COVID: DÉJÀ VU OR JAMAIS VU?

Uncertain Spaces

Leaders of all types and stature say, “we are going through unprecedented times”. A truism in words, written and spoken, actively propagated. But are we really? Or is it Déjà vu or jamais vu?

Our mind space has been so forcibly captured by covid that all our thoughts and actions are centred around it. This disruptive phenomenon, like one-never-before, has left nothing of our existence untouched. Socio-economic and politico-religious divides apart, wary of covid, everybody individually and collectively behaves differently. As debates about its geographical origins rage, attributing religious, political, military, strategic or economic intentions lead it to ‘us’ versus ‘you’. Oblivious to the likelihood of themselves becoming part of statistics, politicians and profiteers make a killing. That is where the whole world is.

Closer home, as hospitals are overwhelmed, people scurry for beds. Even as a few ‘lucky-unlucky’ succeed in managing oxygen and ventilators, everyone seems to have lost someone near or dear. Angry accusations of poor governance and insensitivity meet with silence or counter accusations. Pyres burn relentlessly across the country and few, once our fellow beings, bloat and flow down rivers unclaimed, abandoned on their final journey. Death, reported, rumoured and denied, is growing. Is dignity in death, becoming luxury? Uncertainty, no more spirituality, is certainty.

What Future Beholds

The question that haunts us in private is “What will happen to us?” while in public we ask “How can we rein in the pandemic?”.

To visualise what will become of us and predict how the pandemic would progress, needs understanding of the virus, its inter-species relationships, and affliction statistics, from an evolutionary perspective. Revisiting history can help us put in place mechanisms to combat the menace. Till then we shall merely be reacting to situations. It needs patience to understand and perseverance to overcome pandemics. (This article too needs a patient read).

Perspective?

To help us understand interspecies relationships let us attempt to answer an entirely unrelated question, important nevertheless.

Did we domesticate wheat?

or

Did wheat domesticate us?

Having been conditioned to believe that we reign supreme over all other species on the planet, most of us would laugh at this ridiculous question. But if philosophers[1] are to be believed, wheat is a smart grass. It enticed and enslaved human species to colonise the world and anchored the nomadic Homo sapiens to geographical limits. Even if one disagrees, accepting its likelihood is being objective!

The truth is, each species attempts to genetically adapt itself and even behaviourally modify other species to ensure survival and sustenance Corona is no different. It will do everything to survive, sustain and thrive. This natural phenomenon must guide us to the solution to the pandemic.

Mutation an Existential Need

‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus -2[2]’ which causes ‘corona virus disease (Covid 19)’ needs live hosts. Within the dead, it dies. For the virus, human death is collateral damage. Thus, it needs to mutate till it becomes a strain that can hold humans alive and long. Therein lies our hope and despair. This statement seems unbelievable, only till we revisit the fate of pathogens that caused earlier pandemics.

While we host large number of microbes, without which we would be dead we also continually battle large number of pathogens. We don’t even realise the battles raging within, waged and won every day. Common cold is nothing but manifestation of an internal war against an intruding virus (Rhino virus, corona virus, respiratory syncytial virus, influenza etc). During cold, we are essentially dealing with a mutated viral load that uses us to help it replicate. Of the millions that contract common cold every year, most walk free after couple of days of misery. Very few die out of pneumonia. Virus, seldom sets out on suicidal missions. It needs living human hosts to be alive!

History Lessons

Bubonic plague of 1346 apart, the Spanish flu was the fiercest pandemic ever recorded. With more than 500 million afflictions and over 50 million dead, the Spanish flu, first detected in March 1918 came with the symptoms of fever, nausea, aches and diarrhoea. It came in three waves, the second being the deadliest. It drove down average life expectancy. Unmindful rulers and careless crowds ensured free passage helping it spread like wild fire. Gory descriptions of its impact apart, literature available on the subject, is silent about eradication of the virus. All it speaks about how the pandemic ended is “It killed till it could kill no more!”. All those who were not afflicted were already immune and those who survived became immune. The pandemic stopped when we and the virus found ways to coexist. Virus was never eradicated!

Déjà vu or Jamais vu?

The overwhelming scenes we witness today are mere replays of days, a century ago. Dependent on the viral load and dictated by one’s own immunity, people contract covid from known or unknown sources. Though symptoms manifest differently in each individual, these generally conform to symptoms of the earlier pandemic. Many, though infected remain asymptomatic and spread it. For those who become symptomatic, physiology dictates level of complications. Once, severely afflicted, survival depends on timeliness and quality of medical intervention. This must help us draw up action plan for isolation, immunisation and intervention. Isolation helps retard infection rate, reduce patient accumulation and stagger intervention requirements, preventing system overload and breakdown.   

Truth be Told

Covid 19 virus is here to stay. Cruel it may sound, each one of us, in all probability will face it. Most of us will host it, unknowingly and incident free. Many would suffer and overcome but few would succumb to it. It is the number of afflicted and needing medical intervention that would dictate the socio-political outcome.

The Magnitude

Doubts on recent socio-economic indices published by India notwithstanding, Government figures are considered authentic. India over the last three months have alarmingly moved up in numbers and may soon dislodge USA as the most afflicted. It is important to bear in mind that India started late and were amongst the first to announce victory, albeit prematurely.

Statistics:13 May 2021

COUNTRY	TOTAL CASES	AS % OF POPULATION	TOTAL DEATHS	AS % OF AFFLICTED
USA	3,35,86,136	10.10%	5,97,785	1.78%
FRANCE	58,21,668	8.90%	1,07,119	1.84%
BRAZIL	1,53,61,686	7.18%	4,28,256	2.79%
ITALY	41,31,078	6.84%	1,23,544	2.99%
UK	44,41,975	6.51%	1,27,640	2.87%
INDIA	2,37,03,665	1.70%	2,58,351	1.09%

Source: Worldometer

 

According to the figures above, Indian covid spreads slow and has low mortality. Widespread apprehensions about data fidelity, non-reporting and low testing notwithstanding, low rates could have led us to believe that we had put brakes on the spread. The line of thought, that Indians are generally immune also gained currency. Many quacks, alternative healers and even political outfits came up with practices beyond scientific logic. However, the second wave debunked immunity claims and deflated triumphalism. As covid rages, the naïve follow the ridiculous and bravado remains blind. 

Remember, scientists and doctors propagate home care to tide over covid issues for most, as according to them only a very miniscule percentage of those infected show distress and only a very low fraction of that need hospitalisation. At the currently recorded rate, even if ten percent (US rate) of the population gets afflicted, we could be looking at a cumulative infection of only about 13,91,64,220 (10% of 1,39,16,42,201- our population) and only 15,16,890 (1.09% of 1,39,64,220 – the current rate) deaths.

Even at the current low rate of affliction (1.7 %), our health system has floundered. Though administrations issue aggressive denials, getting beds in hospitals, ICU admissions, oxygen or ventilator remain a daunting task. At times it comes a little too late for the afflicted. Crematoriums across the country seems overwhelmed. Dumping the dead has been reported. Obviously, our infrastructure, is grossly inadequate even for the current load.

 

Hold Rates Not Numbers

It’s not the cumulative numbers that matter but the rate at which it grows that matters. Need of the hour is to decelerate rates of infection and fatality. Only if the government can decelerate the spread from the current figure of 2,37,03,665 infected and delay reaching 13,91,64,220, can it gain control of the situation. It must also put in place mechanisms to check mortality rates. The two areas of focus therefore are clearly defined, brakes on spread and cut mortality! Hold the rates, numbers will fall.

 

Prevention

Rate of infection depends on immunity of the population and the conditions that permit spread whereas mortality rate under the present conditions depend only on infrastructure.

Inherent immunity, derivative of genetics and healthy living, remains beyond government’s intervention at this stage. However, inducing immunity and reducing spread is well within the realms of public administration, diligently approached both are possible even now.

Allegations of misdoings and mega moneys involved in the vaccine regime are plenty. It is also known that those already vaccinated have also contracted the virus and succumbed. The numbers are large enough to raise eyebrows. Though the rapidly mutating virus is known to bypass the vaccine antibodies, the scientific community has unequivocally supported the idea that vaccination either prevents or diminishes the effects of covid. It serves us well to accept this theory unless we find another way out. Till then vaccine is the only way to protect ourselves. That is why countries world over are racing to vaccinate its citizens.

Vaccination Conundrum

The ever-elastic gap between the two prescribed doses from the initial 28 days to eight weeks to twelve hasn’t helped the cause of vaccination. Authorities quote the National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for Covid-19 (NEGVAC) which in turn used the data ‘particularly from UK” to support its claim that increasing the gap does a better job at shielding. Ironically UK it seems is reducing the gap to eight! Right or wrong, public associates this increasing elasticity to decreasing availability.

Poor planning and roll out of the vaccination programme have added to chaos and mistrust. It has truly promoted crowding all over the place. While only a few in the crowd can manage to get a jab, most can easily get the virus for free.

Pricing and sourcing strategy followed by the government added confusion and seeded allegations of corruption. Vaccine has become the latest stress in federal governance. The number of vaccines and sources prima facie looks a smart move but considering the logistics associated it can turn out to be a real challenge.

All these notwithstanding, we as a nation have adopted vaccination as a step in containing the pandemic and thus must go full steam ahead.

Programming Vaccination

The best way forward for us is universal vaccination. The government could consider: -

·     Eligibility.   Announcing centrally controlled, compulsory universal and free vaccination is the best way forward. However government may fix criteria to decide who should pay or get free.

·   Agency. Handing over the programme to an agency to monitor the scheme. If passport seva can be outsourced even this can be.

·       Equitable distribution of the short-supply vaccine is important. Government must publish the allocation methodology.

·      Seeing is believing. Make availability and allocation fully transparent visible and information made accessible.

·       Make state Governments and local body organisations stake holders and partners.

·       Incorporate local health centres and workers to administer vaccine, else at the current rate of vaccination we may never catch up with the virus.

·   The agency can schedule dozes and location and intimate the individual and the health worker. It’s a matter of rudimentary coding

·   Details of each individual who has taken the vaccine is already available and can be handed over to the agency.

·       Ban spot registration for any dose and prevent crowds.

·       Polio and earlier vaccination drives have reached homes with much lesser infrastructure and IT resources at command.

·       Take the vaccine to the door step or as near to the door as possible.

·       The entire programme can easily be choreographed depending on the availability of vaccine doses. Increase vaccine availability.

 Lockdown Compulsions

The most proven method of reining in the spread rate is lock down, keeping people away from each other. It drastically reduces spread in quick time and helps gain time to put in place combat procedures.

Reluctance of the central government to impose lockdown over the entire country can be linked to political expediency. But political mileage is possible only when body politic exists! Short sighted political decisions can in the long run become albatross around the neck. Hesitation now can haunt later. The hesitancy is intriguing especially when the government had claimed victory with the grip it took through the first lockdown. All the miseries and accusations associated with it had paled in comparison to the flat curve achieved. The government is well advised to declare central lockdown

With many states going in for lockdowns on their own, flattened curves and saved lives will be political victories for them to claim. It will also add to interstate tensions already evident in sharing of oxygen, vaccines and medicines.  Efficacy of patch work lockdowns at best remain temporary and questionable. Pussy footing adversities only worsens it. State wise lockdown is akin to few of the crew plugging the holes near them in a badly leaking boat, while others sit quiet hoping their efforts will save the boat. We may get ashore but with many dead, not because we did something great but virus chose to let us live. To bring the rates of infection (Test Positivity Rate) and with-it mortality, universal lockdown is inescapable.

The counter would be that we had a national lock down and graduated opening up before and about an year to beef up our medical infrastructure and treatment protocols, we are yet woefully short. It will cause untold miseries to the daily wage earners and the old and sick staying alone. The answer is that we now have adequate experiences, good, bad and ugly of the last extended lockdown. It doesn’t need much effort to codify what and how it should be done. With resolve we can make the lockdown less painful and more rewarding. A national lockdown should get the curve well under control, save lives. The dead doesn’t make an economy, the living does.

Confronting Challenges

The inadequacies of our public health system lay bare in the open. Iron hands and curbs can keep the living down but the dead are under no such compulsions. They do speak.

The requirement is to create adequate infrastructure. Infra upgrade needs time and effort. It’s not that every country has everything it needs. It is about making things available where it is required. We have working urban and rural models of excellent administration. The way BMC rose to the challenge is now public. Casting away one-upmanship, if need be, it can be adapted and adopted for each district or local governing bodies.

We Shall Overcome

The beauty of nature is that it balances out sooner than later. But allowing nature to decide how fast or slow it must deal with us is accepting failure. We have tremendous resolve as a people. If we together pull, we can beat Corona. The sacrifices made by our health workers at least will not go in vain.

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[1] Harari, Yual Noah. Sapiens: A brief history of humankind

[2] International committee on taxonomy of viruses announced this new name on 11 February 2020

CORONA TIMES AND INVADING CORPORATES

Silent Take-over?

Ever since 2020 dawned, world has been compulsively riveted to ‘covidian’ statistics - the infected, recovered and dead. Incidents of heroism, sacrifice and stupidity add realism and uncertainty to the emerging survival story. In its attempt to contain the pandemic through social distancing, the world locked itself down. To survive with minimal damages, organisations, that could remotely pursue business, took the ‘Work-From-Home’ (WFH) route, effectively taking over homes.  WFH keeps hopes alive but could soon be the new norm.

Irresistible Goldmine

Creating office Space at Home  

Irritable domestic disruptions notwithstanding, internet generally ensured seamless connectivity helping entities overcome restricted work-related movement, imposed by lock-down. Though organisations, especially production places mandating physical presence, reported loss of business, many where work could progress without such presence reported higher productivity. For many, especially IT related, it was ‘almost’ business-as-usual even with skeletal staffing. In addition to the unexpected savings in real estate and logistics costs, ‘lock-down’ provided, it also seems to have helped companies discover an irresistible goldmine - 24x7 willing WFH employees with their own real estate at no extra costs. This could trigger a ‘post-lockdown’ review of HR assets, pruning of rolls and redeployment of residual resources. Markets can also expect new paradigms in talent acquisitions and retention.

Spin-off and Trade-off

If crude oil price  is an indicator, world economy is in a tail spin and businesses will be devastated. In the ensuing bloodbath, companies will resort to drastic measures to stay afloat. Unprecedented unemployment would be the first manifestation. Sensing looming pink-slips, employees have become more productive during WFH, than ever before. If 24X7 captive workers and real estate savings are the beneficial spin-offs for organisations, employees could find themselves ending up in an unhealthy trade-off, surrendering personal life for job security. Fixed and flexi-timings could soon become ancient practices, as employees could find themselves tied to ‘any time’ schedules. Secure high-speed network and domestic workstation could soon become mandatory requirement for being hired. Once hired, bosses, colleagues and subordinates can virtually walk into the privacy of each other’s homes. Corporate invasion of private space would be complete. 

Sub-optimal Output 

Organisational activities are possible 24 X7. Application of individual’s physical and mental abilities without break, however sincere it may be, yields sub-optimal results. Shift systems and time limits were introduced to overcome this efficiency drop. Somehow, higher management, assuming indispensability, seems to have excluded itself from such consideration. Middle level follows suit and lower rungs relentlessly replicate rituals to remain relevant. 

Considering oneself superhuman to command astronomical compensations and accelerated career progression is acceptable. But everyone around is unfortunately bound by laws that define mortals. Fatigue is undeniably human and law of diminishing returns universally applicable. While ensuing uncertainty may keep employees endlessly logged in and force them to attend calls, apparently pleased, it will be naive to think that charades could be productive in the long run.

Organisations resorting to such practices, by design or inadvertently, is exploitative and not worth working for. Worthy assets would flee sooner or later for better pastures.

Work Space

“Work is worship”, the often-quoted proverb, lends sanctity to workplaces. Interpersonal work relationships are best developed at the workplace, uniform and insulated from home conditions. Differentials in work conditions, if any, are motivators. Time together, as a team helps develop bonding and unity of purpose, indispensable elements in evolving productive organisational culture. Despite reckonable short-term savings, WFH essentially erodes workplace dynamics and in the long run be injurious to the organisation.

Home – Nursery for Value Systems

Home is where employees recuperate between work shifts. It is where employee goes to return recharged for productivity. That is why great organisations go to great lengths to make family lives of their employees meaningful.

Homes, like workplaces, too have distinctive and sanctified identity. Irrespective of the locality, size and comfort levels, home is where values systems are sown. It is where customs, traditions and culture are nurtured. Tinkering with ‘home-atmosphere’ by inducing office into the four walls of the house has serious implications with unbearable future costs for the society. Such infringements can alter the way, children, the future generation, is raised. Adverse impact of parental absence from children is well documented. Bringing offices home, may physically place parents at home longer but effectively and perpetually steal parents from children.

Costs of Infringement

Managements are not legally responsible for creating well-balanced, just and productive society. But they certainly have an important role. Compensation to the employee is only a peripheral act of society building. Organisations may do well to remind itself that the very same children whose development they consciously impair today would either be their potential employees or clients. Companies must understand that businesses thrive most in just and happy societies.

Defining Paradigms

If businesses plan to continue with WFH, then there is a need to define parameters of the proposed paradigm, clearly enunciating socially acceptable terms of engagement. Individuals may be willing to compromise long-term societal needs out of sheer greedy ignorance, but organisations can ill afford to remain oblivious to societal needs.

Intention makes the difference.

POST COVIDIAN KERALA : ADDRESS CRUMBLE ZONES FOR A BETTER TOMORROW

Better Than The Best

God's Own Country

Kerala’s fight against COVID-19 has been remarkable. The efficiency with which the state managed the pandemic is trending on social media.In the ‘covidian’ fight, Kerala has proved to be better than the best. Miles ahead in many social indices, other Indian states will take eons to catch up with Kerala.

Crumble Zones

Amidst euphoria of ‘success’ against COVID, some disturbing headlines also appeared. These were about Karnataka sealing its borders, Tamil Nadu controlling flow of goods, dumping of 80,000 litres of milk, protest by migrant workers, ‘nokku kooli’ (gawking charges) problems, impending return of jobless expatriates, loss of revenue from liquor sales, death of patients denied medical care and an estimated loss of 80% GSDP, each a pointer to socio-economic crumble zones integral to the state.

Fragile and heavily dependent food security, inadequate industrial production, industry-unfriendly environment, ever looming return of expatriates, native unemployment amidst plentiful opportunities, alcoholism and alcohol dependent exchequer, ironic inadequacies of an efficient public health system and high per capita debt burden are visible crumble zones of the state. Unlike crumble zones in a car which absorb impact shocks and save occupants, socio-economic crumble zones can on impact wreak havoc.

Vulnerable Existence

Hardly any agricultural or industrial production to talk of, the rain-washed, ‘God’s own country’ is a consumer state dependent on the rest of the country for survival. Kerala neither produces enough for its own consumption nor provides environment conducive to industrial production. Kerala's economy is driven primarily by expatriate remittances. Alcohol and lottery earnings do help.

Tiller-Abandoned Land

While land reforms[1] transferred ‘land to the tillers’, it sounded death-knell to profitable agriculture. Micro holdings of cultivable land and dearth of native labour turned land fallow. Native dietary items like jackfruit and tubers like tapioca, yam, once abundant, are hardly cultivated. Kerala is dependent on others to fill its stomachs. Cash crops like rubber, pepper, coffee and cardamom are on laboured breath. Coir industry, once Malayalee monopoly and livelihood for thousands, is also almost dead. Incidentally, the state derives its name from ‘Kera’ or coconut. Cashew industry, once another monopoly, is on ventilator.

Hara-kiri, Malayalee Style

Unreasonable demands, unrelentingly bargained, along with ‘Nokku-kooli’ precipitated conditions unfavourable to industrial and agricultural investment. Labour disputes, with political patronage irrespective of ideologies, ‘locked-out’ many production facilities that eventually closed shop. Kerala became land of ‘bandhs’ and ‘hartals’. While Malayalees in Kerala ‘enjoyed’ committing economic hara-kiri, Non-resident Malayalees, especially expatriates toiled, many in inhuman conditions, to feed needs and greed back home.

Outward Migration

Education and literacy are not synonyms and don’t necessarily make people employable or create jobs. In Kerala, literacy created an environment where natives became reluctant to take up manual labour. Literates discarded traditional occupations and the few who did, became unaffordable and overbearing. Armed with useless degrees, Malayalees couldn’t find enough blue or white-collar jobs of their choice, at home. Local opportunities, in plenty, went unsubscribed.

Malayalees, aware of opportunities elsewhere and managed foothold, migrated, first a trickle, then a torrent. Lured by petro-dollars, they swarm the middle east, mostly doing the very work they shunned doing at home. Doctors, engineers, nurses, paramedics, technicians, anyone and everyone followed. By conservative estimates more than 25 lakh Malayalees live abroad, more than 18 lakhs in middle east alone. Wherever possible they become citizens.

Kerala finds itself in a very a peculiar situation. Plenty of able-bodied natives are unemployed and live off others while forty lakh migrants find work.

Dwindling Breed

One can easily take a Malayalee out of Kerala but never take Kerala out of a Malayalee. Today there is no country in the world without a Malayalee sweating it out, home sick and longing to comeback albeit on vacation.

If migration was not enough, Kerala suffers from the lowest decadal population growth rate[2] (4.9 % against a national figure of 17.6 %). Pathanamthitta has already posted negative figures. In a decade, few more will. Malayalee, natives of Sage Parasuam’s land, is now a dwindling breed.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’?

Outward migration and low birth rate have created a population vacuum. This vacuum and plentiful opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour triggered inward migration of labourers[3] from other states. Kerala is now a miniature India.

‘Vasudaiva kudumbakam’ is a great philosophy, as long as local and regional existence is not threatened. Four million people of non-native ethnicity packed into the small geographical confines will have serious impact on societal life. Cloistered in ghetto like communities for safety in numbers, migrants pose serious law and order challenges.

Signs of irrevocable demographical change, is openly visible on the streets. Native customs, traditions and culture are already stressed. Sooner than later, it could assume serious socio-ethnic and political tones. Assam-like situation in Kerala is not unlikely. It just needs a trigger.

But for now, most have fled the pandemic. Those who could not, will, as soon as travel is permitted. Though the exodus will temporarily cripple Kerala’s economy, serious thoughts needs to go into the matter.

Kerala Can

Given the conditions currently prevailing, if Karnataka and Tamil Nadu seal their borders, Keralites[4] could starve. Despite death of few critically ill patients and interventions by the centre, Karnataka refused to open national highways. This won’t be the last time, it happened. Armed with precedence, closure of all routes to and out of the state, in future crises, can’t be ruled out.

Inadequate food production and poor local employment opportunities has made Kerala a dependent consumer. Promotional sales of white goods and branded apparels in other states if compared would reveal that Kerala is a sellers’ delight, a hapless buyer. Goods and services, when profit driven, will flow.  Markets will force open even stubborn blocks. Even if it doesn’t, it is not an existential issue.

Food grain is a different issue. States can’t achieve self-reliance in everything, but adequacy in native food grains is achievable, especially when blessed with fertile lands. Given its abilities, if it resolves, Kerala can.

Food for Thought

In crisis situations, Kerala must NOT find itself short of grains and pulses. Impoverished can at best bargain alms. Self-sufficiency in food must be achieved. Terrace grown vegetables and symbolic farming cannot replace sustainable and profitable agriculture. Food adequacy can come about only if the entire bank of cultivable land comes under the plough. With eco-friendly technology under control and political will, Kerala can produce native food grains, enough and more for its population.

Agro-industry especially, those processing locally grown items must be promoted. If the state had adequate capability to collect, store and process milk, colossal wastage of milk could have been avoided during COVID. Opportunities for eco-friendly ventures are immense in Kerala. Societal support is what is required.

While tourism is a big-earner, it is difficult to sustain 

Backwaters remain the most favoured location
Photo- courtesy Chemicos(76-79)

it without long term ill-effects on local environment, customs and traditions. Money, however plenty, can’t buy food if there is nothing to eat. Moreover, with covid raging and re-infecting the world, when tourism would pick up remains a question. There is an urgent need to regulate tourism and look for alternative sources of income. Regulated tourism, is niche tourism and can earn more.

Labour Activism

Trade union serve as guardians against exploitation but collective bargaining beyond reasonable limits become counter-productive.

Eradication of parasitic activism can help create industry friendly environment. Contrary to official declarations, ‘nokku-kooli’ persists. Despite killing many a golden goose, few still venture home to roost.

Conducive environment helps germination of ideas and creation of wealth. If provided, many expatriates would return to invest and set up ventures. Public must understand that creation of wealth is not always at someone else’s cost. On the other hand, it creates opportunities and accrues wealth to many.

Adversity or Opportunity?

Migrant labour is inevitable for Kerala’s survival. Agriculture, construction, hospitality, housekeeping, tourism, in fact every aspect of economic activity, organized and unorganized, legal and illegal, has a large component of migrant labour. Industrial output of the state today is mostly moved by migrants, while local unions remain relevant lending brains to disruptions.

For 25 lakh Malayalees who migrated out for work, about a lakh or so busy in queues outside liquor vends and few lakhs living off the benevolence of others, there are about 40 lakh migrants in Kerala earning more than 25,000 crores annually. Even if all expatriates return, Kerala can absorb all of them, provided conditions become industry friendly and there is attitudinal change in the society.

A large number of expatriates, especially from the middle east is expected to return having lost their jobs. If the state administration accepts the challenge posed by migrant exodus as an opportunity, Kerala can kick-start the process of redemption, productively absorbing many returnees.

The crisis provides ideal conditions for change on a platter.

Decoding NREGA

Average daily wages for unskilled labour in the state hovers between Rs 600 to 800. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act provides limited days of work at much lesser wages. If four million migrant labourers can find daily work and remit home Rs 25,000 crores annually, why natives have to line up for NREGA doesn’t need much intellect to decipher.  Windfall awaits Kerala if it deploys NREGA initiatives to reclaim fallow lands.

Reorganizing Infrastructure

The state’s response to the floods and Nipa virus attack was commendable. Responsibility of loss of lives cannot be solely rested on insensitivity of a neighbouring state but must be accepted as symptom of deficiency in public health infrastructure.

State’s public health infrastructure must achieve self-sufficiency at district level itself. It will also eradicate ambulances flying on the roads, from one end of the state to the other sirens blaring, endangering many lives for saving one.

Alcoholism

Alcoholism is an issue that Kerala needs to address. This social problem stems from easy money and free time. Winding orderly queue outside liquor vends is not indicative of inherent discipline but of helpless dependence.

Keralites drank more than Rs 14,508 crore worth liquor in 2018-19, sending Rs 2,521 Crore into the coffers. While this may seem substantial, it amounts to just about 2.4% of the state income (compared to the projected revenue of Rs 103136 crores excluding borrowings).

The social cost inflicted by alcoholism is terrible and irredeemable. Prohibition is not the answer. It is time for Malayalees to tighten their belts (or mundu) to meet the challenge head on.

Hope Ahead

While it is easy to find faults and lament about the past, it is better to create history looking forward and putting in place appropriate policies. While geographical limitations can't be wished away, vulnerable dependence can be minimized. While population decline yields excellent social outcomes, inward migration should be controlled to safeguard native culture. While outward migration reaps economic dividends, encouraging natives to take up local opportunities may yield better economic dividends. Current situation requires great planning and greater societal participation.

Kerala is the best administered state in the country. It can also become the best place on the earth, truly Gods own country.

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[1] Kerala Land Reforms Act,1969.

[2] Economic Review 2016, spb.kerala.gov.in .

[3] 2.5 million according to a study by Gulati institute of finance and taxation 2013. A recent estimate pegs the figure at 4 million (V B Unnithan; Mathrubhumi.com ) repatriating to the tune of Rs 25,000 crores per annum to their states from Kerala.

[4] Population residing in Kerala inclusive of migrants.