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| There is Sun Even Behind The Darkest Cloud |
"Are these your predictions
for the world? An interesting private message I got, in response to my mail on my
article, “Covid-19- Shape of things to come”[1]. What I wrote, under "Change
for Sure", is how I feel the world would emerge post COVID. Amidst predictions of doom and gloom,I see the post-covidian world boom and bloom.
I have
reasons.
Embedded in The Problem Rest its
Solutions
It was 1976 and ‘board exam’ was around the corner. Cheating was, neither
smart nor cool. Moderation non-existent and application questions in plenty,
inadequate preparation guaranteed failure. I was struggling with theorems of
congruent triangles and its applications. I was, and still am, miserable at memorising
by rote. Coincidence or act of God, I saw EN Prince, my batch mate revising ‘congruent
triangles’. I sought help. While explaining application of the theorem, he said "Look
carefully, you can find the solution within the problem". Too
young to realise how profound the statement is, teenagers both, we saw
in it nothing beyond a technique to answer.
In the journey of life, it helped
me weather many a storm.
Viral Campaign!
Societies across the world are struggling to contain the raging pandemic. The virus has found its vector to reach even Amazon jungles. Hundreds of thousands have already been infected.In due course, COVID will reach each one of us. Lock down will not stop but will certainly slow it down..
With medical services overwhelmed, a hundred thousand is already dead. Sadly, many more will die.Most of us will remain asymptomatic, some will suffer a little and few others would need intensive care but eventually Integral
and herd immunity will save most of us.
With world economy so entwined, nobody remains untouched. Assembly
lines have fallen silent, capacities idle, services unutilised, orders cancelled, loans un-serviced, unemployment sky rockets and markets are as good
as dead. Amidst unprecedented human displacement, world is filled with
suspicious uncertainty as rumours rage unabated.
Yet, emerge we will, albeit transformed. History is proof.
Global Afflictions and Outcomes
The plague of AD 541, the first recorded
pandemic, killed till there was ‘no one left to die’. The most afflicted were
labourers. Defying Justinian orders, workers demanded double and triple wages,
bringing down wealth disparities. Then, population surged and disparities resurfaced
with vengeance.
The Bubonic plague (1347-1351), seemed like
‘end of the world. Resultant shortage of labour, despite the crown’s ‘Ordinance
of Labour’, doubled income of the unskilled, reduced income disparity and
drove down real estate value. Soon, it was, as if nothing had happened.
The
Spanish flu of 1918 that killed 25 to 50 million people was not any different.
The great depression of 1929, wiped out 15%
of world GDP in 43 months, shrank
international trade, busted banks, contracted economies, generated unemployment and created unrest. The Indian freedom struggle officially commenced on
December 31, 1929, with Pandit Nehru unfurling the tricolour and
declaring complete independence as the goal of Indian National Congress. It also
triggered the civil disobedience movement. The recession of 2008 triggered by American subprime crisis, bled stock markets, wiped
out many MSMEs, crippled industries and rendered millions jobless. Efficient handling
of the crisis helped government of the day in India, ride back to power.
Pandemics, recessions and global crises
also trigger inventions, innovations and interventions. While Keynesian initiatives
by governments stimulate consumer demand and revitalise economies,
entrepreneurship mushrooms and blooms. Unfortunately, social disruption and
generalised mistrust associated with pandemic conditions, evident even today,
impact individuals, societies and conduct of business.
Impact 2020 Fatal Casualties
COVID -19, unlike previous pandemics, will
spread faster and reach farther. Connected world makes it inevitable. Despite overwhelmed
medical facilities, COVID is unlikely to cause as many deaths as the first two.
Indians, blessed with higher levels of integral immunity are likely to suffer
much lesser fatal casualties. Mere survival promises opportunities.
Exodus
As countries locked borders and expatriates
frantically tried to return, world witnessed large scale evacuation. India also
witnessed domestic displacement, mostly of migrant labourers, on a scale ‘never-seen-before’.
While previous pandemics eroded economies by depleting farm labour, COVID crippled
the economy by forcing closure of businesses and migration of skilled,
semiskilled and unskilled labour. It will be naive to believe that migrant
labourers will return any time soon and things will pick up from where it was
left.
Home bound migration doesn't mean that
agricultural sector will benefit. All migrant labourers, back home, cannot be
absorbed by domestic farming. Large number of them will find themselves out of
work. Added to this will be the load of foreign returnees. This unexpected convergence can also create
food shortages. Such conditions are ideal to seed social unrest. Planners must
be wary of such eventualities.
Size Zero?
Covid made ‘work from home’
an acceptable medium of organisational interaction. While companies saved from
reduced infrastructural and operational costs it could also have improved
productivity. Though it temporarily assured continuation of existing livelihood
for those on its pay-rolls, heartless it may sound, it exposes weak links and gives
organisations opportunities to right-size. Right-sizing is only a humane
synonym for manpower reduction. Survival now necessitates jettisoning baggage.
Companies may sugar-coat
termination with ‘furlough’ and short ‘garden leave’. As situation looks up,
they will hire, but rarely re-hire. Hiring and staffing is likely to see a
paradigm shift. Focussed on core-competencies and profitability, companies will
look at ‘size-zero’ structures and outsource non-core activities. This is
likely to present a new set of opportunities. Angel funding is also likely to
surge. Reorienting and retraining will be the buzz word.
Forex: Torrent to
Trickle
Lakhs of people employed abroad could
return jobless, unsure of the flight back. Significant part of forex reserves
was piled up by these very people. World’s highest flow of forex could soon
become a trickle precipitating resource crunch. This could become a serious
concern for the economy. The well accounted and production-based work culture
they are accustomed to, if absorbed, can increase domestic productivity
manifold. It can be the catalyst to actualise the “Make-in India” programme.
The emerging market will be shaped by Covidian dynamics. Superficial bonhomie
and camaraderie apart, covid, will trigger new market realignments. It presents
us with both opportunities and challenges. If agile, India can grab markets
abroad and even fill HR vacuums abroad.
Adapt to Thrive
It is not only the manufacturing sector which has been hard hit. Inexplicably
linked, each sector of the economy, has felt the impact. Some will perish but others would survive.
Those which adapt to emerging conditions would survive to thrive.
Sky and Sea
Restrictions, on international and domestic travel, might have
grounded aircrafts and held ships at sea, but cargo still moves. Fuel and
maintenance costs have plummeted. Up in the air, hovering costs have vanished
and carbon footprints obliterated. At ports ships berth and leave faster having
unloaded and loaded. But these capital-intensive investments are bleeding from
‘unkindest’ of covidian cuts. Survival and profitability would call for
well-crafted consolidations and collaborations, mostly government supported.
Sky is the limit and fathomless the opportunities.
Land
Land movement is the most affected. While human movement is still restricted,
essentials continue to move, in fact, faster while white goods have been
relegated. Prioritisation and categorisation of goods for interstate movement
is redefining logistics. Source-to-destination containers are making logistics
easier and faster. After initial panic that emptied out stores, shelves are
full. Retailing has taken a new shape. Home delivery is the new normal. Households
having experienced it under restricted mobility will not shun it even if
controls are removed. There is no end to opportunities for logisticians.
Services
With, people mostly home bound, tour operators, mobility aggregators
and hospitality providers have been hit hard. It will take, more than a while, before
business gets back to usual. “Adapt’ will be the new success mantra and ingenuity
the key. Those who can reorient, repackage and relaunch services fastest could
have the early bird advantage. Others could learn from their ‘experience’.
It is also clear that nothing will remain untouched by COVID. everything will be redefined post COVID. Remotely connected function will be the accepted norm. Education, medicine, governance and every possible service will see paradigm shifts, all based on connectivity. it also offers chance for governments to individually track each citizen. The avenues are countless, advantages immense and if misused terrible.
Connectivity Providers
The ones who will dig gold will be those providing connectivity.
With physical movements curtailed and likely to remain so, data connectivity will
be the new gold mine. Market could coronate 5G. With digital transactions being
the norm, business and business-related activities would primarily be
transacted online. The potential is unimaginable.
Catapult
This
is not the first-time mankind is encountering a catastrophe. We have seen and
weathered many.This too, “we shall overcome”. Economies too have experienced setback before.
Each setback was like a catapult. It pulls economies back only to launch them
even higher into the stratosphere.
‘Covidian Crisis’ is no different. It’s a sea of opportunities awaiting
explorers.
[1] COVID-19- Shape of things to come, jacobshorizon.blogspot.com
