Pixels of an Emerging Picture: Understanding Operation Sindoor (Part – 2)

 

Anatomy Of The Act And Its Retribution

 

The Pahalgam Carnage and Its Retribution

Only on 15 April 2025, General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Army Chief, speaking at the first annual convention of Overseas Pakistanis in Islamabad, reminded the audience of the two-nation theory that brought Pakistan on the map of the world and the unbridgeable gap between Muslims and Hindus.  In his speech, filled predominantly with anti-India rhetoric, he called Kashmir the jugular vein of Pakistan. Whether Munir’s remarks triggered the incident or it was the go-ahead signal for a preplanned carnage will remain debatable, but it was a sign of something sinister cooking. In just seven days, it became visible.  

On 22 April 2025, four terrorists appeared from the shadows, in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in J&K, approached unarmed tourists enjoying the time of their lives, asked them to recite the Kalma, the Islamic declaration of faith, and shot point blank those men who could not, and told the shocked ladies accompanying them to tell the authorities what happened. The terrorists vanished into the shadows after taking the lives of 26 innocent Indian men, 25 of them non-Muslims. The lone Muslim, a local, who resisted them was killed. 

Shocked beyond words, and emotions flaring, Indians called for retribution. The Government of India, having delivered what was considered an “appropriate military response” on two occasions before, had no option but to deliver an even more spectacular, visible, and harsher response. The Prime Minister promised the Nation the Government’s resolve to pursue each man involved in the act and those who abetted or aided ‘to the ends of the earth,’ and bring them to suffer the consequences. The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility and cited its opposition to India allowing non-local settlements in Kashmir. Pakistan immediately washed its hands of the incident, calling it a freedom struggle. Pakistan reminded the Indians and the world at large that they were a nuclear power and ready to face any military challenges. The TRF retracted their claim, saying that their account had been hacked. The nation waited eagerly for the retribution to unfold. Meanwhile, television channels and social media were on fire with propaganda and counterpropaganda from both sides. A showdown was inevitable. 

Indian response was measured, proportional, and calibrated with increasing severity. The first ones came in the form of diplomatic moves. India suspended the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 until Pakistan stopped its support for cross-border terrorism. The treaty had survived all the wars and turbulence between the neighbours till then, and its suspension had the colours of a military-like swift counterattack.  India also imposed a travel ban for Pakistani nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, cancelled all existing visas, and issued a 48-hour departure order for Pakistani nationals in India. It also expelled Pakistan's defence attachés from the Pakistani High Commission in India and reduced the diplomatic staff strength from 55 to 30. On their part, Pakistan asked India to share the evidence to support the allegations and proposed an international inquiry by a third party. India rejected the call.  

In response to the Indian action, Pakistan suspended the Shimla agreement (1972), closed its air space to Indian Airline companies, reduced the Indian diplomatic strength, suspended all trade with India even through third countries, and declared that any diversion of water from the Indus water would be considered as an act of War. In the meantime, the two armies started to exchange heavy artillery fire at the border. Thereafter, events unfolded one after the other, unlike ever before. 

India imposed a temporary lockdown in Pahalgam, deployed army helicopters to track militants in the Pir Panjal range, and demolished the residences of two suspects linked to the attack. On 27 April, the local media in Muzaffarabad, PoJK reported flooding in the Jhelum River due to India’s unannounced release of water from the Uri Dam. The Chenab River in Sialkot, Pakistan, also saw a sharp decline in water levels, with satellite imagery showing a drying riverbed. Independent observers called it the first water war between the two neighbours.

As temperatures between the two rivals rose, the United Nations and the USA, besides other countries, called for restraint. India rejected mediation offers made by other countries. With each passing day, the call for military action against Pakistan became louder in India. The military response took time. On 5 May, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs announced a nationwide civil defence drill for May 7 across 244 districts, the first since 1971, involving air raid sirens, blackout measures, and civilian evacuation training. Pakistan closed schools in its Kashmir region and Punjab province. Pakistan announced that an Indian military action was imminent and vowed to teach India a lesson if it dared to. The element of surprise in any military action revolves around the quantum and type of force, geographical point of application, the mode and precise time of its delivery. 

Some experts opine that, by giving reaction time to Pakistan, India allowed the adversary to move its vulnerable terrorism assets away from all the likely points of response. The optics around the intended countermeasures certainly raised hopes amongst the domestic audience, but some experts feel that it gave away the surprise. If the initial advantage was with the aggressor, the respondent had the choice of time on targets. Armchair experts from the comforts of their cocoons debated for and against every aspect of the likely response while those in the real hot seats busied themselves shaping the response. Surprise was the key, and surprise was achieved.

On 7 May, Indians woke up to Operation Sindoor, the name conspicuous enough to indicate revenge for the lost vermilion of widowhood. Past midnight of 6 May, India rained missiles on 24 targets in nine locations, all in a matter of 25 minutes. India targeted the terrorist infrastructure in Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Bhimber, Gulpur, Chak Amru and Bag, located in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Indian munitions also reached mainland Pakistan. In Pakistan’s Punjab province, India targeted Markaz Subhan Allah, the JeM headquarters, and a significant economic hub in Bahawalpur, besides Markaz Taiba, a critical operational base for LeT located in Muridke, Mahmoona Joya facility linked to Hizbul Mujahideen in Sialkot, and a JeM facility in Sarjal Tehra Kalan. 

Indian missiles, glide bombs, and loitering munitions penetrated Pakistan’s elaborate air defence cover to find and decimate designated targets. India declared that its response was categorically against terrorist infrastructure, and claimed no Pakistani military facilities were hit. India also made it clear that the conflict would not escalate if Pakistan did not climb the escalatory ladder. That was not to be.

Pakistan called the Indian retaliation a “violation of international law.” It reported more than 30 civilian deaths, including a three-year-old girl and alleged that India targeted civilian areas, including mosques and a hydroelectric dam. Pakistan also claimed that it shot down three Indian Rafale jets, one Mig-29, one Su-30 MKI, and 77 Israeli-made Harop drones. India denied losses, claiming Pakistan’s jets were intercepted outside Indian airspace. This engagement was unlike any before. The military hardware mostly remained within its own borders, but payloads went deep within. Drones swarmed the skies at night from both sides, luring the adversary to expend valuable air defence resources. On 8-9 May night, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan al-Marsus targeting Indian cities, including Amritsar, with drones and missiles. India successfully neutralised all of them. India successfully carried out SEAD/DEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence / Destruction of Enemy Air Defence) operations targeting deep into Pakistan and crippling its air defence resources and airfields.  

Claims, counterclaims, threats, and counter-threats flooded the entire spectrum of media. Citizens from both sides joined the battle with fake videos and propaganda on their own. While the armies fought for military supremacy, common people, skilled in the use and misuse of the internet, lugged it out against each other in web space. The mere scale of web activity might turn one day be reported as unprecedented. Prolongation of the battle would have turned Pakistani airspace unusable for its own air force. An even bigger surprise was in store!

Mr Donald J Trump, the President of the USA, suddenly announced on Truth Social, his own SM platform handle, that the two countries would stop hostilities and cease fire. Soon after that, both countries announced cessation of military activities with effect from 5 PM IST that day. India made it clear that Operation Sindoor has not been concluded, but it was merely a cessation of military activities, subject to how Pakistan conducted itself, adding a caveat that any further acts of terror would be considered an act of war. India also categorically stated that the agreement was bilateral and initiated with the call of the Pakistani DGMO. However, it is widely believed that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia played a major role in the cessation of military activities. 

One group of defence analysts feel that the USA intervened after Pakistan raised concerns about India potentially targeting its nuclear command infrastructure. Some analysts feel that Pakistan had significantly lost its war-waging capability and  requested the USA to intervene. Many theories, including a few rooted in conspiracy, are floating around on social media. The media is full of debate on what prompted Trump to do it and what events led to it. The truth might emerge later in time. Everything in the realm of conjecture, the only thing certain is that the ceasefire was the answer to the prayers of people at the border. 

(To be continued in Part 3)