DEVELOPED INDIA @2047: ASPIRATIONS, CHALLENGES AND CHOICES (PART -1)

 

Caveat. This article is a research paper in multiple parts. The subject demands such careful treatment. It draws inferences based on facts and figures. It doesn’t tow any political ideology.  It is not meant for casual reading. It is meant to educate the reader. Do not get inside expecting something sensational. Comments are welcome.  

Realisation

I was on vacation when the call came. Ms Rini George, Director of GIIMS, was on the other side requesting me to join the panel discussing the contemporary subject, Developed India 2047 Aspirations, Challenges, and Choices. The discussion was part of the ‘Leadership in Action' series hosted by the Global Institute of Management Studies located in Kochi. It took me some time to agree because the event was five days away and I needed time to prepare. I never engage in a discussion without reading up as much as possible about the subject. She insisted, and I agreed.

The topic was straightforward, but the chances of my being led astray by my own perceptions were very high. To prevent the subject from becoming the elephant to the blind man, I did something I thought was very smart. I circulated the subject in the WhatsApp groups that I am a member of and requested members to share their thoughts. These groups are very active and have members who vehemently articulate their opinions. I thought we could collectively look ahead to 2047, marking the hundredth milestone, on our country’s journey far into the future. I was certain that I would receive some brilliant ideas. Expectations and aspirations often suffer from excessive optimism. I was disappointed to see that only a very few responded. (credits at the end of the article). Meanwhile, the messages, mostly ‘forwards’, fast fingers succumbing to their temptations, in all these groups, continued unabated. The few responses and the large number of no-responses I received opened my eyes to the real challenge India faces. Most people do not bother.

This is the base document I prepared to go in for the discussion.

Long Years Ago

I had the opportunity to be selected and enrolled in a beautiful institution called Sainik School in Trivandrum. We were nine-year-old children, from different segments of society, plucked out of our homes and brought together in an entirely new environment. We wore the school uniform, lived together, forgetting our differences. We bonded like brothers. Looking back, I realised that our school truly embodied unity in diversity. At that impressionable age, living in an environment insulated from fragmenting forces, I could not have developed anything but a romanticised view of a free India forging forward. 

At school, we studied the ‘Tryst with Destiny’ speech.

“Long years ago, we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge not wholly, not in full measure, but substantially. At the stroke of midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new and when the soul of a nation long suppressed, finds utterance,” said Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru.

Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore’s poem “Where the Mind is Without Fear” was part of our prayerbook. I memorised the poem, originally published in 1910 in Bengali. It was translated into English in 1912 by Tagore himself.

Where the mind is without fear, and the head is held high 

Where knowledge is free,

Where the world has not been broken up 

into fragments by narrow domestic walls; 

Where words come out from the depths of truth; 

Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection; 

Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habit; 

Where the mind is led forward by thee into ever widening thought and action

Into that heaven of freedom, my father, let my country awake.

To me, the poem set the road for India’s journey to true freedom. Pandit Nehru's speech in the central hall was only a reminder of our journey ahead. A developed India is my dream. I continue dreaming of my country “waking up” into “that heaven of freedom.”

Understanding of Development

What do we understand by ‘developed’? 

Everything that we say or do comes from the value systems that we imbibed growing up. Much like the blindmen who went to ‘see’ the elephant, we tend to be coloured in our approach to evaluating development. A subject like development, with so many facets, can therefore have endless templates to view, understand and compare. When treated politically, discussions become meaningless debates riddled with claims and counterclaims, vitiating the meaningful discourse. I understand the difficulty of being apolitical when everything is so politicised and tends to be viewed through a prism of, “if not with us, you are against us.” I am also aware of the dangers of being politically unsuitable. I will attempt to keep the text data-driven because numbers give us an idea of our datum points, and thereby a sense of where we are. Although these can also be conveniently interpreted to fuel political claims, it does give us a sense of direction and how much we need to travel depending on how we want to view them. Let us first understand development in its most benign form.

Triangulation of Development

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) utilises a measure known as the Human Development Index (HDI) to map development. HDI is a geometric mean of three fundamental dimensions that collectively look beyond just creating wealth. These are health (life expectancy), education (years of schooling), and standard of living (GNI per capita). In simple terms, it means how long we live, how we contribute to our well-being, and how well we live.

Countries with Very High HDI (above 0.800) are often considered developed. An HDI of 0.80 indicates that a nation has achieved a high level across all three dimensions. A value of 0.700 – 0.799 is considered High HDI, and a value of 0.550 – 0.699 is considered Medium HDI. According to the latest reported value in the 2023/24 Human Development Report, based on 2022 data, India scores 0.644. According to it, we are in the Medium Human Development category.

Life Expectancy

Life expectancy, the first of the three factors, in developed countries is above 78 years. India is currently at 69.7 years. In 1947, afflicted with extreme poverty, widespread malnutrition, infectious diseases like malaria and tuberculosis, high infant mortality ranging between 150-200 deaths per 1,000 live births, a maternal mortality rate of about 2,000 per 100,000 live births, our life expectancy was less than 32 years. By 1975, we elevated it to 49.7. This is no mean feat, considering the growth in population from 340 million at independence to 361 million by 1951, 446 million by 1961, and 558 million by 1971. In 1975, our popiulation was 611 million with a life expectancy of 49.7. It was a remarkable turnaround by any standards.

Planners intially saw it as a population explosion, but later it turned out to be an asset. India’s economy is driven by the needs of 1.4 billion people. However, this human capital is about to lose its sheen. It is not growing anymore! According to data available in the public domain, India's total Fertility Rate (TFR), contrary to the frenzy created by politically vested interests, has fallen to 1.9 as of now. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 and indicates a long-term shift toward a shrinking population. Rural areas have hit the 2.1 replacement rate while urban areas have dropped to 1.5. Some experts feel the TFR would dip further. We are looking at a decline in national population growth, faster than we can think, in the coming decades. Dont worry. Our population is not reducing as yet. The population momentum we are on, would help us peak around 1.7 Billion between 2061 and 2065 and then only would it start reducing. Meanwhile, Indians have become a significant presence across the world. The sudden spurt in negative press, and pushback courtesy some over enthusiastic notwithstanding Indians were in demand across the world. The post-independence generation with access to education were schooled well and exposed to English. That brings us to the second dimension of HDI, education.

Education 

The UNDP measures Education as two elements. The first is Mean Years of Schooling. It is the average number of years of education completed by adults aged 25 years and older. The number 25 has been chosen because it is believed that most people would have finished formal education by the age of 25. It also indicates how long the current adult population has been educated. For a developed country, the Mean years are 12–14 years. India is now at 6–7 years. It may surprise us. We believe that most children have access to some school and they become literate. Unfortunately, perceptions can deceive. While we celebrate literacy as something humongous, the UN measures education from a template that looks at creating human capital, not just basic literacy. We tend to bloat claims and gloat over those bloats. A search on the internet reveals that more than 93,000 schools were closed in the country over the last 10 years. A detailed study shows that the maximum number of schools were closed in the most populous States. Therefore, it is not the reduction in the number of children but something else that is forcing school closures. To be fair to the diehard fans, there is a counterclaim that about 10,000 private schools were opened. the numbers must put all debates to rest. 

The second part of the education template is the ‘Expected Years of Schooling’. It indicates the total number of years of schooling a child entering school today is expected to receive, assuming current enrolment rates continue. In simple words, it tells us how long today’s children are expected to stay in school. In a developed country, children are expected to stay in the education system for 16–18 years. India is at 12. This aligns with our concept of literacy. This does not address the quality of education, skills, or employability of a person. Let me elucidate.

According to information available in the public domain, in 2018, one state advertised for filling up 62 posts of messengers in its police force. The post required candidates with only a 5th-grade qualification and the ability to ride a bicycle. Over 90,000 candidates, including 3,700 PhD holders and 50,000 graduates applied. In another state in 2025, over 9.76 lakh candidates, including 42 PhD scholars and 12,000 engineers, applied for 7,500 constable posts. In another state, for 53,000 vacancies for a peon, 25 lakh people applied. They included PhD holders. 

Why do people with such degrees apply for jobs that require much lesser qualifications? Is it because of the existing high rate of unemployment or are those degrees worthless? Whatever the reason, accept it or not, our education system is rotting from within. We have unrefusable proofs from the just concluded AI exhibition. Literate or illiterate, educated or not, people have to earn to live. We treat our degrees not as stamp of knowledge in anything but as entry passes to means of livelihood. This brings us to how much we earn to live, the third of the development triage.

GDP or GNI? 

We recently declared that we had surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world. We expect to surpass Germany and become the third-largest economy by 2028. We also plan to cross the 7.3 trillion mark by 2030. The figures cited refer to the Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a given year. It doesn't matter who owns the factory or whether the output is used domestically or not. If production occurs within the geographical boundaries of a country, the value contributes to its GDP. It is called nominal because the values measure the production in terms of the current market value and have not been adjusted for inflation or deflation. According to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, presented in the Economic Survey of 2025-26, India is projected to reach 4.5 trillion GDP with an expected growth of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent. This is impressive. The sheen could wear off if we adjust it against the depreciating rupee and inflation. The development triage, however, doesn’t speak of GDP. It measures Per Capita Gross National Income. We seldom hear about GNI, and data is hard to come by. 

While GDP is a reflection of the economic activities within the geographical limits of the country, what matters is how much we as citizens earn, get to live with and save. That is given by Gross National Product (GNP). GNP is the total income earned by a country’s citizens and companies, regardless of where they are located. It includes all that is earned by Indian citizens anywhere in the world and excludes income earned domestically by foreigners. The measure of a country's richness depends on the per capita income earned by its citizens. 

According to World Bank standards, countries with per capita GNI $1,135 or less   are considered low-income. Those in the $1,136 – $4,495 are Lower-middle income, those in the $4,496 – $13,935 category form the upper-middle income group. Those with a GNI of more than $13,935 per capita are called high-income. Many developed countries have reached figures well above $30,000. Based on the 2023-2024 data, the USA, with approximately 29.2 trillion GNI, has a per capita GNI of approximately $83,490, while China, with $18.6 trillion, has a per capita GNI of approximately $13,390-$13,730.

According to the figures available in the public domain, the projected nominal GNI for 25-26 for India is ₹357.1 Lakh Crores. This is the highest figure I could find. We have 1.47 billion people to account for. This comes to ₹2,40,000 to ₹2,50,000 per person. However, when it is converted to per capita figures, it comes to $2,680 per annum. Another calculation shows it as $1,385.52 per person. If someone believes most Indians earn more than two lakhs in a year, it is best considered a fallacy. Reasons? 

The strongest proof ironically comes from the government's claim of having provided free rations to 81.35 crore people through the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKY). These were given to the poorest of the poor and Priority Households. To be eligible for this facility, the combined annual family income in rural areas should be under ₹2 Lakh and in the urban areas, under ₹3 Lakh. Households with any member paying income tax, owning a four-wheeler/tractor, or having a 5 kVA+ generator are excluded. It means that 55 to 57% of the 147.2 crore population was supported with free food grains. Although we know that each such househoild has four or more earning members, let us consider each such family has only two persons. The average individual income immediately falls to less than ₹1 Lakh in the rural areas and ₹1.5 Lakhs in urban areas.  

If on the average every person earned above two lakh rupees every year, was this intervention required? There is certainly a mismatch. While it signals overflowing granaries it opens our eyes to persistent poverty and inegalitarian distribution of wealth. There is sufficient data available to support this claim.

We have a huge income disparity. According to reports, the top 1% of India's population holds 22.6% of the national income (GNI) and 40.1% of the total wealth, marking historically high levels of concentration. India is home to approximately 3,33,340 to 8,50,000 High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs) with a combined wealth exceeding $1.5 trillion in 2024. If the earnings of the top 1% are removed, the per capita income dramatically drops to approximately $1,128 – $2,190. According to the World Inequality Report 2026, the top 10% of earners in India receive about 58% of the total national income, and the bottom 50% of the population together earn only about 15% of the national income. Unfortunately, this gap seems to be growing. In effect, economically, too, we are not in a happy state if we look at it from the development triage.

To summarise where we are, in terms of the three dimensions of being a developed country, we have a long way to go. We need to increase life expectancy, the quality of schooling years, and genuinely increase inclusive per capita income five to six times. If we expand these dimensions a little more, we are looking at a list of our aspirations. 

Aspirations @2047

Looking at Developed India @ 2047, what should we aspire for?

We should individually grow richer, live longer, and healthier. We should be equipped to think rationally and make informed choices. We should be free to shape our own destiny. Timely justice must be guaranteed. Collectively, we should be able to live in harmony, unafraid of persecution for differences in a robust society where the rule of law reigns. As a nation we should be economically and militarily powerful and be at the international high table in a position to influence global policies. Development to be meaningful must be sustained over a long time. 

Making a list of aspirations is one of the easiest tasks. Aspirations could be many in every possible field. We can aspire for anything. We would like to be the Global Manufacturing hub, the Supply Chain fulcrum for the world, the cradle of science and technology, and a new age pioneer in Space and Defence Technology. We have expertise in managing large data and claim expertise in Digital Governance. In the age of AI, we can aspire to use it to propel us to global leadership. In the field of human resources, we are looking at universal healthcare. We have already labelled ourselves Vishwa Guru and are ceaselessly talking of Viksit Bharat, the Government of India's vision to transform India into a fully developed, self-reliant, and prosperous country by the 100^th anniversary of its independence. The program focuses on empowering the Youth (Yuva), Poor (Garib), Women (Mahilayen), and Farmers (Annadata).  The initiative aims for zero poverty, 100% skilled labour, high-quality healthcare and education, and achieveing a taget of 70% of women in the workforce.

There is no end to dreaming.  The list is endless. We can make an unending wish list of things to achieve. But to be realistic, one needs to first comprehend what is required to actualise those dreams. Then we must take stock of our integral competencies, capabilities, and conditions. This must be followed by identifying limiting factors and deficits. Creating narratives and window dressing data to aggressively manage perceptions is not a panacea for economic woes. Ground realities require practical remedies. A $20–30 trillion economy is of no use if the bottom 50 per cent have no stake in it. Skewed wealth distribution could have catastrophic consequences. Social harmony is the fundamental requirement for growth.

However, we seem to be wearing a sense of nationalism that doesnt want to hear anything but promise and pretention.  Therefore, we find ourselves in a collective denial mode. Anyone pointing out the truth risks being labelled anti-national. Yet, an honest appraisal of the state of affairs is the first step to setting goals and pursuing them. Masking deficits or screening them from the world, will only delay our progress.  

The Road Thus Far 

Moving the wheels of the economy initially would have required Herculean efforts, and navigating the way forward would have required tremendous foresight and perseverance. Over the last 66 years, I witnessed the significant strides India has made in science and technology. Sitting in my class during the evening study hours, I heard rockets from Thumba piercing the skies. We now have the most successful space launch programmes. In those times, we had one phone in a village. Then came the telecommunication revolution. Now we have each individual owning multiple phones. I enjoyed the consequences of the digital communication explosion. I saw the fruits of economic reforms. I saw the terrible food shortage of 1964-66. It inspired us to the Green and White revolutions. We marched towards food sufficiency. Now I see malls with countless food items. I also get to see poverty just outside the visible signs of affluence. If you ask me, havent you seen the homeless in Washington DC? Yes. I have seen. How does their misery help us rise? I am dreaming of a developed India.

While many good things happened, I have also witnessed the silent and violent, disruptive and divisive forces at work, relentlessly attempting to tear the societal fabric so unique to India. What were occasional flare-ups in the past have now become frequent and regular. I have seen justice limping along as cases pile up in our courts, as litigants wait for death and justice alike. I also have seen politics turn vengeful and vicious. I have heard honourable politcal speeches seeking growth and now get to hear rabid, divisive, vulgar outbursts. Sadly, the crowd seems to enjoy the venom.  When we look at 2047, we cannot close our eyes to these malignancies at work. Certainly, we have come a long way from 1947. But going ahead we urgently need sane approach.

Data Bits 

Before we address the challenges we as a nation face, I want you to reflect on a few important data bits relating to our human capital that I came across. These are available in the public domain and are attributed to Government sources. My interpretations might not agree with yours, especially if your views are politically coloured. However, the figures are there for you to check.

Over the past 14 years (2011–2024), about 2.06 million Indians have renounced Indian citizenship. Out of these, nearly 9,00,000 Indians gave up their citizenship between 2020 and 2024. Why should people give up citizenship? In simple terms, it suits them better to be out there.

We have about 18.8 lakh Indian students across 153 countries. While no definite figures are available, a survey shows that less than 25 % ever return. The Ghar vapsi (return) happens mostly because the host country refuses to accept their residency application. Why should we go for education abroad? I have seen some of these institutions abroad. They were nothing more than a hole in a wall, outlets swindling us out of our earnings, promising diplomas and certificates not worth the paper they are written on. They are nothing more than paid shortcuts to immigration, a con job made to look authentic. Some of our own people were making a killing. 

A search on the net would reveal that in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, US student visa (F-1) rejections reached a 10-year high, with 41% of applications denied - nearly double the rate from 2014. 2,79,000 out of 6,79,000 applications were  rejected. 74% of Indian applications were rejected by Canada in August 2025.  There is said to be a huge reduction in the number of such applications. It is not because our education system has become great overnight, but the mechanism abroad has seen through our purpose. Let us have an infinitely benevolent view. All these people have found the education system abroad serving their purpose, whatever it be. Given a chance, more will leave in droves.

The US has an estimated 7,25,000 undocumented Indian immigrants, making them the third-largest group of unauthorised immigrants in the US. The exact figures of how many have illegally left India will not be available. However, the public domain has enough data on those deported back to India.  Why do Indians want to leave our shores somehow?

In addition to these, 18.5 million Indians (in 2024) are believed to be working abroad. Those in Gulf countries account for approximately half of all Indian migrants. Together, they remit a significant chunk of the GNI. Without affront, we will have to accept that the data bits point to the fact that Indians are looking to leave our land for good, or at least for better pastures, as long as it is possible. They also find better avenues outside to earn their livelihood. This is a matter  directly related to human capital.

When it comes to human capital, is stopping migration the challenge? No. Creating conditions that make staying back more rewarding than migrating is the challenge. What are those debilitating conditions? Elevating the quality of our human capital is a major challenge. What are the factors limiting the enhancement of our human capital? 

When we examine capital inflows and retention, the picture is not that straight.  The record inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) also saw record-breaking foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows and high repatriation of capital during 2025. This huge transaction did not convert into an increase in per capita GNI. The caution from the World Inequality Lab on the decline in the quality of economic data in India notwithstanding, it is widely reported in the public domain that the wealthiest 1% of the Indian population controls over 40% of India's total wealth whereas the bottom 50% holds only 3% to 6.4% of the total wealth.  Approximately 64% of the total Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India comes from the bottom 50% of the population, while only 4% comes from the top 10%. What are the challenges with respect to per capita GNI? How do we tackle those? 

A developed India must navigate its way ahead in the world's choppy, rough  politcal weather. What are our challenges? Coming closer, what are the challenges in our neighbourhood? How do we tackle them?

We shall deal with them briefly in the next part.

Credits

I would like extend my gratitude to Reji Koduvath, Jagajeev, CN Suresh, Krishna Iyyer, VN Prasad, KR Suraraj, and TJ Zacharia for heeding to my call for inputs. You helped me refine my thoughts.

My gratitude to Mr Sreejith CEO, GIIMS and Ms Rini George, Director GIIMS for the platform.