Pixels of an Emerging Picture: Understanding Operation Sindoor (Part -1)

 

Terrorism in Kashmir 

India saw the horror of terrorism once again when the face of a newly married lady sitting desolate next to the body of her husband, shot dead in Kashmir, because he could not recite the Kalma, filled the TV screens. 22 people died there. Operation Sindoor was the reply, the retribution India had promised in revenge. The killing was not the first and might not be the last. The revenge was not the first and might not be the last. It was a new, horrific chapter with roots from the past and tentacles into the future. Let us delve into the past and crystal-gaze and attempt to understand a picture with ever-evolving pixels.

Background

Pakistan-sponsored terrorism visibly infected Kashmir first in 1987. How can anyone conclusively accuse Pakistan of complicity in terrorist violence in Kashmir? India has presented proof on multiple occasions to establish the complicity of the state of Pakistan in terror activities inside India. It has been of no use since no amount of effort can awaken one who is pretending to sleep. However, Pakistan itself has on many occasions made it publicly clear that it supports, finances, and provides logistics for terrorism in Kashmir.

Since 1987, Kashmir has swayed between flare-ups and Army intervention-induced lows, the lull, giving time and opportunity to terrorists to regroup and replan. The local population, always part of it, were victims, collateral damage, not-so-silent spectators, and facilitators. Successive governments focused on ‘Winning the Hearts and Minds’ (WHAM) of the local population through Operation- Sadbhavana, building infrastructure, schools, and providing means to earn steady incomes. When the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), promising stronger measures to curb terrorism,  rode to power at the Centre, with Mr Narendra Modi being sworn in as the PM on 29 May 2014, India looked forward to finding an end to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). 

Political Process

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of J& K were conducted in five phases, from 25 November 2014 to 20 December 2014. The election, marked by high-decibel emotions, saw 65.23% voter turnout. The results declared on 23 December 2014 did not allow any party to form the government independently. Protracted political negotiations between various parties continued until the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP, two fierce political rivals, formed an unexpected coalition government to rule the state based on a Common Minimum Programme (CMP). On 01 March 2015, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed of the PDP became the CM for the coalition. However, he passed away on 07 January 2016. After a brief spell of President’s rule, Ms Mehbooba Mufti, daughter of late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, took over as the CM on 04 Apr 2016 and continued till the BJP withdrew its support on 19 Jun 2018.

In the meantime, Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist organisation based in Pakistan, had started finding supporters in the Kashmir Valley. They recruited a social media-savvy young local lad named Burhan Wani. He exploited the power of social media, appearing without any hood or mask, and publicly called on the Kashmiri youth to rise against the Indian state. A neighbourhood lad for many, he became the new identifiable and relatable face of homegrown terrorism. Wani helped his handlers across the border find more local unemployed and disillusioned lads willing to be recruited, radicalised and used for terrorist activities in Kashmir. Kashmir now witnessed a new face of insurgency. 

The locals, in open defiance of law and seemingly unafraid of consequences, uncovered their faces while throwing stones at the army convoys and patrols. They even actively participated in facilitating the escape of terrorists trapped in the cordons established by the Army. 

Fresh Wave of Attacks

Belying expectations, terrorist attacks started getting more audacious.  On 5 December 2014, militants attacked an army camp in J&K, killing 11 security personnel. On 20 March 2015, two LeT militants attacked the Rajbagh police station in Kathua, Jammu. India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism; however, showing restraint, India did not initiate any direct military action against Pakistan in either incident.  On 30-31 December 2015, a group of 6 JeM terrorists from Pakistan entered India, hijacked a Police officer's SUV, and reached Pathankot. On 2 January 2016, they attacked the air base at Pathankot. All of them were neutralised in due course.  India, asking Pakistan for action against the perpetrators, shared dossiers of the attackers and demanded action from Pakistan. Unhappy with the response, India suspended peace talks with Pakistan till they took visible measures to contain terrorism. The Prime Minister promised a strong response, and the Home Minister assured the country of a befitting reply to the terrorists. However, India demonstrated restraint, and no military action was taken against Pakistan. Terrorism is a persistent ailment, but terrorists, however smart they might be, cannot persist for long. They have a short shelf life. Burhan Wani met his bullets on the 8th July 2016, in an encounter with Indian security forces in Kokernag of Anantnag. The Valley saw violent protests. 

Crime and Punishment

On 18 September 2016, four heavily armed terrorists of the Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked an Indian Army Brigade headquarters in Uri, killing 19 soldiers. India accused Pakistan of supporting the terrorist organisation, boycotted the SAARC meeting, and retaliated with pre-emptive military strikes across the line of control in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir on the intervening night of September 28-29, inflicting death on more than 150 terrorists. Even though it was widely believed that India had undertaken cross-border actions before, this was the first time that the Government of India publicly declared military action against Pakistan across the LoC. The Indian establishment believed that the publicised military action, widely known as the “Surgical Strike”, across the LoC would deter Pakistan from further sponsoring terrorism in India. The action satisfied the Indian public and bolstered the strong image of the Prime Minister, Mr Modi, who had vowed an appropriate response to the Uri attack. It also set a new benchmark for India's response to terrorist attacks on its soil. Pakistani soil, however, continued to nurture and promote cross-border terrorism relentlessly.

On 03 October 2016, terrorists attacked a Border Security Force camp in Baramulla, killing one BSF Soldier. On 29 November 2016, terrorists mounted an attack on an Army base in Nagrota, killing seven soldiers.  India did not take any military action across the border but intensified the counterinsurgency operations within Jammu and Kashmir. India accused Pakistan of fostering terrorism. Pakistan steadfastly refused its involvement in terrorist activities and stonewalled investigations into terrorist incidents in India, attributing those to non-state actors and calling themselves victims of terror. On 10 July 2017, militants attacked the Amarnath pilgrims, killing seven. Worse was yet to come.  

On 14 February 2019, Adil Ahamed, a Local Kashmiri youth and a Jaish-e-Mohammed operative, drove a Mahindra Scorpio SUV loaded with approximately 350 kg of explosives that included RDX and other high-grade explosives into a bus that was part of a CRPF convoy, killing 40 CRPF personnel. It was the deadliest terrorist attack since terrorism raised its head in Kashmir. The Government of India had no option but to respond. Having set the benchmark in the Uri incident with the Surgical Strike, the response had to be more severe and more visible than before. 

On the 26th February 2019, the Indian Air Force swung into action with what India called a non-military pre-emptive Strike, targeting terrorist facilities and taking care to avoid civilian and military assets. The attack resulted in the killing of 300 to 350 terrorists, mostly recruits being prepared for fidayeen attacks, their trainers and even senior terrorist commanders. Pakistan, however, denied having suffered any such losses. The Government of India, in one of the boldest political moves in Kashmir, revoked Article 370 through a Presidential order on 05 August 2019 and followed it with the passage of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019 in the Indian Parliament, effectively trifurcating J&K. India revoked the most favoured Nation status of Pakistan, imposed a 200% custom duty on Pakistani goods, and suspended cross LOC trade and bus services. 

Experts felt that India had finally established a credible deterrence against its persistent adversary, Pakistan and was seen to be willing to use it without remorse or hesitation. The red lines for India had been redrawn, and the threshold for retaliation redefined. It is widely believed that the incidents of terror have come down ever since. The Government declared that normalcy had finally been restored in Kashmir. While facts and figures provided by the Government may be contested, the fact that the tourism industry picked up and gained momentum in Kashmir remains unequivocal and uncontested, even by the government's harshest critics. The thriving tourism industry provided assured income to locals and largely weaned the youth away from becoming terror fodder. Peace seemed to have finally descended on Kashmir.

(To be continued in Part 2)