemption, productively absorbing many returnees.

The crisis provides ideal conditions for change on a platter.

Decoding NREGA

Average daily wages for unskilled labour in the state hovers between Rs 600 to 800. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act provides limited days of work at much lesser wages. If four million migrant labourers can find daily work and remit home Rs 25,000 crores annually, why natives have to line up for NREGA doesn’t need much intellect to decipher.  Windfall awaits Kerala if it deploys NREGA initiatives to reclaim fallow lands.

Reorganizing Infrastructure

The state’s response to the floods and Nipa virus attack was commendable. Responsibility of loss of lives cannot be solely rested on insensitivity of a neighbouring state but must be accepted as symptom of deficiency in public health infrastructure.

State’s public health infrastructure must achieve self-sufficiency at district level itself. It will also eradicate ambulances flying on the roads, from one end of the state to the other sirens blaring, endangering many lives for saving one.

Alcoholism

Alcoholism is an issue that Kerala needs to address. This social problem stems from easy money and free time. Winding orderly queue outside liquor vends is not indicative of inherent discipline but of helpless dependence.

Keralites drank more than Rs 14,508 crore worth liquor in 2018-19, sending Rs 2,521 Crore into the coffers. While this may seem substantial, it amounts to just about 2.4% of the state income (compared to the projected revenue of Rs 103136 crores excluding borrowings).

The social cost inflicted by alcoholism is terrible and irredeemable. Prohibition is not the answer. It is time for Malayalees to tighten their belts (or mundu) to meet the challenge head on.

Hope Ahead

While it is easy to find faults and lament about the past, it is better to create history looking forward and putting in place appropriate policies. While geographical limitations can't be wished away, vulnerable dependence can be minimized. While population decline yields excellent social outcomes, inward migration should be controlled to safeguard native culture. While outward migration reaps economic dividends, encouraging natives to take up local opportunities may yield better economic dividends. Current situation requires great planning and greater societal participation.

Kerala is the best administered state in the country. It can also become the best place on the earth, truly Gods own country.

---

[1] Kerala Land Reforms Act,1969.

[2] Economic Review 2016, spb.kerala.gov.in .

[3] 2.5 million according to a study by Gulati institute of finance and taxation 2013. A recent estimate pegs the figure at 4 million (V B Unnithan; Mathrubhumi.com ) repatriating to the tune of Rs 25,000 crores per annum to their states from Kerala.

[4] Population residing in Kerala inclusive of migrants.

PREDICTIONS OF A BLOOM AFTER GLOOM

There is Sun Even Behind The Darkest Cloud

Predictions ?

"Are these your predictions for the world? An interesting private message I got, in response to my mail on my article, “Covid-19- Shape of things to come”[1]. What I wrote, under "Change for Sure", is how I feel the world would emerge post COVID.  Amidst predictions of doom and gloom,I see the post-covidian world boom and bloom.

 I have reasons.

Embedded in The Problem Rest its Solutions

It was 1976 and ‘board exam’ was around the corner. Cheating was, neither smart nor cool. Moderation non-existent and application questions in plenty, inadequate preparation guaranteed failure. I was struggling with theorems of congruent triangles and its applications. I was, and still am, miserable at memorising by rote. Coincidence or act of God, I saw EN Prince, my batch mate revising ‘congruent triangles’. I sought help. While explaining application of the theorem, he said "Look carefully, you can find the solution within the problem". Too young to realise how profound the statement is, teenagers both, we saw in it nothing beyond a technique to answer. 

In the journey of life, it helped me weather many a storm.

Viral Campaign!

Societies across the world are struggling to contain the raging pandemic. The virus has found its vector to reach even Amazon jungles. Hundreds of thousands have already been infected.In due course, COVID will reach each one of us. Lock down will not stop but will certainly slow it down..

With medical services overwhelmed, a hundred thousand is already dead. Sadly, many more will die.Most of us will remain asymptomatic, some will suffer a little and few others would need intensive care but eventually Integral and herd immunity will save most of us.

With world economy so entwined, nobody remains untouched. Assembly lines have fallen silent, capacities idle, services unutilised, orders cancelled, loans un-serviced, unemployment sky rockets and markets are as good as dead. Amidst unprecedented human displacement, world is filled with suspicious uncertainty as rumours rage unabated.

Yet, emerge we will, albeit transformed. History is proof. 

Global Afflictions and Outcomes 

The plague of AD 541, the first recorded pandemic, killed till there was ‘no one left to die’. The most afflicted were labourers. Defying Justinian orders, workers demanded double and triple wages, bringing down wealth disparities. Then, population surged and disparities resurfaced with vengeance. 

The Bubonic plague (1347-1351), seemed like ‘end of the world. Resultant shortage of labour, despite the crown’s ‘Ordinance of Labour’, doubled income of the unskilled, reduced income disparity and drove down real estate value. Soon, it was, as if nothing had happened. 

The Spanish flu of 1918 that killed 25 to 50 million people was not any different. 

The great depression of 1929, wiped out 15% of world GDP in 43 months, shrank international trade, busted banks, contracted economies, generated unemployment and created unrest. The Indian freedom struggle officially commenced on December 31, 1929, with Pandit Nehru unfurling the tricolour and declaring complete independence as the goal of Indian National Congress. It also triggered the civil disobedience movement. The recession of 2008 triggered by American subprime crisis, bled stock markets, wiped out many MSMEs, crippled industries and rendered millions jobless. Efficient handling of the crisis helped government of the day in India, ride back to power. 

Pandemics, recessions and global crises also trigger inventions, innovations and interventions. While Keynesian initiatives by governments stimulate consumer demand and revitalise economies, entrepreneurship mushrooms and blooms. Unfortunately, social disruption and generalised mistrust associated with pandemic conditions, evident even today, impact individuals, societies and conduct of business. 

Impact 2020 Fatal Casualties 

COVID -19, unlike previous pandemics, will spread faster and reach farther. Connected world makes it inevitable. Despite overwhelmed medical facilities, COVID is unlikely to cause as many deaths as the first two. Indians, blessed with higher levels of integral immunity are likely to suffer much lesser fatal casualties. Mere survival promises opportunities. 

Exodus 

As countries locked borders and expatriates frantically tried to return, world witnessed large scale evacuation. India also witnessed domestic displacement, mostly of migrant labourers, on a scale ‘never-seen-before’. While previous pandemics eroded economies by depleting farm labour, COVID crippled the economy by forcing closure of businesses and migration of skilled, semiskilled and unskilled labour. It will be naive to believe that migrant labourers will return any time soon and things will pick up from where it was left. 

Home bound migration doesn't mean that agricultural sector will benefit. All migrant labourers, back home, cannot be absorbed by domestic farming. Large number of them will find themselves out of work. Added to this will be the load of foreign returnees.  This unexpected convergence can also create food shortages. Such conditions are ideal to seed social unrest. Planners must be wary of such eventualities. 

Size Zero? 

Covid made ‘work from home’ an acceptable medium of organisational interaction. While companies saved from reduced infrastructural and operational costs it could also have improved productivity. Though it temporarily assured continuation of existing livelihood for those on its pay-rolls, heartless it may sound, it exposes weak links and gives organisations opportunities to right-size. Right-sizing is only a humane synonym for manpower reduction. Survival now necessitates jettisoning baggage.

Companies may sugar-coat termination with ‘furlough’ and short ‘garden leave’. As situation looks up, they will hire, but rarely re-hire. Hiring and staffing is likely to see a paradigm shift. Focussed on core-competencies and profitability, companies will look at ‘size-zero’ structures and outsource non-core activities. This is likely to present a new set of opportunities. Angel funding is also likely to surge. Reorienting and retraining will be the buzz word. 

Forex: Torrent to Trickle 

Lakhs of people employed abroad could return jobless, unsure of the flight back. Significant part of forex reserves was piled up by these very people. World’s highest flow of forex could soon become a trickle precipitating resource crunch. This could become a serious concern for the economy. The well accounted and production-based work culture they are accustomed to, if absorbed, can increase domestic productivity manifold. It can be the catalyst to actualise the “Make-in India” programme. The emerging market will be shaped by Covidian dynamics. Superficial bonhomie and camaraderie apart, covid, will trigger new market realignments. It presents us with both opportunities and challenges. If agile, India can grab markets abroad and even fill HR vacuums abroad. 

Adapt to Thrive

It is not only the manufacturing sector which has been hard hit. Inexplicably linked, each sector of the economy, has felt the impact.  Some will perish but others would survive. Those which adapt to emerging conditions would survive to thrive.

Sky and Sea

Restrictions, on international and domestic travel, might have grounded aircrafts and held ships at sea, but cargo still moves. Fuel and maintenance costs have plummeted. Up in the air, hovering costs have vanished and carbon footprints obliterated. At ports ships berth and leave faster having unloaded and loaded. But these capital-intensive investments are bleeding from ‘unkindest’ of covidian cuts. Survival and profitability would call for well-crafted consolidations and collaborations, mostly government supported. Sky is the limit and fathomless the opportunities.

Land

Land movement is the most affected. While human movement is still restricted, essentials continue to move, in fact, faster while white goods have been relegated. Prioritisation and categorisation of goods for interstate movement is redefining logistics. Source-to-destination containers are making logistics easier and faster. After initial panic that emptied out stores, shelves are full. Retailing has taken a new shape. Home delivery is the new normal. Households having experienced it under restricted mobility will not shun it even if controls are removed. There is no end to opportunities for logisticians.

Services

With, people mostly home bound, tour operators, mobility aggregators and hospitality providers have been hit hard. It will take, more than a while, before business gets back to usual. “Adapt’ will be the new success mantra and ingenuity the key. Those who can reorient, repackage and relaunch services fastest could have the early bird advantage. Others could learn from their ‘experience’.

It is also clear that nothing will remain untouched by COVID. everything will be redefined post COVID. Remotely connected function will be the accepted norm. Education, medicine, governance and every possible service will see paradigm shifts, all based on connectivity. it also offers chance for governments to individually track each citizen. The avenues are countless, advantages immense and if misused terrible.

Connectivity Providers

The ones who will dig gold will be those providing connectivity. With physical movements curtailed and likely to remain so, data connectivity will be the new gold mine. Market could coronate 5G. With digital transactions being the norm, business and business-related activities would primarily be transacted online. The potential is unimaginable.

Catapult

This is not the first-time mankind is encountering a catastrophe. We have seen and weathered many.This too, “we shall overcome”.  Economies too have experienced setback before. Each setback was like a catapult. It pulls economies back only to launch them even higher into the stratosphere.

‘Covidian Crisis’ is no different. It’s a sea of opportunities awaiting explorers. 

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[1] COVID-19- Shape of things to come, jacobshorizon.blogspot.com