06 APRIL – THE PLOT THICKENS AND DEADLINE CREEPS AMIDST INDIA'S PREDICAMENT

 

On 23 March, the President of the USA gave a new twist to the plot on the Iran War, making even his diehard fans gasp. And it did not stop there!  

On 20 Mar 2026, President Trump, at his benign best, considered the economic burdens of the world from Iran. Moved, he declared that, “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the terrorist regime of Iran.” Alongside signals of de-escalation, the Trump administration also announced the deployment of approximately 2,500 additional marines and three additional warships in the region.  The irony was not lost on anyone. 

On 21 Mar 2026, Trump took to Truth Social and declared that if Iran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants, “starting with the biggest one first.” Iran, in return, promised devastating retaliation on the desalination plants in the region if the USA dared to attack any of its power plants. In 24 hours, Trump went from de-escalation to threats and an ultimatum. The dire warning came a few hours after two Iranian missiles, a reply to Israel’s relentless barrage of missiles, hit Southern Israel. It is said to have injured more than 100 people. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised retribution on all fronts.  

On 23 March 2026, in a sudden move, barely hours before the 48-hour deadline expired, with no sign of any action whatsoever from Iran on the Hormuz front, Trump unilaterally extended it by five days. He attributed the military pause to “very good and productive conversations” with Iran.  Iran, however, denied knowledge of any such talks with the US.  

The followers camp called it a strategic pause for a bigger purpose, while detractors across the world called it another bluff. The Iranian press went to town, calling it an American climb-down under pressure. But knowing Trump, and his penchant for theatre, something must be cooking. Considering the troop movement and resource mobilisation, this pause should, in all likelihood, serve as a springboard. The efficacy of what is about to unfold would have to be seen. Something big, militarily, is certainly about to happen or at least being attempted.  

Pixels of the Plot 

The war, which started as an excursion, a short war to finish Iran, has entered its 4th week. To comprehend the incoherence in the plot and its absurdity ad infinitum, you will need a listing. 

Before June 2025. (Israeli Prime Minister) “Iran is weeks away from making a nuclear bomb.” 

20 Jun 2025. “We obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities. There is nothing left of their nuclear program." 

February 2026. They are only a few days or hours away from making a bomb, and we had to take it out. It is not about us. We are doing it for the world.  The attacks were successful in taking out the facilities. We killed a line of nuclear scientists in Iran. Attacks on the nuclear facilities of Iran continue. 

“We have finished their Air Force and Navy, but some of their submarines are still operating, and they are still firing missiles,” the Trump administration claimed. 

The US wanted to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war, and shipping was smooth and safe. America says Iran has closed it. Iran insists that the Strait is still open and ships that comply with Iranian terms continue to sail. Insurance companies are laughing their way to the banks. Meanwhile, fuel shortages are hitting the world.

Claims on neutralising Iran’s nuclear assets 

21 Mar 2026. The two-day deadline to reopen Hormuz, else… 

23 Mar 2026. A five-day extension to the deadline, shifting the deadline to 28 Mar. 

25 Mar 2026.   We have “won” the war. Iran is totally defeated. The war is “very complete”, claimed the President.  “This is just the beginning”, said his administration.  In the meantime, USS Dwight D Eisenhower sailed back to the US for refit. USS Gerald R Ford has returned to homeport after a major fire.  Both carriers are now “left out of battle.” USS Tripoli is said to be sailing into the region with troops, their boots destined for the grounds, who knows where.  

Location Tagged Leadership? 

Israel and the USA declared decapitation of the Iranian leadership. 40 of the topmost leaders were taken out in the first wave of assault. A string of assassinations continued, effectively destroying the chain of leadership.  Something stands out in the never-ending chain of high-profile assassinations. Every time a new leader’s name is announced, he becomes the name on the list of “to-be-assassinated”. 

Ever thought about how Israel can pull off assassinations of these people at will? 

Most people will give credit to the intelligence agencies of Israel. But how do they get the pinpoint locations of these leaders in real time?  To get a precision-guided munition to reach exactly where the intended target is at the right time is not an easy task. Certainly, the prospective target needs to be continuously tracked. The prospective target cannot be asked to wait for the missile to reach him. A missile taking off from a base in Israel or other places has to be continuously guided to the target. It means the prospective target is “location-tagged” and is unwittingly or inadvertently guiding the projectile to his own location. However deeply entrenched the mole is, it is not possible to get it right every time, each time, unless the locator is on the target, most likely worn on the person.

Are these leaders tricked into wearing or carrying some device that gives away their location?  

Ceasefire Negotiation

Wars normally start when talks fail, and wars conclude when talks succeed. We do not live in normal times anymore. The Iran war started when they announced the success of talks. Now they are talking about talks again. Without leaders, with whom does the USA negotiate? Anyway, talks are said to be going on somewhere between or amongst someone. 

Trump has no end to possibilities. He claimed that the USA is talking to somebody influential and powerful in the leadership who is asking for peace. He also claims that Iran is desperate for a ceasefire, and their demands look like a plea for surrender. He goes on to say that people talking to America are afraid of being killed by people if they come to know, and being killed by America if they don't talk to the USA. How does that eventually work? 

America has published their wish list for a ceasefire. So has Iran. The twain meet nowhere. Pakistan says it is facilitating indirect talks with Iran and the USA. Iran says it is talking to nobody. The plot got even more intriguing. Trump claimed to have received a precious gift, the details of which he did not disclose. On 26 March, he said, the gifts were oil tankers sailing out of the Strait. Trump also extended the five-day deadline, which was already an extension of a two-day ultimatum, by another five days. Then Trump did what he does best. He shifted the deadline to 06 Apr 2026. 

What emerges as facts beyond the social media propaganda aggressively loaded with claims, counterclaims, lies and fabrications, is a war devoid of clear aims and termination goals, without any exit strategy that is playing out under nuclear danger and threatening to turn into a water war anytime. Meanwhile, Iran's ability to get more missiles past the ‘dome’ on target has increased, even as Israel rains missiles over Iran. Israel seems to spend more to strike and get less out of each wave of attack, moving into the significant phase of diminishing returns.  

Is the troop build-up meant to scare Iran? Will Iran crumble in fear, or will it show resilience Americans have never encountered before? Are the troops destined for the prospective “Battle of Kharg”? (In my previous article, we had discussed the phenomenon of reinforcing failure.) As the world waits for the extension to the five-day ultimatum to run out, something big did happen, but away from the battlefield.  

Media Truth  

Trump tweets whatever and whenever he feels like. Depending on what he says, markets respond. There could be booty to gather or a blood bath on the bourse. Someone with insider information could make a killing, or the market could respond, literally wiping out trillions in assets without any change in fundamentals. After all, who cares for fundamentals when Truth Social rules? 

Trump has often stirred the market with his off-the-cuff statements. In April 2025, when tariffs were being imposed at will, Donald Trump took to Truth Social to say that it was “A great time to buy”. Hours later, the policy changes allowed markets to surge. Similarly, once the five-day extension was announced, the US market value is said to have increased by $750 billion to $800 billion. Although it is only wealth creation on paper unless booked as profit, we do not know how much of it has been converted into cash.  

Under normal circumstances, heavy trading takes place after an announcement. These are not normal times. Hectic trading is said to have taken place in oil futures, about 15 minutes before the announcement. Who would have resorted to aggressive selling of futures at that point? The question is echoing all over the world. Within the prevailing ecosystem, the trade, with all the symptoms of insider trading, would in all likelihood get feted as smart trading. With each tweet that Trump makes, there is talk about insider trading. Traders recognise that Trump escalates issues first and then backs off. Big funds in the market watch and bet accordingly. They call the phenomenon TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). 

Brent Crude is most beholden to TACO syndrome. Trump’s statements in January pushed crude from $63 to $70 a barrel. Once the war began, it quickly shot over $90. By the middle of March, Brent peaked at $120. Iran has forecast that it will reach $200. With the TACO announcement on 23 March, Brent plummeted to hover between $99 and $102. The only companies making steady and certain gains, in times of uncertainty and global suffering, are those biggies in the arms market. In the last three months alone, investors in defence firms like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics are said to have gained a whopping $28+ billion. 

President Trump’s fortune, although NOT directly linked to the war, around $3.9 billion in 2024, is now estimated to be around $6.5–7.3 billion. His biggest gains are said to come from World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency and decentralised finance (DeFi) venture launched in 2024, and closely associated with the Trump family.  

The world is now waiting with bated breath to see how the five-day extension to the five-day ultimatum, which was an extension to the two-day ultimatum, will end. The plot is going where no other plot has ventured to.  As the plot thickens, deadlines creep forward and logic pales, India has things to worry about. 

India’s Predicament 

23 March is an important day for Indians in the Iran War diary 2026. Prime Minister Modi addressed the Parliament on the war in Iran on 23 March. It was the first time our PM spoke, in public, about the war. Every Indian was anxious to know how the war had impacted India, and how it could in the days ahead. 

“The war in West Asia has created unprecedented economic, national security, and humanitarian challenges,” the PM said in the opening part of the speech that lasted a little more than 24 minutes. Mr Modi’s speech provides a framework for visualising the challenges the war presents to India. I think it is important to first have a glimpse of what he said before we start discussing. 

I have culled out and listed the issues that he mentioned in the speech. I have grouped them to facilitate assimilation and correlation. 

Safety and Security of Indian Citizens

1.         Safety of about 1 crore Indians in the region. 

 

2.         Safety of the very large number of Indian crew members on the commercial ships that sail in the region.

 

3.         Some unfortunate deaths and injuries. Their families have been helped. Evacuation of Indians. More than 3,75,000 Indians have safely returned to India since the war began. 1,000 Indians from Iran alone, of whom over 700 are young medical students. 

 

4.         CBSE has cancelled the examinations. The government is taking appropriate measures. 

Securing Energy

 

5.         A large quantity of essential items such as crude oil, gas, and fertilisers comes to India through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the Strait has become highly challenging since the war began.

 

6.         60% of crude is imported. There is uncertainty. 

 

7.         The government is focused on protecting ordinary citizens from hardship through measures such as prioritising domestic use of LPG and boosting its domestic production. 

 

8.         A smooth supply of petrol and diesel across the entire country is being ensured.

Government’s Record Card for the Last 11 Years 

9.         Energy diversification over the last decade is proving its worth in the current crisis. 

 

10.     India has expanded its energy import sources for crude oil, LNG, LPG, etc., from 27 countries to 41 countries over the past 11 years.

 

11.     India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is more than 53 lakh metric tonnes. Work is underway to build reserves exceeding 65 lakh metric tonnes, in addition to the separate reserves held by oil companies. 

 

12.     Refining capabilities have been increased over the last 11 years.

 

13.     India is in touch with many countries and will procure oil and gas from wherever possible.

 

14.     India is keeping an eye on the shipping routes in the Gulf and nearby to ensure our vessels carrying oil, gas, and fertilisers reach India safely. We are ensuring the safety of the maritime corridor. Due to such efforts, several of our ships that were stuck in the Strait of Hormuz have also arrived in India in recent days.

 

15.     Significant progress in Ethanol manufacture. Increased from 1% 20% blending in petrol in the last 10 to 11 years. This will reduce imports by 4.5 crore fewer barrels annually.

 

16.     If the railway had not been electrified as it is now, we would have required 180 crore barrels more annually.

 

17.     Metro lines, which were less than 250 Kms in 2014, are now over 1100 km.

 

18.     Impetus for electric mobility.  15000 electric buses have been given by the centre over the last 10 years. This will reduce dependence on oil.

 

19.     Energy is the backbone. The West Asia crisis is impacting the world and India.  The government is striving to reduce the impact on the country through Short-term, medium-term and long-term policies to tide over the crisis. All sectors requiring support are being given. 

Agriculture

 

20.     India’s farmers have ensured adequate foodgrain stocks.

 

21.     Government is working to facilitate proper Kharif sowing and has built robust emergency arrangements for fertilisers in recent years. 

 

22.     Six new urea plants have been commissioned in the last decade, adding over 76 lakh metric tonnes of annual production capacity, while domestic output of DAP and NPKS fertilisers has been increased by approximately 50 lakh metric tonnes, and fertiliser import sources have been diversified.  We have also expanded our options for the import of DAP and NPKS.

 

23.     The government is committed to empowering farmers through innovations like Made-in-India Nano Urea, the promotion of natural farming, and the distribution of over 22 lakh solar pumps under the PM-KUSUM scheme to reduce farmers’ dependence on diesel. 

Electricity Generation

 

24.     Summer heat will increase electricity demand. Adequate stock of coal for power generation is available. 

 

25.     Power transmission has been improved.

 

26.     Nuclear power generation and small hydro power generation have been given the green signal.

 

Diplomacy 

27.     Called for peace. Made clear that attacks on civilians, energy infrastructure, and commercial vessels are unacceptable.

 

Caution

 

28.     Law and order situation under watch. Security is being beefed up.

 

29.     Difficult global conditions caused by this war are likely to persist for a long time.

 

30.  The PM called upon the nation to remain prepared and united, as we did during COVID.

I will leave my readers to absorb the PM’s message first and correlate it with the situation. We will discuss in detail the “unprecedented economic, national security, and humanitarian challenges” for India in the next part. 

PS: Meanwhile, what do you think would be the challenges ahead for India? Please do post it in the comment section.